Multiforced statistical assessments of greenhouse-gas-induced surface air temperature change 1890–1985

Based on univariate correlation and coherence analyses and considering the physical basis of the relationships, a simple multiforced (multiple) statistical concept is used which correlates observational climatic time series simultaneously with volcanic, solar, ENSO, and the anthropogenic greenhouse gases forcing. This is appropriate to remove some natural climate noise in the observed data and to evaluate the components (signals) possibly due to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (CO₂, or equivalent CO₂ implying additional gases) during industrial time. In this paper, we apply this technique to 100 global box data time series 1890–1985, of the surface air temperature, using observed data from Hansen and Lebedeff. The results are presented in terms of latitudinal-seasonal and regional trends, where the observed trend patterns are compared with the hypothetical signals (statistical assessments) possibly due to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. These latter signals can be amplified to enable a comparison with corresponding results from general circulation model (GCM) CO₂ doubling experiments. These observed-statistical assessments lead to results which are, at least qualitatively and in respect to the zonal mean temperatures, very similar to some GCM experiments indicating the maximum CO₂ doubling signals (statistical assessment > 12 K) in the arctic winter. However, these signals are moderate in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere (global average 2.8–4.4 K). As far as the industrial signals are concerned (observed period) these signals are somewhat larger (maximum 7 K, global average 0.5–0.9 K) than the observed trends (maximum 5 K, global average 0.5 K). Phase shifts of cause and effect may amplify these signals but are very uncertain.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil     

华北地台东部石炭系—二叠系优质煤储层形成分布控制因素

优质煤储层在此指厚度大、分布广、储集物性好的煤层。沉积相对优质煤储层的形成和分布有重要控制作用。通过浅海和泻湖淤积填平发育起来的潮坪环境和三角洲环境是最有利的优质煤储层形成环境,煤储层厚度大、分布广。沉积环境对煤储层中的灰分含量和镜质组含量有重要影响,而灰分含量和镜质组含量又直接影响煤储层的储集物性。灰分充填了煤储层中的孔隙,其含量越高,储集物性越差;镜质组有利于割理的形成,其含量越高,储集物性越好。由于在灰分含量、煤岩显微组分等方面的差异,潮坪环境沉积的煤储层的储集物性优于三角洲的煤储层,下三角洲平原沉积的煤储层优于上三角洲平原沉积的煤储层。海平面变化对优质煤储层的形成和分布也有重要控制作用。高位体系煤储层富集,单层厚度大,横向分布相当稳定,尤其是高位体系域晚期,是形成优质煤储层最有利的层位。而水进体系域煤储层稀少,单层厚度小,横向分布不稳定,不利于优质煤储层形成。     

Groundwater flow and contaminant transport modelling at an air weapons range

Numerical modelling was done at the Cold Lake Air Weapons Range, Canada, to test whether the dissolved RDX and nitrate detected in groundwater come from the same sources, and to predict whether contamination poses a threat to the surface water receptors near the site. Military live fire training activities may indeed pose a risk of contamination to groundwater resources, however field investigations on military bases are quite recent, and little information is available on the long-term behaviour of munition residues related contaminants. Very limited information was available about the contaminant source zones, which were assigned based on our knowledge of current training activities. The RDX plume was well represented with the model, but the heterogeneous distribution of nitrate concentrations was more difficult to reproduce. It was nonetheless determined that both contaminants originate from the same areas. According to the model, both contaminants should reach the nearby river, but concentrations in the river should remain very low if the source zone concentration does not change. Finally, the model allowed the recommendation of a new location for the main bombing target, which would offer added protection to the river and the lake into which it flows.     

Die Windverhältnisse im Davoser Hochtal

Zusammenfassung Die Davoser Windverh?ltnisse werden in ihrem tages- und jahreszeitlichen Ablauf sowie in ihrer Abh?ngigkeit von verschiedenen typischen Wetterlagen untersucht. Neben den ungest?rten Sch?nwetterlagen mit ihrem ausgepr?gten Talwind, der wie der Malojawind talabw?rts weht, werden die F?hnstr?mung aus Südwest und die Nordoststr?mung bei Staulagen und Bise kurz besprochen. Gegenüber dem benachbarten Dischmatal zeigt sich ein sp?terer Beginn des Talwindes bei Sch?nwetterlagen, w?hrend im Vergleich zu anderen T?lern, z. B. zum Wallis, ein früheres und schw?cheres nachmitt?gliches Windmaximum auftritt.

