Correlation of foreshocks and aftershocks and asperities

A close correlation in spatial distribution of local seismic activity and energy release patterns before and after the 1979 Petatlan, Mexico earthquake suggests heterogeneity within the fault plane of this major low-angle thrust event associated with subduction along the Middle America Trench. A simple two-asperity model is proposed to account for the complexity. Foreshocks and aftershocks of the neighboring 1981 Playa Azul earthquake showed a similar pattern. As both events occurred at the junction of the Orozco Fracture Zone and the Middle America Trench, we speculate that the observed complex fault plane is caused by subduction of the rugged ocean floor of the Orozco Fracture Zone. Short-term precursory seismicity prior to the Petatlan earthquake can be explained by using the asperity model and migration of a slip front from the south-east to the north-west across the main shock source region.     

The Risk Atlas of Mexico City,Mexico: a tool for decision-making and disaster prevention

Natural Hazards - We present a Risk Atlas of Mexico City based on a Geographical Information System (RA-GIS). We identified the prevalent social risk to the more relevant hazards in Mexico City...     

Generation of isoseismal maps for Mexico using velocity and acceleration data

Acceleration and velocity data of large earthquakes recorded by the Mexican National Broadband Seismological Network were used to generate isoseismal maps for Mexico. The seismic data consist of 99 events recorded at 27 seismic stations located in the southern and northern regions of Mexico from 2004 to 2009. The magnitude (Mw) of these events ranged from 4.1 to 7.1. Peak ground velocity values (PGV) and peak ground accelerations (PGA) were estimated, and velocity-derived peak ground accelerations (PGAv) were calculated. No important differences between PGAv and PGA values were found; thus, both parameters were used in the isoseismal determination. The generated synthetic isoseismal maps were compared with those from an existing catalog for large earthquakes in Mexico. Using empiric relations between PGA and MMI (modified Mercalli intensity) and PGV and MMI, the obtained simulated intensity maps showed similar behavior to those reported in the catalog. The results indicate that the PGAv values can be used to determine intensities when acceleration records (PGA) are unavailable.     

Seismic pattern recognition techniques to predict large eruptions at the Popocatépetl,Mexico, volcano

Using pattern recognition techniques, we formulate a simple prediction rule for a retrospective prediction of the three last largest eruptions of the Popocatépetl, Mexico, volcano that occurred on 23 April–30 June 1997 (Eruption 1; VEI ~ 2–3); 11 December 2000–23 January 2001 (Eruption 2; VEI ~ 3–4) and 7 June–4 September 2002 (Eruption 3; explosive dome extrusion and destruction phase). Times of Increased Probability (TIP) were estimated from the seismicity recorded by the local seismic network from 1 January 1995 to 31 December 2005. A TIP is issued when a cluster of seismic events occurs under our algorithm considerations in a temporal window several days (or weeks) prior to large volcanic activity providing sufficient time to organize an effective alert strategy. The best predictions of the three analyzed eruptions were obtained when averaging seismicity rate over a 5-day window with a threshold value of 12 events and declaring an alarm for 45 days. A TIP was issued about six weeks before Eruption 1. TIPs were detected about one and four weeks before Eruptions 2 and 3, respectively. According to our objectives, in all cases, the observed TIPs would have allowed the development of an effective civil protection strategy. Although, under our model considerations the three eruptive events were successfully predicted, one false alarm was also issued by our algorithm. An analysis of the epicentral and depth distribution of the local seismicity used by our prediction rule reveals that successful TIPs were issued from microearthquakes that took place below and towards SE of the crater. On the contrary, the seismicity that issued the observed false alarm was concentrated below the summit of the volcano. We conclude that recording of precursory seismicity below and SE of the crater together with detection of TIPs as described here, could become an important tool to predict future large eruptions at Popocatépetl. Although our model worked well for events that occurred in the past, it is necessary to verify the real capability of the model for future eruptive events.     

Exposure of main critical facilities to natural and man-made hazards in Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands

The level of exposure to the impact of natural and man-made hazards of the main critical facilities at Grand Cayman (GC), Cayman Islands, was determined using the methodology developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Services Center. Previous studies identified hurricanes as the most important natural hazard for GC. However, other hazards include earthquakes, tsunamis and explosions or leaks of fuel storage tanks. Our results indicate that: (1) About 82% of the emergency response infrastructure, 95% of the government facilities, and 85% of the utilities have a level of exposure from low to moderate; (2) only 12% of all identified critical facilities at GC are highly exposed; (3) large explosions or leaks of the Airport Texaco Fuel Depot, the local fuel pipeline, and the Home Gas Terminal could impact nearby critical infrastructure. The facilities identified with a high level of exposure are as follows: the Bodden Town Clinic and Police Station, the West Bay Fire Station, the Georgetown Dock and Port, and the Esso and Texaco Fuel terminals. Most portions of the coastal roads are moderately exposed to natural and man-made hazards. The most exposed sections are four short segments of the road system located along the North Sound, Little Sound and Eastern West Bay area. In some cases, the high exposure of critical facilities stems from their location on the coastline. In other cases, however, adequate policies to either protect or to relocate these facilities would help to reduce their level of exposure to both natural and man-made hazards.