Accuracy and sensitivity analysis for 54 models of computing hourly diffuse solar irradiation on clear sky

Fifty-four broadband models for computation of solar diffuse irradiation on horizontal surface were tested in Romania (South-Eastern Europe). The input data consist of surface meteorological data, column integrated data, and data derived from satellite measurements. The testing procedure is performed in 21 stages intended to provide information about the sensitivity of the models to various sets of input data. There is no model to be ranked “the best” for all sets of input data. However, some of the models performed better than others, in the sense that they were ranked among the best for most of the testing stages. The best models for solar diffuse radiation computation are, on equal footing, ASHRAE 2005 model (ASHRAE 2005) and King model (King and Buckius, Solar Energy 22:297–301, 1979). The second best model is MAC model (Davies, Bound Layer Meteor 9:33–52, 1975). Details about the performance of each model in the 21 testing stages are found in the Electronic Supplementary Material.     

Performance-based assessment of earthquake-induced catastrophic landslide hazard in liquefiable soils

This paper outlines a methodology for evaluating the likelihood of catastrophic landslide occurrence on gentle slopes in liquefiable soils during earthquake. The approach is based on a modified Newmark sliding block model of assessing the earthquake-induced undrained landslide displacements for conditions of no shear stress reversals on the sliding surface. By employing the shear resistance-displacement relationship from undrained monotonic ring shear tests, the simulation model incorporates the sensitivity of computed displacements to variations in yield acceleration. The proposed approach involves an examination of undrained seismic slope performance under various horizontal seismic waveforms scaled to different specific values of the peak earthquake acceleration. An example problem illustrates how the proposed methodology may be used to demarcate, based on the magnitude of permanent seismic displacement, the levels of low, moderate and high risk of catastrophic landslide on a gentle slope in a saturated cohesionless soil susceptible to liquefaction during earthquake.     

Seismic Retrofit of Gravity Retaining Walls for Residential Fills Using Ground Anchors

Failure of several gravity retaining walls in residential areas built on reclaimed land, during the October 23, 2004 Chuetsu earthquake in Niigata Prefecture, Japan, determined the authorities to consider the seismic retrofit of the walls in order to mitigate future similar disasters in the urban environment. This study addresses the effectiveness of ground anchors in improving the seismic performance of such retaining structures through a sliding block analysis of the seismic response of an anchored gravity retaining wall supporting a dry homogeneous fill slope subject to horizontal ground shaking. Sliding failure along the base of the wall and translational failure along a planar slip surface of the active wedge within the fill material behind the wall were considered in the formulation, whereas the anchor load was taken as a line load acting on the face of the gravity retaining wall. The effects of magnitude and orientation of anchor load on the yield acceleration of the wall-backfill system and seismically induced wall displacements were examined. It was found that for the same anchor orientation, the yield acceleration increases in a quasi-linear manner with increasing the anchor load, whereas an anchor load of a given magnitude acting at various orientations produces essentially identical yield accelerations. On the other hand, the computed earthquake-induced permanent displacements of the anchored gravity retaining wall decrease exponentially with increasing magnitude of anchor load. Additionally, the influence of backfill strength properties (e.g., internal friction angle) on the seismic wall displacement appears to diminish considerably for the anchored gravity retaining wall. A dynamic displacement analysis conducted for the anchored gravity retaining wall subjected to various seismic waveforms scaled to the same peak earthquake acceleration revealed a good correlation between the calculated permanent wall displacements and the Arias intensity parameter characterizing the input accelerogram.     