---

Summary The wind at Davos is analysed in his diurnal and annual variation and in the depence on the different weather types. The fair and undisturbed weather shows a typical valley breeze during the day, but not in the normal direction towards the higher part of the valley, but downstream, similar to the Malojawind in the Engadine. The opposite wind direction, from southwest, characterises the foehn-situation. Northeasterly winds develop in the case of higher pressure north of the Alps (e. g. in situations of barrage). The valley-breeze begins later than in the adjacent Dischma Valley, but it is weaker and reaches the highest intensity earlier than in other valleys, as e. g. in the Valais.

---

Résumé Les vents de Davos sont analysés selon leurs variations diurnes et annuelles et selon des types de temps caractéristiques. La situation de beau temps montre un vent de vallée assez accentué, soufflant du haut en bas, donc dans une direction anormale, mais analogue au vent de la Maloja en Engadine. En cas de ?foehn? le vent souffle du sud-ouest tandis qu'un vent du nord-est se manifeste par situations de surpression au nord des Alpes. Le vent de vallée se met à souffler plus tard à Davos que dans la vallée de Dischma toute proche. Il y atteint par contre sa vitesse maximale plus t?t que les vents correspondants d'autres vallées p. ex. du Valais. Le maximum y est cependant moins élevé.

---

---

Mit 6 Textabbildungen

---

Herrn Dr.W. M?rikofer zu seinem 70. Geburtstag gewidmet.     

Size distribution of colloidal trace metals and organic carbon during a coastal bloom in the Baltic Sea

The physico-chemical speciation of organic carbon and selected metals was measured during a coastal bloom in Ekhagen Bay, Baltic Sea, using ultrafiltration.One important objective with the study was to see if any depletion of trace metals could be measured in the directly bioavailable fraction (<1000 Da, the soluble low molecular weight fraction, LMW) during a plankton bloom. Filters with five different cut-offs were used (1 kD (1000 Da), 5 kD, 10 kD, 100 kD and 0.22 μm) in order to delineate the size distribution of colloidal organic carbon (COC) and trace metals.During the bloom in May, LMW Al, Co, Cu, Mn and Ni concentrations decreased although the colloidal and particulate concentrations were relatively high. Data show that desorption of colloidal and particulate bound trace metals to the LMW fraction was slower than the process depleting the LMW fraction.Estimates of the maximum active uptake of Cu, Ni and Mn by the phytoplankton, and the loss of non-bioactive Al from the LMW fraction, indicate that processes other than active uptake by phytoplankton must contribute to the observed depletion of trace metals in the LMW fraction. Hence, in order to estimate the bioavailable pool of trace metals for plankton during bloom conditions, these other processes must be understood and quantified.Transparent Exopolymeric Particles (TEP, reflecting sugar-rich phytoplankton exudates) increased around eight times during the plankton bloom. We hypothesize that the formation of TEP is a process that might be important for the transfer of trace metals from the LMW to the particulate fraction during the phytoplankton bloom, but the significance of TEP for this depletion in Baltic Sea surface water remains to be shown.     

Multi-proxy evidence of long-term changes in ecosystem structure in a Danish marine estuary, linked to increased nutrient loading

This paper presents a study of changes in eutrophication over the past 100 years in a fertile estuary. The Danish estuary Mariager Fjord is a long, narrow sill-fjord with a permanently anoxic basin. In 1997 anoxia spread from the basin to the entire inner estuary, killing almost all eukaryotes and prompting debate on the causes. This paper reports a multi-proxy survey of ²¹⁰Pb-dated sediment cores from the anoxic basin. Analyses of diatoms, dinoflagellates, pigments and geochemical proxies were used to determine changes in ecosystem structure over the past 100 years. The aim was to establish ‘base-line conditions’, for management purposes, of the biological structure prior to 1900, and to examine possible causes of changes observed. Geochemical proxies total nitrogen (TN), total carbon (TC) and biogenic silica (BSi) were consistently high throughout the sediment record. Increased concentrations of pigments and natural isotopes (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N) suggested increasing production and nutrient loading. The main changes in the biological proxies occurred between 1915 and the 1940s, and indicated that the estuary has been somewhat eutrophic since 1900, but that the eutrophication process increased over the past 100 years. A reconstruction of TN concentration by a diatom-based transfer function supports this interpretation, with inferred TN ca. 1900 around 60 μmol l⁻¹, and an increase in TN concentration over the past century to ca. 130 μmol l⁻¹ by 1995. Inferred TN decreased to ca. 100 μmol l⁻¹ by 2001, similar to present day monitoring data.     

