Modeling households’ decisions on reconstruction of houses damaged by earthquakes––Japanese case study

In this study, households’ decisions on reconstruction of damaged houses were modeled, using questionnaire data in Japan. Characteristics of households’ decisions were investigated using parameter estimation results. The effects of subsidizing policy were evaluated as follows. First, subsidy for rebuilding may be effective for the households whose houses were heavily damaged. Second, there is a possibility that subsidy accelerated rebuilding of houses by the households having children. Third, subsidy for rebuilding may not be effective for elderly people’s households and households in depopulated areas.     

Predictability of Interannual Variability in the Kuroshio Transport South of Japan Based on Wind Stress Data over the North Pacific

It is expected that a roughly two-year forecast of the Kuroshio transport variation can be made from a past record of wind stress data over the ocean, since it takes nearly ten years for the first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave to traverse the entire basin in the midlatitude North Pacific (∼30°N). We therefore investigated the predictability using an ocean general circulation model driven by the wind stress data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. Referring to a hindcast experiment as the control run, we carried out fifteen forecast experiments, the initial conditions of which are taken from the hindcast experiment at intervals of two years during the period from the end of 1969 to the end of 1997. Each of the forecast experiments is driven only by wind stress in the year preceding each experiment. The forecasted Kuroshio transport anomaly south of Japan agrees better with the hindcasted one during the first two years of the forecast in most cases. In some cases, however, significant disagreements occur, most of which are likely due to larger unpredictable variations caused by wind stress anomalies near Japan. At the end of forecast year 2, the anomaly correlation coefficient is about 0.7, and rms of the forecast error is smaller than rms of the hindcasted anomaly. These results indicate that the prediction of the interannual variability in the Kuroshio transport could be made two years in advance at a statistically significant level. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Measurements of directional spectrum of wind waves using an array of wave detectors Part II. Field observation

The directional spectrum of wind waves was observed using seven wave gauges at the marine observation tower. Directional spectrum was calculated by the method described inFujinawa (1974 a) which assures the high directional resolving power. Under the nearly uniform condition of the wind the process of wave development was studied by the use of the data of the directional spectrum. The analysis revealed that, 1) the mean wave direction does not necessarily coincide with the wind direction, 2) the directional spreading is much narrower than hitherto reported, 3) the growth rate is closely proportional to the square of cosine of the angle between the wave direction and the wind direction, 4) the resonancetype wave-wave interaction plays only minor role in the process of wave development for any wave component in the earlier stage of development and for the most rapidly developing component in the main stage of development.     

Growth and gonad production of the sea urchin Hemicentrotus pulcherrimus in the fucoid bed and algal turf in northern Japan

To clarify the differences in the growth and gonad size of the sea urchin Hemicentrotus pulcherrimus among algal sere, the study was conducted in June and July, and September 1998 at three fucoid beds in Oga and at three algal turfs in Hachimori, Akita Prefecture in northern Japan. The most rapid growth was observed in a large perennial fucoid bed at the climax stage. Growth in a small perennial Chondrus ocellatus‐dominated bed in algal turfs in the seral stage was then high. The slowest growth was observed in the small perennial Dictyopteris divaricata‐ and Laurencia spp.‐dominated beds which are known to possess chemicals which act as feeding deterrents against the sea urchins. The gonad index (gonad wet weight × 100/body wet weight) at a fucoid bed was high where standing crops exceeded 3 kg·m^?2. The gonad index in the Laurencia bed was lower than those at fucoid beds. These results suggest that growth and gonad production are affected by algal sere and differ among species of small perennial algae in the seral stage with or without chemical defense.     

Satellite detection of red tide in Ariake Sound, 1998–2001

High resolution SeaWiFS data was used to detect red tide events that occurred in the Ariake Sound, Japan, a small embayment known as one of the most productive areas in Japan. SeaWiFS chlorophyll data clearly showed that a large red tide event, which damaged seaweed (Nori) cultures, started early in December 2000 in Isahaya Bay, expanded to the whole sound and persisted to the end of February 2001. The monthly average of SeaWiFS data from May 1998 to December 2001 indicated that the chlorophyll peaks appeared twice a year, in early summer and in fall, after the peaks of rain and river discharge. The SeaWiFS data showed that the red tide event during 2000–2001 winter was part of the fall bloom; however, it started later and continued significantly longer than other years. Satellite ocean color data is useful to detect the red tide; however the algorithms require improvement to accurately estimate chlorophyll in highly turbid water and in red tide areas.     