Multi-Objective Optimization of Managed Aquifer Recharge

This study demonstrates the utilization of a multi-objective hybrid global/local optimization algorithm for solving managed aquifer recharge (MAR) design problems, in which the decision variables included spatial arrangement of water injection and abstraction wells and time-variant rates of pumping and injection. The objective of the optimization was to maximize the efficiency of the MAR scheme, which includes both quantitative and qualitative aspects. The case study used to demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed approach is based on a published report on designing a real MAR site with defined aquifer properties, chemical groundwater characteristics as well as quality and volumes of injected water. The demonstration problems include steady state and transient scenarios. The steady state scenario demonstrates optimization of spatial arrangement of multiple injection and recovery wells, whereas the transient scenario was developed with the purpose of finding optimal regimes of water injection and recovery at a single location. Both problems were defined as multi-objective problems. The scenarios were simulated by applying coupled numerical groundwater flow and solute transport models: MODFLOW-2005 and MT3D-USGS. The applied optimization method was a combination of global (the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm [NSGA-2]) and local (the Nelder-Mead downhill simplex search algorithms). The analysis of the resulting Pareto optimal solutions led to the discovery of valuable patterns and dependencies between the decision variables, model properties, and problem objectives. Additionally, the performance of the traditional global and the hybrid optimization schemes were compared.     

Air temperature trend and the impact on winter wheat phenology in Romania

Air temperature variability and trends in Romania were analysed using monthly, seasonal, and annual datasets. Temperature data of winter wheat season were also analysed. The Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimate, the sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test, the Pettitt test and spatial and temporal hierarchical cluster analyses were used. First, the datasets were checked for changing points. The 106-year period was divided into two long periods of 100 years each to verify the importance of a very short interval in changing of general trends; after that it was divided into three shorter periods of 35–36 years each. The main conclusions are as follows: the 6 years making up the difference between the two long periods are very important in the context of the recent global warming; the three shorter periods analysis indicate some fluctuations rather than continuous warming. The latest short period is the most relevant for global warming. Spatial hierarchical cluster analysis indicated the existence of two distinctive groups. One of them, which includes stations in the south-east part of the country, seems to be influenced by the Black Sea surface temperature. Temporal hierarchical cluster analysis reveals that annual data series have the closest relation with the summer data series. Further, the impact of temperature changes on winter wheat phenology was determined using a phenology simulation performed with the model from the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer v. 4.0.2.0 platform. Earlier occurrences of anthesis and maturity were noticed for several regions in the country.     

Managed aquifer recharge(MAR)applications in China–achievements and challenges

Groundwater is of fundamental significance for human society,especially in semi-arid areas in China.However,due to the fast social and economic development,China has been suffering from the shortage of water resource.In this situation,managed aquifer recharge(MAR)was considered to be an effective measure for the sustainable management of groundwater resources.Since 1960 s,China successfully implemented many MAR schemes for different purposes such as restoration of groundwater tables,prevention of seawater intrusion,increasing urban water supplies and controlling land subsidence.From those successful experiences China developed a scientific and applicable system to implement MAR project.However,there were still many challenges in this field,for example,treated waste water had been barely used for recharge.The present review summarized the achievements in MAR applications in China as well as the associated challenges within the past 55 years before the year 2016.     

Petrographic evidence of the past occurrence of gas hydrates in the Tertiary Piedmont Basin (NW Italy)

Methane-derived rocks in Monferrato and the Tertiary Piedmont Basin (NW Italy) consist of seep carbonates, formed by gas seepage at the seafloor, and macroconcretions resulting from the cementation of buried sediments crossed by gas-rich fluids. These rocks are characterized by both negative δ¹³C values and a marked enrichment in δ¹⁸O. Petrographic features not commonly described and that point to enigmatic depositional and diagenetic conditions have been observed in both types of rocks: inhomogeneous distribution of cements within cavities; dolomite crystals floating within cavity-filling calcite spar; non-gravitational fabrics of internal sediments plastering cavity walls; open framework within microbial crusts. These features suggest the former presence of gas hydrates in sediments. During their dissociation, new space was formed and filled with authigenic carbonates or injected sediments. Analogous mechanisms of clathrate freeze-and-thaw processes have been inferred for the genesis of zebra and stromatactis structures and particular kinds of carbonate breccias. The term melt-seal structure is proposed for this kind of diagenetic structure. The fabrics of gas hydrates and the geochemical conditions of sediments, in turn depending on the relative rates of supply of methane-rich fluids and normal seawater, conditioned the final aspect of the rocks.