Effects of climate change on the groundwater system in the Grote-Nete catchment,Belgium

The effects of climate change on the groundwater systems in the Grote-Nete catchment, Belgium, covering an area of 525 km², is modeled using wet (greenhouse), cold or NATCC (North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Change) and dry climate scenarios. Low, central and high estimates of temperature changes are adopted for wet scenarios. Seasonal and annual water balance components including groundwater recharge are simulated using the WetSpass model, while mean annual groundwater elevations and discharge are simulated with a steady-state MODFLOW groundwater model. WetSpass results for the wet scenarios show that wet winters and drier summers are expected relative to the present situation. MODFLOW results for wet high scenario show groundwater levels increase by as much as 79 cm, which could affect the distribution and species richness of meadows. Results obtained for cold scenarios depict drier winters and wetter summers relative to the present. The dry scenarios predict dry conditions for the whole year. There is no recharge during the summer, which is mainly attributed to high evapotranspiration rates by forests and low precipitation. Average annual groundwater levels drop by 0.5 m, with maximum of 3.1 m on the eastern part of the Campine Plateau. This could endanger aquatic ecosystem, shrubs, and crop production.     

Community perceptions of forest–water relationships in the Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia

Community perception of forest–water relationship was gathered using participatory rural appraisal tools in four watersheds of the Blue Nile River Basin in Ethiopia. These were compared and contrasted with the observational records of forest cover and water flow. Upstream and downstream communities were assessed separately to check for differences in perception based on location within a watershed. The key result of the study was that people in the study watersheds had a range of perceptions about the forest–water relationship which were watershed specific. The perceptions were generally consistent with observational evidence from the same watersheds. This study highlighted the need for locale-specific approaches to land and water management in the Basin, as well as the potential value of using community perceptions to complement the observational records which can have spatial and temporal limitations.     

Large-scale GIS-based hydrogeological modeling of Flanders: a tool for groundwater management

For the implementation of the European Union Water Framework Directive (WFD), technological and scientific support are required. This paper presents a methodology to support a first step of the implementation of WFD, which is the delineation of groundwater bodies. The methodology consists of (1) the development of a complete and generally-accepted hydrogeological classification system for Flanders, named the HCOV code, (2) the development of a geographic information systems (GIS)-managed borehole database, and (3) the development of aquifer and aquitard models by means of a solid modeling approach. For each unit of the hydrogeological classification code for Flanders unit, GIS maps are generated for the three basic characteristics of hydrogeological layers: extent, base level and thickness, such that combined, the volume and extent of a hydrogeological layer is unambiguously defined. This GIS-based hydrogeological database has become a useful tool for groundwater management purposes and to provide the input for groundwater modeling.     

Searching for evidence of changes in extreme rainfall indices in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Extreme rainfall events have serious implications for economic sectors with a close link to climate such as agriculture and food security. This holds true in the Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia where communities rely on highly climate-sensitive rainfed subsistence farming for livelihoods. This study investigates changes in ten extreme rainfall indices over a period of 40 years (1970–2009) using 14 meteorological stations located in the CRV. The CRV consists of three landscape units: the valley floor, the escarpments, and the highlands all of which are considered in our data analysis. The Belg (March–May) and Kiremt (June–September) seasons are also considered in the analysis. The Mann-Kendall test was used to detect trends of the rainfall indices. The results indicated that at the annual time scale, more than half (57 %) of the stations showed significant trends in total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation days (R10mm). Only 7–35 % of stations showed significant trends, for the other rainfall indices. Spatially, the valley floor received increasing annual rainfall while the escarpments and the highlands received decreasing annual rainfall over the last 40 years. During Belg, 50 % of the stations showed significant increases in the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) in all parts of the CRV. However, most other rainfall indices during Belg showed no significant changes. During Kiremt, considering both significant and non-significant trends, almost all rainfall indices showed an increasing trend in the valley floor and a decreasing trend in the escarpment and highlands. During Belg and Kiremt, the CDD generally showed increasing tendency in the CRV.

