Modeling of Persistence and Seasonality in Sectoral Energy Consumption in the USA Using Fractionally Integrated Processes: Implications for Economic Policy

This study delves into the examination of long memory behavior in the monthly sectoral energy consumption of the USA through the use of fractional integration [I(d)] framework. Also, seasonality effects are accounted for as seasonal patterns are prominent features of series of this nature. For robustness sake, the analysis is carried out on both primary and total energy consumption of each sector. The results show that the sectoral energy consumption of both energy consumption forms (primary and total) exhibit long memory behavior, although the degree of persistence varies from one sector to another. Putting seasonality into consideration, the energy consumption series across all the sectors are not only persistent, but indicate very strong seasonal patterns and highly significant autoregressive components. These findings have important implications for the formulation and implementation of effective energy and environmental policies.

     

Farmers’ choice of wetland agriculture: checking wetland loss and degradation in Lagos State, Nigeria

The issue of food security has received increasing emphasis in developing countries, particularly in the cities. The emphasis on food security has engendered agricultural expansion and encroachment on the coastal and inland wetlands in these nations. To facilitate and sustain the security of food in the developing countries local and international policies have been designed and employed; they have specifically targeted abounding food production towards ensuring human survival in the cities. However, the various ecological and socio-economic benefits derivable from the preservation of wetlands and inland valleys in these urban environments may be lost, with the transformation in the land use and cover. This study is therefore concerned with how wetland degradation and loss can be checked and mitigated, focusing on the developing countries and their cities. In this respect, the farmer’s awareness of the impacts of wetland cultivation and the role of accessibility, socio-economic and biophysical factors influencing the choice of wetland farming are examined. To this end, structured questionnaire on choice of wetland agriculture in the urban and periurban wetland areas of Lagos city was administered to the farmers. Simple frequency analysis is used to explain and interpret the data generated. The data reveals a generally low level of farmers’ awareness of the implication of wetland cultivation; it shows different categories of factors influencing the choice of wetland farming. Provision of irrigation infrastructure and improvement in living standard of the people through poverty eradication can discourage disadvantageous encroachment on wetlands in cities.     

Prospect Analysis and Hydrocarbon Reservoir Volume Estimation in an Exploration Field,Shallow Offshore Depobelt,Western Niger Delta,Nigeria

Natural Resources Research - The daunting challenge in the exploration and production of oil and gas in the face of continual rise in the world’s energy consumption has long been how to...     

Modelling of malaria incidence in Akure,Nigeria: negative binomial approach

The connections between malaria incidence and climate variability have been studied in recent time using some mathematical and statistical models. Many of the statistical models in literature focused on time series approach based on Box–Jenkins methodology. However, fitting time series model based on the Box–Jenkins methodology may be challenging. Most malaria incidence data are count and are over-dispersed. In this study, negative binomial models were formulated for fitting malaria incidence in Akure—one of the epidemic cities in Nigeria. In particular, negative binomial models were formulated for each of the number of outpatient individuals, number of inpatient individuals and mortality count as a function of some climate variables. It was found that an increase in minimum temperature and relative humidity at lag 1 significantly increased the chance of malaria transmission and thereby leads to an increase in the number of inpatient and outpatient individuals, as well as the total number of malaria cases. The minimum temperature, rainfall amount and relative humidity of the study area have a significant impact on the increase of number of inpatient and outpatient individuals while mortality count depends on the total number of reported malaria cases. The findings from this study is to offer in-depth understanding on climate-malaria incidence linkages in Akure, Nigeria.