Development of extended WRF variational data assimilation system (WRFDA) for WRF non-hydrostatic mesoscale model

The paper intends to present the development of the extended weather research forecasting data assimilation (WRFDA) system in the framework of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model core of weather research forecasting system (WRF-NMM), as an imperative aspect of numerical modeling studies. Though originally the WRFDA provides improved initial conditions for advanced research WRF, we have successfully developed a unified WRFDA utility that can be used by the WRF-NMM core, as well. After critical evaluation, it has been strategized to develop a code to merge WRFDA framework and WRF-NMM output. In this paper, we have provided a few selected implementations and initial results through single observation test, and background error statistics like eigenvalues, eigenvector and length scale among others, which showcase the successful development of extended WRFDA code for WRF-NMM model. Furthermore, the extended WRFDA system is applied for the forecast of three severe cyclonic storms: Nargis (27 April–3 May 2008), Aila (23–26 May 2009) and Jal (4–8 November 2010) formed over the Bay of Bengal. Model results are compared and contrasted within the analysis fields and later on with high-resolution model forecasts. The mean initial position error is reduced by 33% with WRFDA as compared to GFS analysis. The vector displacement errors in track forecast are reduced by 33, 31, 30 and 20% to 24, 48, 72 and 96 hr forecasts respectively, in data assimilation experiments as compared to control run. The model diagnostics indicates successful implementation of WRFDA within the WRF-NMM system.     

Climate change and adaptation: an integrated framework linking social and physical aspects in poorly-gauged regions

Various frameworks related to climate change and adaptations that have been developed to date have notable benefits as well as significant limitations. It is not always practical to implement advanced climate change frameworks in situations with limited data availability. Social aspects, such as people’s experience and perception, are often under-prioritized. Therefore, this study introduces an integrated framework linking social and physical aspects of climate change to assess its impacts on water resources and to evaluate differing adaptation options in poorly gauged basins. A case study of the Kali Gandaki River Basin (KGRB) in western Nepal is presented to demonstrate the applicability of this framework. Results of the study show that people of the mountainous Mustang district in the KGRB have perceived climate change or climate variability, its impacts on water resources, as well as other water-related issues and potential adaptations or responses. Furthermore, evaluation of people’s perception using available physical data confirms the increase in temperature and average annual discharge in the Kali Gandaki River as well as poor water use, as a major problem at all levels in the basin. Despite increasing water availability, a concurrent increase in water use is difficult due to topographic constraints on irrigation development. However, the impacts of climate change are particularly severe in Mustang, owing to the fact that a large proportion of the population depends on a climate-sensitive livelihood like agriculture. Therefore, various adaptation options are identified in the agricultural sector, and one relevant option is further evaluated. The framework developed in this study has the potential to be further applied to other poorly gauged basins.     

Foraminifers as indicators of marine pollution: a culture experiment with Rosalina leei

In order to develop a viable foraminiferal proxy for heavy metal pollutants, juvenile specimens of Rosalina leei were subjected to different mercury concentrations (0-180 ng/l). Initially considerable growth was observed in specimens kept in saline water having a mercury concentration up to 100 ng/l. But with the gradual increase in concentration of mercury the growth rate started decreasing. Total growth achieved was significantly lower in case of specimens kept at relatively higher mercury concentrations then those maintained in normal saline water. The most significant result of this experiment was the addition of abnormal chambers in the specimens kept at higher mercury concentration. Later the specimens kept at highest concentration (180 ng/l) were subjected to progressively increasing concentration of mercury to see the further effects and it was found that the specimens were still living at as high a mercury concentration as 260 ng/l although there was no growth.     

