On least squares estimation of generalized covariance functions

Least squares estimation (LSE) is theoretically related to quadratic unbiased estimation of variance components. It is argued that these methods of estimation of variance components essentially generalize LSE though they are not formally equivalent.     

Arsenic mobility in the ambient sulfidic environment: Sorption of arsenic(V) and arsenic(III) onto disordered mackinawite

Arsenate, As(V), sorption onto synthetic iron(II) monosulfide, disordered mackinawite (FeS), is fast. As(V) sorption decreases above the point of zero surface charge of FeS and follows the pH-dependent concentration of positively charged surface species. No redox reaction is observed between the As(V) ions and the mineral surface over the time span of the experiments. This observation shows that As(V) dominantly forms an outer-sphere complex at the surface of mackinawite. Arsenite, As(III), sorption is not strongly pH-dependent and can be expressed by a Freundlich isotherm. Sorption is fast, although slower than that of As(V). As(III) also forms an outer-sphere complex at the surface of mackinawite. In agreement with previous spectroscopic studies, complexation at low As(V) and As(III) concentration occurs preferentially at the mono-coordinated sulfide edge sites. The K_d (L g⁻¹) values obtained from linear fits to the isotherm data are ∼9 for As(V) and ∼2 for As(III). Stronger sorption of As(V) than As(III), and thus a higher As(III) mobility, may be reflected in natural anoxic sulfidic waters when disordered mackinawite controls arsenic mobility.     

Comparative assessment of Japan's long-term carbon budget under different effort-sharing principles

This article assesses Japan's carbon budgets up to 2100 in the global efforts to achieve the 2?°C target under different effort-sharing approaches based on long-term GHG mitigation scenarios published in 13 studies. The article also presents exemplary emission trajectories for Japan to stay within the calculated budget.

The literature data allow for an in-depth analysis of four effort-sharing categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, the remaining carbon budgets for 2014–2100 were negative for the effort-sharing category that emphasizes historical responsibility and capability. For the other three, including the reference ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, which showed the highest budget range among all categories, the calculated remaining budgets (20th and 80th percentile ranges) would run out in 21–29 years if the current emission levels were to continue. A 550?ppm CO₂e stabilization level increases the budgets by 6–17 years-equivalent of the current emissions, depending on the effort-sharing category. Exemplary emissions trajectories staying within the calculated budgets were also analysed for ‘Equality’, ‘Staged’ and ‘Cost-effectiveness’ categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, Japan's GHG emissions would need to phase out sometime between 2045 and 2080, and the emission reductions in 2030 would be at least 16–29% below 1990 levels even for the most lenient ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, and 29–36% for the ‘Equality’ category. The start year for accelerated emissions reductions and the emissions convergence level in the long term have major impact on the emissions reduction rates that need to be achieved, particularly in the case of smaller budgets.

Policy relevance

In previous climate mitigation target formulation processes for 2020 and 2030 in Japan, neither equity principles nor long-term management of cumulative GHG emissions was at the centre of discussion. This article quantitatively assesses how much more GHGs Japan can emit by 2100 to achieve the 2?°C target in light of different effort-sharing approaches, and how Japan's GHG emissions can be managed up to 2100. The long-term implications of recent energy policy developments following the Fukushima nuclear disaster for the calculated carbon budgets are also discussed.     

Grand canyon—a quantitative approach to the erosion and weathering of a stratified bedrock

A new method is proposed for solving a differential equation arising from weathering-limited development of a valley. Allowance is made for horizontal stratification and overhang can be allowed to develop. The model is applied to the Grand Canyon and comments are included on its relevance.     

Aseismio fault slip and block deformation in North China

In North China, the tectonic fault-block system enables us to use the Discontinuous Deformation Analysis (DDA) method to simulate the long-term cross-fault survey and other geodetic data related to aseismic tectonic deformation. By the simulation we have found that: (1) Slips on faults with different orientation are generally in agreement with the ENE-WSW tectonic stress field, but the slip pattern of faulting can vary from nearly orthogonal, to pure shear along the strike of the faults, this pattern cannot be explained by simple geometric relation between the strike of the fault and the direction of the tectonic shortening. This phenomenon has been observed at many sites of cross-fault geodetic surveys, and might be caused by the interactions between different blocks and faults. (2) According to the DDA model, if the average aseismic slip rate along major active faults is at the order of several tenths of millimeter per year as observed by the cross-fault geodetic surveys, the typical strain rate inside a block is at the order of 10^–8 year^–1 or less, so that the rate of 10^–6 year^–1, as reported by observations in smaller areas, cannot be the representative deformation rate in this region. (3) Between the slips caused by regional compression and block rotation, there is a possibility that the sense of slip caused by rigid body rotation in two adjacent blocks is opposite to the slip caused by the tectonic compression. But the magnitude of slip resulting from the tectonic compression is much larger than that due to the block rotation. Thus, in general, the slip pattern on faults as a whole agrees with the sense of tectonic compression in this region. That is to say, the slip caused by regional compression dominates the entire slip budget. (4) Based on (3), some observed slips in contradiction to ENE tectonic stress field may be caused by more localized sources, and have no tectonic significance.     

