Spatio-temporal evolution of Coulomb stress in the Pacific slab inverted from the seismicity rate change and its tectonic interpretation in Hokkaido, Northern Japan

We estimated spatio-temporal evolution of Coulomb stress within the subducted Pacific slab in Hokkaido from the analysis of seismicity rate change. For this purpose we used earthquake catalog from the Institute of Seismology and Volcanology (ISV), Hokkaido University for the period 1993/4/1–2006/12/31 after relocating to compensate location errors due to the heterogeneous P- and S-wave structure beneath Hokkaido. We found that spatial pattern of Coulomb stress change inverted from the seismicity rate change is comparable with static change in Coulomb stress estimated from dislocation models. Our results and analyses reveal important insights on spatio-temporal pattern of deformation of the subducted Pacific slab in terms of Coulomb stress change. We found that the 2003 Tokachi Oki earthquake (Mw = 8.0) pervasively perturbed Coulomb stress in a regional scale with a significant impact to trigger the 2004 Kushiro Oki earthquake. The 2004 Kushiro Oki earthquake (Mw = 7.0) is another significant stressing event that changed the pattern of Coulomb stress in the area. We found that stressing events with magnitude smaller than 7.0 has minimal impact on Coulomb stress change in the Pacific slab. Similarly, comparatively deep focused large earthquakes could not change Coulomb stress significantly. Further the pattern of Coulomb stress change after the 2003 Tokachi Oki earthquake correlates the pattern of afterslip distribution in Hokkaido.     

Regional tourism and South-South economic cooperation

Regional tourism within developing countries is a growing phenomenon. Yet this aspect has been largely neglected in social science research as well as tourism planning. This paper highlights the general nature, scale and economic significance of regional tourism in three leading regions in Asia, Africa and Latin America. The topic is especially timely as economic self-reliance and cooperation are increasingly reiterated in the context of the emergence of regional groupings. A key question addressed is whether regional tourism development represents any new and viable prospects for regional economic improvement and partnership, especially compared to international tourism centred on attracting visitors from industrialized countries. Based on a critical assessment of the experiences of three regional blocs (ASEAN – the Association of South-East Asian Nations; SADC – the Southern African Development Community; and Mercosur – a common market comprising Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, with Chile being an associated member), the paper suggests that a basic appreciation of the prospects of regional tourism is not enough to produce perceptible benefits. Regional tourism development is occurring in a haphazard manner, with little attention to managing existing socio-economic inequalities and centre-periphery relations. The paper is based primarily on the review of secondary literature readily available to the author combined with a few documents obtained directly from different regional organizations or through Internet search. A small amount of material, especially concerning emerging tourism trends and outcomes, is drawn from a research project on national mass tourism in developing countries coordinated by the author at the United Nations Research Institute for Social Development, Geneva.     

Landslide occurrence and its relation with terrain factors in the Siwalik Hills,Nepal: case study of susceptibility assessment in three basins

Landslides in the three studied basins of the Siwalik Hills are not random in distribution; they tend to cluster in certain areas implying the control of certain in situ factors or their combination. Landslide controlling in situ factors were reviewed and analyzed from maps, aerial photos and imageries using GIS. Chi square analysis was carried out to test the significance of landslide distribution vis-à-vis in situ factors. Slope gradient and relative relief were consistently significant in landslide distribution. Geology, dip-topography relation, land use and land cover, and vegetation conditions appeared important in landslide occurrence in all three basins either in terms of area or count in any two basins. Slope aspect and altitude tested significant for landslide occurrence in at least two basins. However, upslope flow contributing area, drainage density and distance to lineament were found insignificant in all three basins. In situ factors that tested significant in any two basins were used for landslide susceptibility analysis using a bivariate statistical approach. The distribution of landslides strongly correlates with susceptibility indices. With in situ factors, landslide susceptibility had good correlation with slope gradient and relative relief. Incorporating calculated factor weight values from one basin to the other two basins, proxy susceptibility index maps were also prepared. A moderate to good positive correlation appeared between them implying certain range of confidence for replicating the result for whole of the Siwalik Hills. Slope gradient and relative relief can be used as proxy indicators of landslide susceptible areas in the Siwalik Hills.     

Optimization and uncertainty analysis of operational policies for multipurpose reservoir system

This paper presents optimization and uncertainty analysis of operation policies for Hirakud reservoir system in Orissa state, India. The Hirakud reservoir project serves multiple purposes such as flood control, irrigation and power generation in that order of priority. A 10-daily reservoir operation model is formulated to maximize annual hydropower production subjected to satisfying flood control restrictions, irrigation requirements, and various other physical and technical constraints. The reservoir operational model is solved by using elitist-mutated particle swarm optimization (EMPSO) method, and the uncertainty in release decisions and end-storages are analyzed. On comparing the annual hydropower production obtained by EMPSO method with historical annual hydropower, it is found that there is a greater chance of improving the system performance by optimally operating the reservoir system. The analysis also reveals that the inflow into reservoir is highly uncertain variable, which significantly influences the operational decisions for reservoir system. Hence, in order to account uncertainty in inflow, the reservoir operation model is solved for different exceedance probabilities of inflows. The uncertainty in inflows is represented through probability distributions such as normal, lognormal, exponential and generalized extreme value distributions; and the best fit model is selected to obtain inflows for different exceedance probabilities. Then the reservoir operation model is solved using EMPSO method to arrive at suitable operational policies corresponding to various inflow scenarios. The results show that the amount of annual hydropower generated decreases as the value of inflow exceedance probability increases. The obtained operational polices provides confidence in release decisions, therefore these could be useful for reservoir operation.     

