GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap

Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.

Policy relevance

The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions.     

Estimation of dynamic friction and movement history of large landslides

We performed seismic waveform inversions and numerical landslide simulations of deep-seated landslides in Japan to understand the dynamic evolution of friction of the landslides. By comparing the forces obtained from a numerical simulation to those resolved from seismic waveform inversion, the coefficient of friction during sliding was well-constrained between 0.3 and 0.4 for landslides with volumes of 2–8 ×10⁶ m³. We obtained similar coefficients of friction for landslides with similar scale and geology, and they are consistent with the empirical relationship between the volume and dynamic coefficient of friction obtained from the past studies. This hybrid method of the numerical simulation and seismic waveform inversion shows the possibility of reproducing or predicting the movement of a large-scale landslide. Our numerical simulation allows us to estimate the velocity distribution for each time step. The maximum velocity at the center of mass is 12–36 m/s and is proportional to the square root of the elevation change at the center of mass of the landslide body, which suggests that they can be estimated from the initial DEMs. About 20% of the total potential energy is transferred to the kinetic energy in our volume range. The combination of the seismic waveform inversion and the numerical simulation helps to obtain the well-constrained dynamic coefficients of friction and velocity distribution during sliding, which will be used in numerical models to estimate the hazard of potential landslides.     

Mass-media coverage,its influence on public awareness of climate-change issues,and implications for Japan’s national campaign to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

We analyse Japanese newspaper coverage of global warming from January 1998 to July 2007 and how public opinion during parts of that period were influenced by newspaper coverage. We show that a dramatic increase in newspaper coverage of global warming from January 2007 correlated with an increase in public concern for the issue. Before January 2007, we find that coverage of global warming had an immediate but short-term influence on public concern. With such transitory high levels of media coverage we suggest that for more effective communication of climate change, strategies aimed at maintaining mass-media coverage of global warming are required.     

Modification of the High-Pressure-Type Chromites into the Low- Pressure-Type: Petrological Investigation of the Podiform Chromitites in the Luobusa Ophiolite, Tibet

<正>The podiform chromitites in the Luobusa ophiolite,Southern Tibet,have received much attention because of the presence of ultrahigh-pressure minerals,such as microdiamonds(Bai et al.,1993;Yang et al.,2007;Xu et al.,2009),coesite(Yang et al.,2007)and highly reduced metal phases(Bai et al.,2000;Robinson et al.,2004).The     

MULTIDISCIPLINARY INVESTIGATIONS ON THREE ROCK GLACIERS IN THE SWISS ALPS: LEGACIES AND FUTURE PERSPECTIVES

This paper recognizes the contribution of Professor Wilfried Haeberli for his inspiration and leadership in the field of permafrost science and his generous encouragement, both direct and indirect, to the ETH Researchers who have, through him, endeavoured to contribute to this fascinating research area. The multidisciplinary investigations described in this paper have focused on three rock glaciers, Muragl, Murtèl‐Corvatsch and Furggwanghorn, all of which have been subject to a varying degree of prior study, and which are continuing to attract new generations of researchers to understand and explain the processes and predict future behaviour. This paper marks a stage at which it is possible to summarize some advances in the state of the art and associated innovations that can be attributed to early motivation by Wilfried Haeberli and offers a tribute as well as gratitude for his ongoing feedback and advice. Some thoughts on the development of thermokarst due to water ponding and flow, and a conceptual model of geotechnical mechanisms that aim to explain some aspects of rock glacier kinematics, are also introduced.     

Sediment organic matter source estimation and ecological classification in the semi-enclosed Batan Bay Estuary,Philippines

The large organic matter flow in tropical coastal areas is recognized as an important process in the global carbon(C)cycle.However,the nature of organic matter flow in semi-enclosed tropical estuaries remains unclear due to the various environmental processes(tidal change,river flow,waves from the sea,and internal circulation)and organic matter sources therein.Thus,sediment organic matter(SOM)sources,and their distribution pattern,are key to understanding ecosystem material flow.Our research in the Batan Bay Estuary,Philippines,a semi-enclosed estuary under large mangrove deforestation,was conducted to determine ecosystem properties through analysis of C and nitrogen stable isotope ratios and environmental factors.First,we determined that mangrove litter,microphytobenthos,and phytoplankton are the main SOM sources in the Batan Bay Estuary.Second,the estuary was classified into three ecological zones(the Bay zone,Back-barrier zone,and River zone).In addition,we estimated SOM source ratios using the Stable Isotope Analysis in R package and determined different organic matter sources in different zone.The high ratios of mangrove litter as SOM indicate that a large amount of terrestrial plant organic matter remains despite the heavy mangrove deforestation that has occurred since the 1980s,and that the Back-barrier zone consists of a different type of ecosystem that promotes accumulation of C from mangrove litter and microphytobenthos.     

Mineralogy,Fluid Inclusions,and Sulfur Isotopes of the Huanzala Deposits,Peru: Early Skarn and Late Polymetallic Replacement Style Mineralizations

Carbonate‐replacement polymetallic mineralization at the Huanzala deposits (9°51′S, 77°00′W) was conducted in two contrasting stages that occurred in almost the same location. Early‐stage mineralization has a relation with a granodiorite porphyry stock, whereas the late‐stage mineralization is genetically associated with quartz porphyry sills. The early stage involved low to intermediate sulfidation Cu–Zn–(Pb) mineralization associated with metasomatic skarn, and the late stage involved high to intermediate sulfidation Cu–Zn–Pb–(Mn) mineralization associated with hydrothermal alteration characterized by paragonitic sericitization. The orebodies are hosted by steeply dipping (approximately 60°NE) Lower Cretaceous carbonate rocks in a relatively narrow range of approximately 4 km in horizontal extent and less than 1 km in depth. The pathway of the early‐stage brine‐derived fluids (300–>400°C, >33 wt% NaCl equivalent) along a plot of log against 1000/T is best explained by the progressive dual decline of the value and the temperature under rock‐buffering conditions; this decline saw the pathway progress through the stability field of pyrrhotite to reach that of pyrite and promoted a decrease in FeS from 14.5 to 1.6 mol% in the sphalerite. In contrast, an explanation for the pathway of the late‐stage fluids (140–290°C, 3–13 wt% NaCl equivalent) is given by an almost isothermal decline at approximately 270°C, with passing through the stability field of pyrite–bornite to reach that of chalcopyrite, promoting an increase in FeS from 0.1 to 1.6 mol% in the sphalerite, suggesting gas‐buffering conditions. The ore formation pressure records in the fluid inclusions illustrate an approximately 2‐km erosion during the roughly 2‐Myr total lifetime of the hydrothermal system.