Changes in Global Monsoon Circulations Since 1950

We examined changes in several independent intensity indices of four majortropical monsoonal circulations for the period 1950–1998. Theseintensity indices included observed land surface precipitation andobserved ocean surface pressure in the monsoon regions aswell as upper-level divergence calculated at severalstandard levels from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis. These values wereaveraged seasonally over appropriate regions of southeastern Asian, western Africa, eastern Africa and the Australia/Maritime continent and adjacent ocean areas. Asa consistency check we also examined two secondary indices: mean sea level pressure trends and low level convergence both from theNCEP reanalysis.We find that in each of the four regions examined, a consistentpicture emerges indicating significantly diminished monsoonalcirculations over the period of record, evidence of diminished spatialmaxima in the global hydrological cycle since 1950. Trends since 1979,the period of strongest reported surface warming, do not indicate any change inmonsoon circulations. When strong ENSO years are removed from each of the time series the trends still show a general, significant reduction of monsoon intensity indicating that ENSO variability is not the direct cause for the observed weakening.Most previously reported model simulations of theeffects of rising CO₂ show an increase in monsoonal activity withrising global surface temperature. We find no support in these datafor an increasing hydrological cycle or increasing extremes as hypothesized bygreenhouse warming scenarios.     

The climatic impacts of land surface change and carbon management, and the implications for climate-change mitigation policy

Strategies to mitigate anthropogenic climate change recognize that carbon sequestration in the terrestrial biosphere can reduce the build-up of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere. However, climate mitigation policies do not generally incorporate the effects of these changes in the land surface on the surface albedo, the fluxes of sensible and latent heat to the atmosphere, and the distribution of energy within the climate system. Changes in these components of the surface energy budget can affect the local, regional, and global climate. Given the goal of mitigating climate change, it is important to consider all of the effects of changes in terrestrial vegetation and to work toward a better understanding of the full climate system. Acknowledging the importance of land surface change as a component of climate change makes it more challenging to create a system of credits and debits wherein emission or sequestration of carbon in the biosphere is equated with emission of carbon from fossil fuels. Recognition of the complexity of human-caused changes in climate does not, however, weaken the importance of actions that would seek to minimize our disturbance of the Earth’s environmental system and that would reduce societal and ecological vulnerability to environmental change and variability.     

On the impact of cloudiness on the characteristics of nocturnal downslope flows

The effects of cloud cover amount and the height of cloud base on nighttime thermally induced downslope flow were investigated using analytical and numerical model approaches. The conclusions obtained with the analytical and the numerical model evaluations agreed. It was concluded that, (i) as cloud cover increases and/or the height of cloud base decreases, the depth and the intensity of nighttime thermally-induced downslope flows may decrease by a factor reaching one sixth and one tenth, respectively, in the case of overcast low cloud; (ii) when skies suddenly cloud over around midnight, the development of the downslope flow is altered in different ways: a reduction in intensity; or a cessation of further development, depending on the fraction of cloud coverage, and (iii) with a sudden clearing of overcast low cloud around midnight, the depth and the intensity of the downslope flow increases significantly.On leave from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academia Sinica, Beijing, China.On leave from CSIRO, Division of Atmospheric Research, Private Bag No. 1, Mordialloc, Victoria 3195, Australia.     

Analytic solutions to long's model: A comparison of nonhydrostatic and hydrostatic cases

Summary In this paper, analytic solutions of the nonhydrostatic and hydrostatic forms of Long's model were obtained under two different sets of vertical boundary conditions: The first uses a sumusoidal obstacle at the lower boundary and a rigid-lid top for the upper boundary. The second set applies an isolated obstacle of the Witch of Agnesi type at the lower boundary, while still using a rigid lid at the top. Following the solution evaluations, comparisons between the nonhydrostatic and hydrostatic solutions were processed in order to describe several influences introduced by using the hydrostatic assumption in this model.Through comparisons we have found that, in the case of a sinusoidal lower boundary condition, the hydrostatic solution is obtained as the zero mode of the nonhydrostatic solution. The influence of the hydrostatic assumption on the model solution is trivial in this case. When an isolated lower boundary condition is applied, however, the solutions illustrate dramatic differences, showing the significance of the effect of hydrostatic assumption on this model's solutions. These effects vary considerably with the model parameters as well. The comparison results also reveal that the realization of the hydrostatic assumption in this model's solutions is accomplished through the vertical boundary conditions used in the model evaluations.With 5 Figures     

On the sensitivity of mesoscale models to surface-layer parameterization constants

The Colorado State University standard mesoscale model is used to evaluate the sensitivity of one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) fields to differences in surface-layer parameterization constants. Such differences reflect the range in the published values of the von Karman constant, Monin-Obukhov stability functions and the temperature roughness length at the surface. The sensitivity of 1D boundary-layer structure, and 2D sea-breeze intensity, is generally less than that found in published comparisons related to turbulence closure schemes generally.     

A terrain-following coordinate system—Derivation of diagnostic relationships

Summary Generalized hydrostatic and geostrophic equations can be derived from the equations in the terrain-following framework. The generalized hydrostatic equation permits some non-hydrostatic motions (as obtained from a Cartesian framework) to remain when a non-zero slope exists. Correspondingly, the generalized geostrophic wind permits a horizontal divergent component (in addition to divergence caused by the change of Coriolis parameter with latitude) to occur when the slope angle is not zero.With 1 Figure     

Numerical study of wind energy characteristics over heterogeneous terrain — Central Israel case study

A numerical mesoscale meteorological model has been applied over the heterogeneous terrain of central Israel in order to study wind energy characteristics of three typical synoptic situations. The supportive nature of this method for observationally oriented wind energy studies has been emphasized. Mesoscale forcing effects on the availability of wind energy and on the exponent, p, in the vertical wind power law are evaluated.     

Potential impacts of aerosol–land–atmosphere interactions on the Indian monsoonal rainfall characteristics

Aerosols can affect the cloud-radiation feedback and the precipitation over the Indian monsoon region. In this paper, we propose that another pathway by which aerosols can modulate the multi-scale aspect of Indian monsoons is by altering the land–atmosphere interactions. The nonlinear feedbacks due to aerosol/diffuse radiation on coupled interactions over the Indian monsoon region are studied by: (1) reviewing recent field measurements and modeling studies, (2) analyzing the MODIS and AERONET aerosol optical depth datasets, and (3) diagnosing the results from sensitivity experiments using a mesoscale modeling system. The results of this study suggest that the large magnitude of aerosol loading and its impact on land–atmosphere interactions can significantly influence the mesoscale monsoonal characteristics in the Indo-Ganges Basin.