What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023.     

Numerical models of subduction and forearc deformation

Summary. Finite element models for shallow subduction produce realistic behaviour for a wide variety of mechanical strength and density distributions. Characteristic displacements are found to occur even without a discrete low-strength megathrust if there is a high-density subducted plate to localize lithospheric compression. A high-density plate is itself unnecessary in the presence of a low-strength megathrust and regional compression.
Successful finite element models produce an outer arc at the top of the trench slope, and forearc basin with geometry characteristic of natural analogues. These structural features occur by upward inelastic bending of the lithospheric wedge overlying the megathrust. This mechanically unstable behaviour may dissipate significant energy and cause the megathrust to migrate continuously by accretion, tectonic erosion, or abandonment and reinitiation farther offshore. Upward bending in the overriding plate is promoted by low megathrust dip, low megathrust shear strength, and high horizontal compression in the overriding plate.     

Multiple longshore sand bars in the upper Chesapeake Bay

In the upper Chesapeake Bay (Maryland, U.S.A.) field surveys were conducted at 18 multiple longshore sand bar sites. The multiple bar systems were found in water depths less than approximately 2 m (mean sea level), and exhibited mild bottom slopes of 0·0052 or less. The number of bars composing each system ranged from four to 17 and the spacing between the crests typically increased in the offshore direction, ranging from 12 to 70 m. Bar height also typically increased with distance offshore and ranged from 0·03 to 0·61 m. A grain size analysis of crest and trough sediment did not reveal any significant differences and the sediment was categorized as ‘fine sand’. A review of the literature data indicated that the Chesapeake Bay multiple bars possessed similar characteristics to those found in Gelding Bay (Baltic Sea); similarities in fetch, wave height and tidal range between the two bays may account for this finding. The surf-scaling parameter indicated that the multiple bar systems were extremely dissipative with regard to wave energy, and wave height appeared to be an important factor in controlling bar spacing and bar height. A multiple wave break point hypothesis was discussed as a possible mechanism for the formation of Chesapeake Bay multiple longshore bars, and limited observational evidence appeared to support such a mechanism.     

Simulation of adaptive optics for the Vacuum Tower Telescope

A simulation model of the adaptive optics of the German Vacuum Tower Telescope (VTT), Observatorio del Teide, Tenerife, is presented. The model uses modules from the integrated model of the Euro50 extremely large telescope, and includes submodels of a Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor, a de-formable mirror, a tip-tilt mirror, high-voltage amplifier low-pass filters, a reconstructor and a controller. We investigate the impact on the closed loop bandwidth of changes in controller configuration and certain system parameters, such as low pass filter bandwidth and camera integration and readout time. Control strategies were tested on simple models before implementation on the full VTT model. Using the models, different control strategies are compared.     

Transient‐state groundwater flow in various geometries with wells at arbitrary positions: analytical methods

We have developed a method for analytically solving the porous medium flow equation in many different geometries for horizontal (two‐dimensional), homogeneous and isotropic aquifers containing impermeable boundaries and any number of pumping or injection wells located at arbitrary positions within the system. Solutions and results are presented for rectangular and circular aquifers but the method presented here is easily extendible to many geometries. Results are also presented for systems where constant head boundary conditions can be emulated internal to the aquifer boundary. Recommendations for extensions of the present work are briefly discussed. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A multi‐level parallelized substructuring‐frontal solution for coupled thermo/hydro/mechanical problems in unsaturated soil

This paper proposes a multi‐level parallelized substructuring–frontal combined algorithm for the analysis of the problem of thermo/hydraulic/mechanical behaviour of unsaturated soil. Temperature, displacement, pore water pressure and pore air pressure are treated as the primary variables in a non‐linear analysis. Details are given firstly of the substructuring–frontal combined approach. The incorporation of the algorithm in a multi‐level parallel strategy is then discussed. The parallel processing can thus be carried out at different substructural levels. The method thus developed impacts, in a positive way, on both computer storage requirement and execution time. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mesoscale linear streaks on Mars: environments of dust entrainment

Variable surface albedo features on Mars are likely caused by the entrainment and deposition of dust by the wind. Most discrete markings are associated with topographic forms or with regional slopes that serve to alter the effective wind shear stress on the surface. Some of the largest variable features, here termed mesoscale linear streaks, are up to 400 km in length and repeatedly occur in one of the smoothest regions of Mars: Amazonis Planitia. Their orientations and apparent season of variability as observed by Viking and Mars Orbiter cameras indicate linear streak formation by enhanced surface wind stresses during regional or local dust storms and during the initial stages of global dust storms. They provide an example of the ability of large-scale winds, without significant local enhancement, to initiate dust motion on Mars. The sizes and spacing of the linear streaks may be controlled by boundary layer rolls. The repetitive formation of these streaks, over a span of more than 11 Mars years, gives one measure of the stability of Mars’ eolian processes.     

40Ar-39Ar dating of the H3 chondrite Sainte Rose

Abstract— A whole rock sample from the H3 chondrite Sainte Rose, which was discovered in 1983, was dated with the ⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar technique. From the K/Ca spectrum and from an analysis of the ³⁹Ar recoil effect we conclude that this meteorite has at least two distinguishable K-carriers: a low temperature, high-K/Ca, fine-grained carrier with a typical grain size of about 2 μm and a high temperature, low-K/Ca, more coarse-grained carrier. The K-Ar clocks of both were started 4.40 ± 0.01 Ga ago.     

A comparison of theoreticalCIV emission line strengths with active region observations obtained with the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS)

Theoretical line ratios involving 2s ² S - 3p ² P, 2p ² P - 3s ² S, and 2p ² S - 3d ² D transitions inCiv between 312 and 420 Å are presented. A comparison of these with solar active region observational data obtained during a rocket flight by the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS) reveals good agreement between theory and experiment, with discrepancies that average only 22%. This provides experimental support for the accuracy of the atomic data adopted in the line ratio calculations, and also resolves discrepancies found previously when the theoretical results were compared with solar data from the S082A instrument on boardSkylab. The potential usefulness of theCIV line ratios as electron temperature diagnostics for the solar transition region is briefly discussed.