Stochastic delineation of wellhead protection area in fractured aquifers and parametric sensitivity study

 In many countries, the setup of protection areas around every drinking water well was instituted at a national level in order to preserve the quality of water as well as the perennially of the resource. Wellhead protection surfaces have been defined using capture zones showing the area influenced by a well within a certain time. A stochastic method is developed for delineating time-related capture zones in fractured aquifers characterised by a low porosity and a high degree of fracturing. The flow velocity within the fractures is determined statistically depending on the distribution of the fracture features and the mass transfer solution is obtained through a particle tracking algorithm. Probabilistic capture zone curves are obtained as a function of the travel time of particles to the well and the percentage of particles apt to be extracted up to this time. A sensitivity study of fracture network parameters leads to the conclusion that orientations and aperture distribution of the fracture sets are of primary importance to the wellhead protection delineation.     

Influence of different GPS receiver antenna calibration models on geodetic positioning

To better understand how receiver antenna calibration models contribute to GPS positioning error budget, we compare station positions estimated with different calibration models: igs05.atx, igs08.atx and individual antenna calibrations. First, the impact of switching from the igs05.atx antenna calibration model to the igs08.atx antenna calibration model is investigated using the EUREF Permanent Network historical data set from 1996 until April 2011. It is confirmed that these position offsets can be effectively represented by the igs05.atx to igs08.atx latitude-dependent model. Then, we demonstrate that the position offsets resulting from the use of individual calibrations instead of type mean igs08.atx calibrations can reach up to 1 cm in the up component, while in the horizontal, the offsets generally stay below 4 mm. Finally, using six antennas individually calibrated by a robot as well as in an anechoic chamber, we observe a position agreement of 2 mm in the horizontal component and a bias of 5 mm in the up component. Larger position offsets, dependent on the antenna/radome type, are, however, found when these individual calibrations are compared to type mean calibrations of two tested antennas.     

Properties and Comparison of Some Kriging Sub-model Aggregation Methods

Mathematical Geosciences - Kriging is a widely employed technique across computer experiments, machine learning and geostatistics. An important challenge for kriging is its high costs when dealing...     

Calculating the long-term displacement rates of a normal fault from the high-resolution stratigraphic record (early Tethyan rifting, French Alps)

Displacement rates of normal faults deduced from stratigraphic data are often unreliable. Here we calculate the velocity of motion on a normal fault from the variations in accommodation potential on both sides of the fault within a high‐resolution time‐frame established by biostratigraphy and physical stratigraphy. Our example is the Ornon normal fault bounding the Early Jurassic Bourg‐d'Oisans Basin formed during Tethyan rifting. We show that motion on the fault was discontinuous when examined at high resolution and over a long time interval. During a first interval (Hettangian to Sinemurian Arietites bucklandi zone) a low rate of displacement (=202–423 m Myr^?1) coeval with diffused extensional deformation throughout the sedimentary basin is observed. A second interval of localized deformation (Early Sinemurian Caenisites turneri zone) is characterized by higher rates of displacement on the fault (1846 m Myr^?1). Our results concur with recent numerical models identifying the main stages of extensional deformation.     

The DynaMICCS perspective

The DynaMICCS mission is designed to probe and understand the dynamics of crucial regions of the Sun that determine solar variability, including the previously unexplored inner core, the radiative/convective zone interface layers, the photosphere/chromosphere layers and the low corona. The mission delivers data and knowledge that no other known mission provides for understanding space weather and space climate and for advancing stellar physics (internal dynamics) and fundamental physics (neutrino properties, atomic physics, gravitational moments...). The science objectives are achieved using Doppler and magnetic measurements of the solar surface, helioseismic and coronographic measurements, solar irradiance at different wavelengths and in-situ measurements of plasma/energetic particles/magnetic fields. The DynaMICCS payload uses an original concept studied by Thalès Alenia Space in the framework of the CNES call for formation flying missions: an external occultation of the solar light is obtained by putting an occulter spacecraft 150 m (or more) in front of a second spacecraft. The occulter spacecraft, a LEO platform of the mini sat class, e.g. PROTEUS, type carries the helioseismic and irradiance instruments and the formation flying technologies. The latter spacecraft of the same type carries a visible and infrared coronagraph for a unique observation of the solar corona and instrumentation for the study of the solar wind and imagers. This mission must guarantee long (one 11-year solar cycle) and continuous observations (duty cycle > 94%) of signals that can be very weak (the gravity mode detection supposes the measurement of velocity smaller than 1 mm/s). This assumes no interruption in observation and very stable thermal conditions. The preferred orbit therefore is the L1 orbit, which fits these requirements very well and is also an attractive environment for the spacecraft due to its low radiation and low perturbation (solar pressure) environment. This mission is secured by instrumental R and D activities during the present and coming years. Some prototypes of different instruments are already built (GOLFNG, SDM) and the performances will be checked before launch on the ground or in space through planned missions of CNES and PROBA ESA missions (PICARD, LYRA, maybe ASPIICS).     