Teaching Spatial Thinking and Geospatial Technologies Through Citizen Mapping and Problem-Based Inquiry in Grades 7-12

Our project introduced students in grades 7 through 12 to spatial thinking and geospatial technologies in the context of challenges in their community. We used a mix of levels of inquiry to advance learning from teacher- to student-guided through a citizen mapping group activity. Student-suggested problem-based topics included parks and community gardens, crime, housing, and youth employment opportunities. Qualitative methods were used to evaluate students’ knowledge of spatial thinking and geospatial technologies, including map interpretation, a case study, daily exit slips, and interviews. Overall, the students’ awareness of their community, spatial thinking, and geospatial technologies increased as a result of participation.     

<Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar-<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar age of a lava flow from the Bhimashankar Formation,Giravali Ghat,Deccan Traps

We report here a⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar age of 66.0 ± 0.9 Ma (2σ) for a reversely magnetised tholeiitic lava flow from the Bhimashankar Formation (Fm.), Giravali Ghat, western Deccan province, India. This age is consistent with the view that the 1.8–2 km thick bottom part of the exposed basalt flow sequence in the Western Ghats was extruded very close to 67.4 Ma.     

Economics of Flood Protection in India

The peculiar rainfall pattern in Indiarenders the country highly vulnerable to floods. Forty million hectares of land, roughlyone-eighth of the country's geographical area, is prone to floods. Each year, floods cause extensive damage to life and property, losses being exacerbated by rapid population growth, unplanned development and unchecked environmental degradation. The country has been tackling the problem through structural and non-structural measures. While non-structural measures like flood forecasting aim at improving the preparedness to floods by seeking to keep people away from floodwaters, structural measures involve the construction of physical structures like embankments, dams, drainage channels, and reservoirs that prevent floodwaters from reaching potential damage centres. Almost 48% of the vulnerable area has been provided with reasonable protection, though floods continue to cause widespread losses year after year. This paper examines the incidence of floods and the trends in consequent losses in the eastern region of the country – one of the most vulnerable – with the objective of studying the efficacy of flood protection measures in the region. Based on a simple regression exercise for three highly vulnerable states in the region, the paper argues that flood protection measures have been inadequate in controlling losses and reducing vulnerability. Regressions for the three states over the period 1971 to 1996 indicate that the level of protection is an insignificant explanatory variable in explaining the number of people (adjusted for increases in density) affected by floods; while area affected, as an indicator of the intensity of floods remains the main loss-determining factor.     

Effect of estuarine flow on ocean circulation using a coupled coastal-bay estuarine model: an application to the 1999 Orissa cyclone

A coupled coastal-bay estuarine numerical model is described and applied to investigate the combination of wind-estuarine driven circulation off the Orissa coast. The model is based on coupling of a 2-dimensional estuarine model with a 3-dimensional coastal-bay model. The models are linked through the elevation at the interface. Using the coupled model, the numerical experiments are carried out to elicit the dynamical linking between the estuarine outflow and the coastal ocean to simulate the ensuing adjoining coastal circulation. During the southwest monsoon, it is noticed that the estuarine discharge from the northern head-bay river system and the river systems that join the Bay of Bengal along the Orissa coast would sufficiently modify the coastal circulation along the coast. Numerical experiments are also carried for the model simulation of surges generated by the 1999 Orissa cyclone. It is shown that the estuarine system would influence significantly on surge development and associated inundation through the rivers.     

Fast parameter estimation from the cosmic microwave background power spectrum

The statistical properties of a map of the primary fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) may be specified to high accuracy by a few thousand power spectra measurements, provided the fluctuations are Gaussian, yet the number of parameters relevant for the CMB is probably no more than ∼10–20. Consequently, there is a large degree of redundancy in the power spectrum data. In this paper, we show that the moped data compression technique can reduce the CMB power spectrum measurements to ∼10–20 numbers (one for each parameter), from which the cosmological parameters can be estimated virtually as accurately as from the complete power spectrum. Combined with recent advances in the speed of generation of theoretical power spectra, this offers opportunities for very fast parameter estimation from real and simulated CMB skies. The evaluation of the likelihood itself, at Planck resolution, is speeded up by factors up to ∼10⁸, ensuring that this step will not be the dominant part of the data analysis pipeline.