Surface interpolation by a spline technique

A new method for a surface interpolation is proposed, in which the concept of splines under tension is applied. It is useful for the two-dimensional data analysis based on the non-linear fundamental equations in the physical oceanography.     

The content of selenium and its chemical form in sea water

By using the new fluorometric method of determination of the total selenium ( Se), Se (IV) and Se (VI), the content of selenium in sea weter was determined in the western North Pacific. Results showed that the content of Se in surface water ranged from 0.06 to 0.12g l^–1, while in deeper layers, the content increased to 0.20g l^–1. It was found that Se (IV) showed rather uniform distribution with depth, while Se (VI) increased with depth to about three times that in the surface. The ratio of Se (IV) to the Se ranged from 0.5 to 0.8 in the surface and 0.4 to 0.6 in the deep. The coexistence of the hexa- and tetravalent ions of selenium was confirmed both in surface and deep layers. Some results of observations on the content of selenium in the coastal areas of Japan were also reported.     

A new fluorometric method of analysis of selenium in sea water

A new method of determination of selenium and separation of Se(IV) and Se(VI) in sea water is described. The selenium is determined by fluorometric method using Se-DAN complex in cyclohexane media. Prior to the fluorometric determination, Se(IV) is separated from sea water by means of Se(IV)-DDTC complex which is adsorbed on the macroreticular resin. As to the separation of the total selenium from sea water sample, the reduction and coprecipitation method is used. Se(VI) is determined with the same method as used for the total selenium after the separation of Se(IV). The average recoveries are 92.5±1.3% for Se(IV) and 97.4±0.9% for Se. The standard deviation of analytical results is below 10%.     

Characteristics of a front formed by cooling of the sea surface and inflow of the fresh water

Two numerical studies (Endoh, 1977;Harashima et al., 1978) have been proposed on a front formed by a coupling effect of cooling of the sea surface and inflow of the fresh water in a vertical two-dimensional plane without the rotation of the earth. It is, however, not easy to interpret their numerical results. A simple interpretation will be proposed by an analytical study in this paper.It is found that local convection due to the density inversion, which is expressed by the convective adjustment of the vertical diffusion coefficient in the actual numerical calculations, plays an important role on the front formation.The characteristics of the front is also clarified in the case of steady state. Namely, simple functional dependences are obtained of the position and the width of the front, the horizontal and the vertical velocities and the distribution of the buoyancy and the salinity in the neighborhood of the front on the horizontal coordinate, the cooling rate, the eddy coefficients of diffusion and viscosity, the water depth and the vertically averaged horizontal fluxes of buoyancy and salinity.     

Risk assessment of TBT in the Japanese short-neck clam (Ruditapes philippinarum) of Tokyo Bay using a chemical fate model

A risk assessment of Tributyltin (TBT) in Tokyo Bay was conducted using the Margin of Exposure (MOE) method at the species level using the Japanese short-neck clam, Ruditapes philippinarum. The assessment endpoint was defined to protect R. philippinarum in Tokyo Bay from TBT (growth effects). A No Observed Effect Concentration (NOEC) for this species with respect to growth reduction induced by TBT was estimated from experimental results published in the scientific literature. Sources of TBT in this study were assumed to be commercial vessels in harbors and navigation routes. Concentrations of TBT in Tokyo Bay were estimated using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an ecosystem model and a chemical fate model. MOEs for this species were estimated for the years 1990, 2000, and 2007. Estimated MOEs for R. philippinarum for 1990, 2000, and 2007 were approximately 1–3, 10, and 100, respectively, indicating a declining temporal trend in the probability of adverse growth effects.A simplified software package called RAMTB was developed by incorporating the chemical fate model and the databases of seasonal flow fields and distributions of organic substances (phytoplankton and detritus) in Tokyo Bay, simulated by the hydrodynamic and ecological model, respectively.