A procedure for landslide susceptibility zonation by the conditional analysis method

Numerous methods have been proposed for landslide probability zonation of the landscape by means of a Geographic Information System (GIS). Among the multivariate methods, i.e. those methods which simultaneously take into account all the factors contributing to instability, the Conditional Analysis method applied to a subdivision of the territory into Unique Condition Units is particularly straightforward from a conceptual point of view and particularly suited to the use of a GIS. In fact, working on the principle that future landslides are more likely to occur under those conditions which led to past instability, landslide susceptibility is defined by computing the landslide density in correspondence with different combinations of instability factors. The conceptual simplicity of this method, however, does not necessarily imply that it is simple to implement, especially as it requires rather complex operations and a high number of GIS commands. Moreover, there is the possibility that, in order to achieve satisfactory results, the procedure has to be repeated a few times changing the factors or modifying the class subdivision. To solve this problem, we created a shell program which, by combining the shell commands, the GIS Geographical Research Analysis Support System (GRASS) commands and the gawk language commands, carries out the whole procedure automatically. This makes the construction of a Landslide Susceptibility Map easy and fast for large areas too, and even when a high spatial resolution is adopted, as shown by application of the procedure to the Parma River basin, in the Italian Northern Apennines.     

A basal slip model for Lagrangian finite element simulations of 3D landslides

A Lagrangian numerical approach for the simulation of rapid landslide runouts is presented and discussed. The simulation approach is based on the so‐called Particle Finite Element Method. The moving soil mass is assumed to obey a rigid‐viscoplastic, non‐dilatant Drucker–Prager constitutive law, which is cast in the form of a regularized, pressure‐sensitive Bingham model. Unlike in classical formulations of computational fluid mechanics, where no‐slip boundary conditions are assumed, basal slip boundary conditions are introduced to account for the specific nature of the landslide‐basal surface interface. The basal slip conditions are formulated in the form of modified Navier boundary conditions, with a pressure‐sensitive threshold. A special mixed Eulerian–Lagrangian formulation is used for the elements on the basal interface to accommodate the new slip conditions into the Particle Finite Element Method framework. To avoid inconsistencies in the presence of complex shapes of the basal surface, the no‐flux condition through the basal surface is relaxed using a penalty approach. The proposed model is validated by simulating both laboratory tests and a real large‐scale problem, and the critical role of the basal slip is elucidated. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mass and spin co-evolution during the alignment of a black hole in a warped accretion disc

In this paper, we explore the gravitomagnetic interaction of a black hole (BH) with a misaligned accretion disc to study BH spin precession and alignment jointly with BH mass M _BH and spin parameter a evolution, under the assumption that the disc is continually fed, in its outer region, by matter with angular momentum fixed on a given direction     . We develop an iterative scheme based on the adiabatic approximation to study the BH–disc co-evolution: in this approach, the accretion disc transits through a sequence of quasi-steady warped states (Bardeen–Petterson effect) and interacts with the BH until the spin   J _BH  aligns with     . For a BH aligning with a corotating disc, the fractional increase in mass is typically less than a few per cent, while the spin modulus can increase up to a few tens of per cent. The alignment time-scale     is of  ∼10⁵–10⁶ yr  for a maximally rotating BH accreting at the Eddington rate. BH–disc alignment from an initially counter-rotating disc tends to be more efficient compared to the specular corotating case due to the asymmetry seeded in the Kerr metric: counter-rotating matter carries a larger and opposite angular momentum when crossing the innermost stable orbit, so that the spin modulus decreases faster and so the relative inclination angle.     

Thermal modeling of a Swiss urban aquifer and implications for geothermal heat pump systems

The progressive electrification of the building conditioning sector in recent years has greatly contributed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by using renewable energy sources, particularly shallow geothermal energy. This energy can be exploited through open and closed shallow geothermal systems (SGS), and their performances greatly depend on the ground/groundwater temperature, which can be affected by both natural and anthropogenic phenomena. The present study proposes an approach to characterize aquifers affected by high SGS exploitation (not simulated in this work). Characterization of the potential hydro/thermogeological natural state is necessary to understand the regional flow and heat transport, and to identify local thermal anomalies. Passive microseismic and groundwater monitoring were used to assess the shape and thermal status of the aquifer; numerical modeling in both steady-state and transient conditions allowed understanding of the flow and heat transport patterns. Two significant thermal anomalies were detected in a fluvio-glacial aquifer in southern Switzerland, one created by river water exfiltration and one of anthropogenic nature. A favorable time lag of 110 days between river and groundwater temperature and an urban hot plume produced by underground structures were observed. These thermal anomalies greatly affect the local thermal status of the aquifer and consequently the design and efficiency of current and future SGS. Results show that the correct characterization of the natural thermo-hydrogeological status of an aquifer is a fundamental basis for determining the impact of boundary conditions and to provide initial conditions required to perform reliable local thermal sustainability assessments, especially where high SGS exploitation occurs.