Coseismic and other short-term strain changes recorded with Sacks-Evertson strainmeters in a deep mine, South Africa

Summary. During 1977 March and April, three Sacks-Evertson borehole dilatometers were installed at the ends of boreholes drilled into the sidewall of an experimental tunnel at a depth of 3.1 km in the ERPM gold mine near Johannesburg. In the following year coseismic strain changes ranging from 5 ± 10⁻¹⁰ to values exceeding 5 ± 10⁻⁶ were recorded for hundreds of mine tremors in the magnitude range -1 to 3.7 and at hypocentral distances of 50 m to about 2 km. Hypocentral coordinates and magnitudes were determined from seismograms recorded from an underground array of geophones. Amplitudes and polarities of the coseismic strain steps are generally in excellent agreement with theoretical expectations based on point-source dislocation theory; specifically, the strain steps are proportional to the seismic moment divided by the cube of hypocentral distance. At a strain level of 5 ± 10⁻⁹ or greater the tremors do not appear to be preceded by any short-term indications of instability even for tremors producing coseismic steps greater than 5 ± 10⁻⁶ and for which the strainmeters were within a source radius of the hypocentre. Continuous strain changes observed at the times when the mine excavation, at a distance of about 100 m, is extended are in good agreement with calculated changes based on the theory of elasticity. A similar calculation is consistent with post-seismic strain changes observed to follow some of the closer tremors. These post-seismic strains show a logarithmic dependence on time following the tremor and appear to be due to the interaction of a tremor with the adjacent mine excavation rather than to deformation within the actual seismic source region.     

A nonlinear PDE formulation for offshore vessel pipeline installation

In this paper a nonlinear dynamic PDE formulation for a pipe string suspended from a pipelay vessel to the seabed in a pipelay operation is developed. This model extends a three-dimensional beam model capable of undergoing finite extension, shearing, twist and bending, to apply for marine applications by adding the effects of restoring forces, hydrodynamic drag and seabed interaction. The model is validated against the natural catenary equation and the FEM code RIFLEX. The model is extended to include the pipelay vessel dynamics by applying a potential theory formulation of a surface vessel, suited for dynamic positioning and low speed maneuvering, as a boundary condition for the PDE. This system is found to be input-output passive and stable. Pipeline installation applications where the presented model is suited are e.g., analysis and simulation of the installation operation, operability analysis, hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing for vessel control systems, and automation of the pipelay operation.     

Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies

Over 40 studies that analyse future GHG emissions allowances or reduction targets for different regions based on a wide range of effort-sharing approaches and long-term concentration stabilization levels are compared. This updates previous work undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Regional reduction targets differ significantly for each effort-sharing approach. For example, in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) 1990 region, new proposals that emphasize the equity principles of responsibility, capability, and need, and those based on equal cumulative per capita emissions (carbon budgets), lead to relatively stringent emissions reduction targets. In order to reach a low concentration stabilization level of 450?ppm CO₂e, the allowances under all effort sharing approaches in OECD1990 for 2030 would be approximately half of the emissions of 2010 with a large range, roughly two-thirds in the Economies in Transition (EIT), roughly at the 2010 emissions level or slightly below in Asia, slightly above the 2010 level in the Middle East and Africa and well below the 2010 level in Latin America. For 2050, allowances in OECD1990 and EIT would be a fraction of today's emissions, approximately half of 2010 emission levels in Asia, and possibly less than half of the 2010 level in Latin America.

Policy relevance

The concept of equity and the stringency of future national GHG reduction targets are at the heart of the current debate on the new international climate change agreement to be adopted in 2015. Policy insights gained from an analysis of over 40 studies, which have quantitatively analysed the proposed GHG reduction targets, are presented. It is found that the outcome of effort-sharing approaches is often largely determined by the way the equity principle is implemented and that the distributional impacts of such approaches can be significantly different depending on the criteria used, the stabilization level and shape of the global emissions pathway. However, the current literature only covers a small proportion of the possible allocation approaches. There should thus be an in-depth modelling comparison to ensure consistency and comparability of results and inform decision making regarding the reduction of GHG emissions.     

Reducing global GHG emissions by replicating successful sector examples: the ‘good practice policies’ scenario

This article shows the potential impact on global GHG emissions in 2030, if all countries were to implement sectoral climate policies similar to successful examples already implemented elsewhere. This assessment was represented in the IMAGE and GLOBIOM/G4M models by replicating the impact of successful national policies at the sector level in all world regions. The first step was to select successful policies in nine policy areas. In the second step, the impact on the energy and land-use systems or GHG emissions was identified and translated into model parameters, assuming that it would be possible to translate the impacts of the policies to other countries. As a result, projected annual GHG emission levels would be about 50 GtCO₂e by 2030 (2% above 2010 levels), compared to the 60 GtCO₂e in the ‘current policies’ scenario. Most reductions are achieved in the electricity sector through expanding renewable energy, followed by the reduction of fluorinated gases, reducing venting and flaring in oil and gas production, and improving industry efficiency. Materializing the calculated mitigation potential might not be as straightforward given different country priorities, policy preferences and circumstances.

Key policy insights

• Considerable emissions reductions globally would be possible, if a selection of successful policies were replicated and implemented in all countries worldwide.

• This would significantly reduce, but not close, the emissions gap with a 2°C pathway.

• From the selection of successful policies evaluated in this study, those implemented in the sector ‘electricity supply’ have the highest impact on global emissions compared to the ‘current policies’ scenario.

• Replicating the impact of these policies worldwide could lead to emission and energy trends in the renewable electricity, passenger transport, industry (including fluorinated gases) and buildings sector, that are close to those in a 2°C scenario.

• Using successful policies and translating these to policy impact per sector is a more reality-based alternative to most mitigation pathways, which need to make theoretical assumptions on policy cost-effectiveness.