On precursors to the Italy earthquake M.6.2 using VLF signal of NSY(45.9 kHz) received at Kiel Longwave Monitor

On August 24, 2016, an earthquake of magnitude 6.2 struck Central Italy (42.706°N and 13.223°E) at 1:36 UT. We present the results obtained from the US Navy VLF Transmitter’s NSY signal of 45.9 kHz transmitted from Niscemi, in the province of Sicily, Italy and received at the Kiel Longwave Monitor, Germany for 2016. We analysed the terminator times and their individual differences. We also analysed trends, dispersion and night time fluctuation which gave us a possible precursor the Italy earthquake. We found ionospheric perturbations in these parameters on 14th, 19th and 22nd of August, few days prior. Moreover, we filtered the possible effects due to lightning, storms and auroras if any.     

Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Himalayan medicinal plants of Liliaceae in Nepal

Predicting the potential distribution of medicinal plants in response to climate change is essential for their conservation and management. Contributing to the management program, this study aimed to predict the distribution of two threatened medicinal plants, Fritillaria cirrhosa and Lilium nepalense. The location of focal species gathered from herbarium specimen housed in different herbaria and online databases were geo-referenced and checked for spatial autocorrelation. The predictive environmental variables were selected, and MaxEnt software was used to model the current and future distributions of focal species. Four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) trajectories of the BCC-CSM1.1 model were used as the future (2050) projection layer. The MaxEnt modelling delineated the potential distribution of F. cirrhosa and L. nepalense. The current suitability is projected towards Central and Eastern Hilly/Mountainous regions. Both species gain maximum suitability in RCP 4.5 which decline towards other trajectories for L. nepalense. Overall, both the focal species shift towards the north-west, losing their potential habitat in hilly and lower mountainous regions by 2050 across all trajectories. Our results highlight the impact of future climate change on two threatened and valuable species. The results can be further useful to initiate farming of these medicinally and economically important species based on climatically suitable zone and for designing a germplasm conservation strategy.     

Policy without politics: technocratic control of climate change adaptation policy making in Nepal

As developing countries around the world formulate policies to address climate change, concerns remain as to whether the voices of those most exposed to climate risk are represented in those policies. Developing countries face significant challenges for contextualizing global-scale scientific research into national political dynamics and downscaling global frameworks to sub-national levels, where the most affected are presumed to live. This article critiques the ways in which the politics of representation and climate science are framed and pursued in the process of climate policy development, and contributes to an understanding of the relative effectiveness of globally framed, generic policy mechanisms in vulnerable and politically volatile contexts. Based on this analysis, it also outlines opportunities for the possibility of improving climate policy processes to contest technocratic framing and generic international adaptation solutions.

Policy relevance

Nepal's position as one of the countries most at risk from climate change in the Himalayas has spurred significant international support to craft climate policy responses over the past few years. Focusing on the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) and the Climate Change Policy, this article examines the extent to which internationally and scientifically framed climate policy in Nepal recognizes the unfolding political mobilizations around the demand for a representative state and equitable adaptation to climate risks. This is particularly important in Nepal, where political unrest in the post-conflict transition after the end of the civil war in 2006 has focused around struggles over representation for those historically on the political margins. Arguing that vulnerability to climate risk is produced in conjunction with social and political conditions, and that not everyone in the same locality is equally vulnerable, we demonstrate the multi-faceted nature of the politics of representation for climate policy making in Nepal. However, so far, this policy making has primarily been shaped through a technocratic framing that avoids political contestations and downplays the demand for inclusive and deliberative processes. Based on this analysis, we identify the need for a flexible, contextually grounded, and multi-scalar approach to political representation while also emphasizing the need for downscaling climate science that can inform policy development and implementation to achieve fair and effective adaptation to climate change.     

Elevational distribution of butterflies in the Himalayas: a case study from Langtang National Park,Nepal

Mountain ecosystems are relatively more vulnerable to climate change since human induced climate change is projected to be higher at high altitudes and latitudes. Climate change induced effects related to glacial response and water hazards have been documented in the Himalayas in recent years, yet studies regarding species’ response to climate change are largely lacking from the mountains and Himalayas of Nepal. Changes in distribution and latitudinal/altitudinal range shift, which are primary adaptive responses to climate change in many species, are largely unknown due to unavailability of adequate data from the past. In this study, we explored the elevational distribution of butterflies in Langtang Village Development Committee (VDC) of Langtang National park; a park located in the high altitudes of Nepal. We found a decreasing species richness pattern along the elevational gradient considered here. Interestingly, elevation did not appear to have a significant effect on the altitudinal distribution of butterflies at family level. Also, distribution of butterflies in the area was independent of habitat type, at family level. Besides, we employed indicator group analysis (at family level) and noticed that butterfly families Papilionidae, Riodinidae, and Nymphalidae are significantly associated to high, medium and low elevational zone making them indicator butterfly family for those elevational zones, respectively. We expect that this study could serve as a baseline information for future studies regarding climate change effects and range shifts and provide avenues for further exploration of butterflies in the high altitudes of Nepal.