Maximum Earthquakes in Future Time Intervals

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Abstract—The paper addresses the problems associated with the maximum earthquakes in a seismically active region. Pisarenko and Rodkin (2009; 2010;...     

Assessment of earthquake hazard for the northwestern Vietnam from geological and geophysical data using an original program package

The highest seismic activity in Vietnam is observed in the northwest of the country, hence the practical significance of more accurate assessment of the earthquake hazard for the area. The worldwide experience of seismicity, in particular, the recent Tohoku mega-earthquake (March 11, 2011, M _w = 9.0, Japan) shows that instrumental and historical data alone are insufficient to reliably estimate earthquake hazard. This is all the more relevant in relation to Vietnam where the period of instrumental observation is short and historical evidence is nearly lacking. In this connection we made an attempt to construct maps of earthquake hazard based on known seismicity data using the available geological and geophysical data and the method of G.I. Reisner and his associates for classification of areas by seismic potential. Since the question of what geological and geophysical parameters are to be used and with what weights remains unresolved, we developed a program package to estimate Mmax based on different options in the use of geological and geophysical data. In this paper we discuss the first results and the promise held by this program package.     

Declustering of Seismicity Flow: Statistical Analysis

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - The known methods for identifying the clusters of seismic events that are mainly formed by the aftershocks frequently include debatable initial assumptions...     

Origin and Ion Charge State Evolution of Solar Wind Transients during 4 – 7 August 2011

We present a study of the complex event consisting of several solar wind transients detected by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) on 4?–?7 August 2011, which caused a geomagnetic storm with \(\mathit{Dst}=-110~\mbox{nT}\). The supposed coronal sources, three flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), occurred on 2?–?4 August 2011 in active region (AR) 11261. To investigate the solar origin and formation of these transients, we study the kinematic and thermodynamic properties of the expanding coronal structures using the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA) EUV images and differential emission measure (DEM) diagnostics. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetic field maps were used as the input data for the 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model to describe the flux rope ejection (Pagano, Mackay, and Poedts, 2013b). We characterize the early phase of the flux rope ejection in the corona, where the usual three-component CME structure formed. The flux rope was ejected with a speed of about \(200~\mbox{km}\,\mbox{s}^{-1}\) to the height of \(0.25~\mbox{R}_{\odot}\). The kinematics of the modeled CME front agrees well with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) EUV measurements. Using the results of the plasma diagnostics and MHD modeling, we calculate the ion charge ratios of carbon and oxygen as well as the mean charge state of iron ions of the 2 August 2011 CME, taking into account the processes of heating, cooling, expansion, ionization, and recombination of the moving plasma in the corona up to the frozen-in region. We estimate a probable heating rate of the CME plasma in the low corona by matching the calculated ion composition parameters of the CME with those measured in situ for the solar wind transients. We also consider the similarities and discrepancies between the results of the MHD simulation and the observations.     

Fuzzy logic algorithms in the analysis of electrotelluric data with reference to monitoring of volcanic activity

The expert processing of monitoring data of large networks on hazardous natural phenomena becomes increasingly more complicated due to an increase in the initial data flow. An approach alternative to the visual recognition of signals is proposed. A number of recognition algorithms and results of their application to the analysis of geoelectric potential monitoring data are discussed. Data of monitoring La Fournaise Volcano (Réunion Island) obtained in the vicinity of the intense volcanic eruption of 1988 are used. The obtained results show that these algorithms are capable of recognizing anomalous segments of records and discriminating between several types of anomalies presumably associated with the effects of various physical factors (heavy atmospheric precipitation, hydrothermal processes, and so on). The algorithms proposed in this work can be used both for the automation of expert work in operating monitoring systems and in investigations aimed at the identification of typical morphologic sequences in time series of data of various origins.     

On the seismotectonic setting in the ocean side of deep trenches

On the basis of catalogs spanning more than 100 years, the focal mechanisms and seismicity in the continental and oceanic sides of deep trenches are analyzed.     

Irregularities in the Intensity of the Flow of Main Events: An Example of the Shallow Seismicity in the Kamchatka Region

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Abstract—The significant deviation of the regime of the main earthquakes from the stationary Poisson process is shown for the regional catalog of...