Late Holocene upper bounds of flood magnitudes and twentieth century large floods in the ungauged, hyperarid alluvial Nahal Arava, Israel

The impact of large twentieth century floods on the riparian vegetation and channel morphology of the relatively wide anabranching and braided Nahal Arava, southern Israel, was documented as part of developing tools to (a) identify recent large floods, (b) determine these flood's respective magnitudes in alluvial ungauged streams, and (c) determine long-term upper bounds to flood stages and magnitudes. Along most of its course Nahal Paran, a major tributary that impacts the morphology, floods and sediments of Nahal Arava at the study reach, is a coarse-gravel, braided ephemeral stream. Downstream of the Arava–Paran confluence, aeolian and fluvial sand delivered from eastern Arava valley alters the channel morphology. The sand has accreted up to 2.5 m above the distinct current channels, facilitating the recording of large floods. This sand enhances the establishment of denser riparian vegetation (mainly Tamarix nilotica and Haloxylon persicum) that interacts with floods and affects stream morphology. A temporal association was found between specific floods recorded upstream and tree-ring ages of re-growth of flood-damaged tamarix trees (‘Sigafoos trees’) in the past 30 years. This association can be utilized for developing a twentieth century flood chronology in hyperarid ungauged basins in the region. The minimum magnitude of the largest flood that covered the entire channel width, estimated from flood deposits, is approximately 1700–1800 m³s^− 1. This is a larger magnitude than the largest gauged flood of 1150 m³s^− 1 that occurred in 1970 about 30 km upstream in Nahal Paran. Our estimation agrees with flood magnitude estimated from the regional envelope curve of the largest floods. Based on Holocene alluvial stratigraphy and OSL dating in the study reach we also conclude that flood stages did not reach the late Holocene ( 2.2 ka) surface and therefore we estimate a non-exceedance upper bound of  2000 m³s^− 1 flood magnitudes for Nahal Arava during that interval. This study indicates that in unfavorable areas the combination of hydrology, fluvial morphology and botanic evidence can increase our understanding of ungauged basins and give information crucial for hydrology planning.     

Determining the drivers of long‐term aridity variability: a southern African case study

This paper highlights the importance of differentiating between precipitation amount and moisture availability (‘humidity’/‘aridity’) when considering proxy records of climate change. While the terms are sometimes used interchangeably, moisture availability is determined by both (i) precipitation amount and (ii) temperature, through its influence on potential evapotranspiration. As many palaeoenvironmental proxies reflect changes in this water balance rather than purely precipitation amount, it is important to distinguish between the potential relative influences of precipitation and temperature if those records are to be interpreted in terms of climate mechanisms and/or compared with model outputs. As a case study, we explore how precipitation and temperature have determined moisture availability in South Africa's summer rainfall zone over the last 45 000 years. Using quantitative reconstructions of mean annual temperature, summer rainfall amount and an aridity index, our analysis reveals strong spatiotemporal variability in the relative influences of precipitation and temperature on aridity. Temperature is shown to have exerted a considerable and even dominant influence on moisture availability, resulting in elevated humidity during the last glacial period, despite significant reductions in precipitation amount.     

Quantification of both normal and right‐lateral late Quaternary activity along the Kongur Shan extensional system,Chinese Pamir

The Kongur Shan Extensional System (KES) is a ~250 km long normal fault system that bounds the Muji–Tashkorgan basin of the Chinese Pamir. It accommodates E–W extension due to the northward indentation of the Pamir salient, and its late Miocene activity has been the focus of tectonic studies. While the KES has a main normal component, ~WNW–ESE‐striking segments have an additional right‐lateral strike‐slip component. Here, we quantify late Quaternary horizontal and vertical slip rates at three locations along the KES, where active faults cut and offset abandoned geomorphic features. We find rates of >3–4 mm a^?1 (horizontal) along the western Muji fault in the north and of ~1.7 mm a^?1 (vertical) and ~1 mm a^?1 (horizontal) along the Kongur Shan fault in the south during the late Pleistocene. These rates are consistent with GPS and late Miocene rates, and imply that E–W extension in the Muji–Tashkorgan basin is faster in the north than in the south.