     

Regionalization and association with global climate drivers of rainfall in the Rift Valley Lakes Basin of Ethiopia

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Regionalization and evaluation of associations of hydro-climatic variables with indices of global climate drivers are helpful for local-scale seasonal...     

Trends and Spatial Patterns of Drought Incidence in the Omo‐Ghibe River Basin,Ethiopia

The objective of this paper is to evaluate trends and spatial patterns of drought incidence across the Omo‐Ghibe River Basin using monthly rainfall data from eight stations for the period 1972–2007. It also aims to estimate the probability of drought episodes for a 100‐year period. Drought indices were generated using the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) computed at 3‐, 6‐, 12‐ and 24‐month time‐steps for three intensity classes: moderate, severe and extreme drought events. The Mann–Kendall's trend test and Sen's slope estimator were employed to detect temporal changes. The results show complex spatial patterns on the frequency and magnitude of drought events across the study area for all timescales and intensity classes. However, the total number of drought events for the three intensity classes for all timescales were larger in the southern lowlands, where there exists a serious water scarcity for the rain‐fed pastoral system, than in the northeastern part (around Wolaita Sodo area). In contrast to this, the longest and most extreme (SPI < ?4.0) drought events for all timescales were observed at Wolaita Sodo station. In a 100‐year period one could expect 57–69 drought events with 3 months' duration, 19–34 events with 6 months' duration, 9–16 events with 12 months' duration and 5–9 events with 24 months' duration. The SPI values show negative rainfall anomalies in the 1980s while positive anomalies have occurred in the 1990s and 2000s, which implies tendency towards decreasing drought events. The Mann–Kendall's trend test for the 12‐ and 24‐month timescales and for seasonal events also confirms this general trend.     

Dynamics in land cover and its effect on stream flow in the Chemoga watershed,Blue Nile basin,Ethiopia

The objective of this study was to analyse changes in stream flow patterns with reference to dynamics in land cover/use in a typical watershed, the Chemoga, in northwestern highland Ethiopia. The results show that, between 1960 and 1999, total annual stream flow decreased at a rate of 1 · 7 mm year⁻¹, whereas the annual rainfall decreased only at a rate of 0 · 29 mm year⁻¹. The decrease in the stream flow was more pronounced during the dry season (October to May), for which a statistically significant decline (0 · 6 mm year⁻¹) was observed while the corresponding rainfall showed no discernible trend. The wet season (June to September) rainfall and stream flow did not show any trends. Extreme low flows analysed at monthly and daily time steps reconfirmed that low flows declined with time, the changes being highly significant statistically. Between 1960 and 1999, the monthly rainfall and stream flow amounts of February (month of lowest long‐term mean flow) declined by 55% and 94% respectively. Similarly, minimum daily flows recorded during the three driest months (December to February) showed statistically highly significant declines over the same period. It declined from 0 · 6 m³ s⁻¹ to 0 · 2 m³ s⁻¹ in December, from 0 · 4 m³ s⁻¹ to 0 · 1 m³ s⁻¹ in January and from 0 · 4 m³ s⁻¹ to 0 · 02 m³ s⁻¹ in February (1 · 0 m³ s⁻¹ = 0 · 24 mm day⁻¹ in the Chemoga watershed). In contrast, extreme high flows analysed at monthly (for August) and daily (July to September) time steps did not reveal discernible trends. The observed adverse changes in the stream flow have partly resulted from changes in land cover/use and/or degradation of the watershed that involved destruction of natural vegetative covers, expansion of croplands, overgrazing and increased area under eucalypt plantations. The other contributory factor has been the increased dry‐season water abstraction to be expected from the increased human and livestock populations in the area. Given the significance of the stream flow as the only source of water to the local people, a set of measures aimed at reducing magnitudes of surface runoff generation and increasing groundwater recharge are required to sustain the water resource and maintain a balanced dry‐season flow in the watershed. Generally, an integrated watershed management approach, whereby the whole of the watershed can be holistically viewed and managed, would be desirable. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.