Ozone production due to emissions from vegetation burning

Ozone has been observed in elevated concentrations by satellites over areas previously believed to be background. There is meteorological evidence, that these ozone plumes found over the Atlantic Ocean originate from vegetation fires on the African continent.In a previous study (DECAFE-88), we have investigated ozone and assumed precursor compounds over African tropical forest regions. Our measurements revealed large photosmog layers at altitudes from 1.5 to 4 km. Both chemical and meteorological evidence point to savanna fires up to several thousand km upwind as sources.Here we describe ozone mixing ratios observed over western Africa and compare ozone production ratios from different field measurement campaigns related to vegetation burning. We find that air masses containing photosmog ingredients require several days to develop their oxidation potential, similar to what is known from air polluted by emissions from fossil fuel burning. Finally, we estimate the global ozone production due to vegetation fires and conclude that this source is comparable in strength to the stratospheric input.     

Analysis of COMPTEL gamma-ray burst locations and spectra

In its first three years of operation, the COMPTEL instrument on theCompton Gamma-Ray Observatory has measured the locations (mean accuracy 1°) and spectra (0.75-30 MeV) of 18 gamma-ray bursts and continues to observe new events at a rate of 1/month. With good angular resolution and sensitivity at MeV energies, the growing COMPTEL burst catalog is an important new piece of evidence in the on-going GRB mystery. The COMPTEL burst locations are consistent with an isotropic distribution of sources, yet the spatial coincidence of two of the bursts indicates the possibility of repetition. The COMPTEL burst spectra are in most cases consistent with a single power law model with spectral index in the range 2–3. However, two bursts show evidence of a spectral break in the MeV range. Measurement of rapid variability at MeV energies in the stronger bursts provides evidence that either the sources are nearby (within the Galaxy) or the gamma-ray emission is relativistically beamed. We present an overview of analysis results obtained from the COMPTEL burst catalog concentrating on the search for burst repetition and the implications of highly variable MeV emission.     

Coalescing neutron stars as gamma ray bursters?

We investigate the dynamics and evolution of coalescing neutron stars. The three-dimensional Newtonian equations of hydrodynamics are integrated by the Piecewise Parabolic Method on an equidistant Cartesian grid. The code is purely Newtonian, but does include the emission of gravitational waves and their back-reaction. The properties of neutron star matter are described by the equation of state of Lattimer and Swesty (1991). Energy loss by all types of neutrinos and changes of the electron fraction due to the emission of electron neutrinos and antineutrinos are taken into account by an elaborate neutrino leakage scheme. We simulate the coalescence of two identical, cool neutron stars with a baryonic mass of 1.6M and a radius of 15 km and with an initial center-to-center distance of 42 km. The initial distributions of density and electron concentration are given from a model of a cold neutron star in hydrostatic equilibrium. We investigate three cases which differ by the initial velocity distribution in the neutron stars. The orbit decays due to gravitational-wave emission and after one revolution the stars are so close that dynamical instability sets in. Within 1 ms the neutron stars merge into a rapidly spinning (P 1 ms), high-density body ( 10¹⁴ g/cm³) with a surrounding thick disk of material with densities 10¹⁰ – 10¹² g/cm³ and orbital velocities of 0.3-0.5 c. The peak emission of gravitational waves has a maximum luminosity of a few times 10⁵⁵ erg/s and is reached for about 1 ms. The amplitudes of the gravitational waves are close to 3 10^–23 at a distance of 1 Gpc and the typical frequency is near the dynamical value of the orbital motion of the merging neutron stars of 2 KHz. In a post-processing step, the rate of neutrino-antineutrino annihilation is calculated from the neutrino luminosities generated during the hydrodynamical simulations. We find the integral annihilation rate to be a few 10⁵⁰ erg/s during the phase of strongest neutrino emission, which is too small to generate the observed bursts considering the fact that the merged object of about 3M will most likely collapse to a black hole within milliseconds.     

Une approche innovante pour modéliser la biodégradation des composés organochlorés volatils en aquifères poreux

The goal of this study was to develop an innovative chloroethene biodegradation module based on biological, thermodynamical and mechanistic concepts. The biodegradation scheme was based on the postulate that in each part of an aquifer only one degradation mechanism is dominant: the one involving the most energetic electron acceptor. Thus, the selection of the active degradation mechanism was a function of the concentration of different electron acceptors. Modified Monod-type kinetics was used in order to take into account the possible influence of some compounds on the biodegradation of a given organic compound. The numerical model developed was applied to a simple test case, whose results are presented here. To cite this article: F. Nex et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).