Predictability of Interannual Variability in the Kuroshio Transport South of Japan Based on Wind Stress Data over the North Pacific

It is expected that a roughly two-year forecast of the Kuroshio transport variation can be made from a past record of wind stress data over the ocean, since it takes nearly ten years for the first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave to traverse the entire basin in the midlatitude North Pacific (∼30°N). We therefore investigated the predictability using an ocean general circulation model driven by the wind stress data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. Referring to a hindcast experiment as the control run, we carried out fifteen forecast experiments, the initial conditions of which are taken from the hindcast experiment at intervals of two years during the period from the end of 1969 to the end of 1997. Each of the forecast experiments is driven only by wind stress in the year preceding each experiment. The forecasted Kuroshio transport anomaly south of Japan agrees better with the hindcasted one during the first two years of the forecast in most cases. In some cases, however, significant disagreements occur, most of which are likely due to larger unpredictable variations caused by wind stress anomalies near Japan. At the end of forecast year 2, the anomaly correlation coefficient is about 0.7, and rms of the forecast error is smaller than rms of the hindcasted anomaly. These results indicate that the prediction of the interannual variability in the Kuroshio transport could be made two years in advance at a statistically significant level. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Roles of Biogeochemical Processes in the Oceanic Carbon Cycle Described with a Simple Coupled Physical-Biogeochemical Model

To evaluate the contribution of biogeochemical processes to the oceanic carbon cycle and to calculate the ratio of calcium carbonate to organic carbon downward export, we have incorporated biological and alkalinity pumps in the yoked high-latitude exchange/interior diffusion-advection (YOLDA) model. The biogeochemical processes are represented by four parameters. The values of the parameters are tuned so that the model can reproduce the observed phosphate and alkalinity distributions in each oceanic region. The sensitivity of the model to the biogeochemical parameters shows that biological production rates in the euphotic zone and decomposition depths of particulate matters significantly influence horizontal and vertical distributions of biogeochemical substances. The modeled vertical fluxes of particulate organic phosphorus and calcium carbonate are converted to vertical carbon fluxes by the biological pump and the alkalinity pump, respectively. The downward carbon flux from the surface layer to the deep layer in the entire region is estimated to be 3.36 PgC/yr, which consists of 2.93 PgC/yr from the biological pump and 0.43 PgC/yr from the alkalinity pump, which is consistent with previous studies. The modeled rain ratio is higher with depth and higher in the Pacific and Indian Oceans than in the Atlantic Ocean. The global rain ratio at the surface layer is calculated to be 0.14 to 0.15. This value lies between the lower and higher ends of the previous estimates, which range widely from 0.05 to 0.25. This study indicates that the rain ratio is unlikely to be higher than 0.15, at least in the surface waters.     

Kuroshio extension variability explored through assimilation of TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data into a quasi-geostrophic model

Mesoscale features in the eastward extension of the Kuroshio were investigated using assimilation of TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) data into a three-layer quasi-geostrophic model. The T/P data exhibited an elongated state of the southern recirculation gyre in 1993–95 and 1997, between whose two periods the gyre had a contracted state in 1995–96. A few stationary eddies were located in the southern gyre during the contracted state. The baroclinic instability, which was indicated by the phase shift from the uppermost-to the lowest-layer anomalies toward the downstream side, was evident near the Kuroshio Extension (KE) path. Since the instability never appeared in the artificial model without bottom topography, the topographic barrier for the eastward flow in the lowest layer was a necessary condition for the instability. The instability synchronized with the transition in the western region of the KE axis from the elongated to the contracted states. This evolution was interpreted as if the baroclinic instability played some part in the KE states and was a trigger for the transition from the elongated to the contracted states.     

Carbonate deposits on submerged seamounts in the northwestern Pacific Ocean

Abstract   The lithology of shallow-water carbonates collected from 19 sites on 16 seamounts in six areas of the northwestern Pacific Ocean using the Deep-sea Boring Machine System are described. The areas include the Amami Plateau, Daito Ridge, Oki-Daito Ridge, Urdaneta Plateau, Kyushu-Palau Ridge and Ogasawara Plateau. Chronological constraint is provided by calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphy, planktonic foraminiferal biostratigraphy, larger foraminiferal biostratigraphy and strontium (Sr) isotope stratigraphy. Large amounts of shallow-water carbonates accumulated on the seamounts during the Oligocene, a relatively cool period, whereas limited carbonate deposits formed during the Early Miocene, a relatively warm period. This might indicate that deposition of shallow-water carbonates on seamounts in the northwestern Pacific Ocean was not necessarily controlled by climatic conditions, but was related to volcanism and tectonics that served as foundations for reef/carbonate-platform formation. Remarkable differences in biotic composition exist between Cretaceous and Cenozoic shallow-water carbonates. Late Cretaceous shallow-water carbonates are distinguished by the occurrence of rudists, solenoporacean algae and microencrusters. Middle Eocene to Early Oligocene shallow-water carbonates are dominated by Halimeda or nummulitid and discocyclinid larger foraminifers. Scleractinian corals became common from the Oligocene onward. Nongeniculate coralline algae and larger foraminifers were common to abundant throughout the Eocene to the Pleistocene. The replacement of major carbonate producers in the shallow-water carbonate factory during post-Cretaceous time is in accordance with previous studies and is considered to reflect a shift in seawater chemistry.     

Stationary Rossby-waves in a two-layer model produced by a submarine ridge

Characteristics of stationary Rossby-waves are investigated by use of equations expressing conservation of potential vorticity for a quasi-geostrophic two-layer flow of an incompressible inviscid fluid on a beta-plane. A two-dimensional problem is discussed; the basic flow is directing eastward without horizontal shear, and the stationary Rossby-waves are produced by a two-dimensional bump extending in the north-south direction which is located on a sloping bottom with a constant north-south gradient.When the slope is steep, stream-lines are scarcely displaced being influenced by the bump. When the bottom has no north-south inclination, however, there is a case where group velocity of Rossby-waves produced by the bump directs westward and the stream-lines meander sinusoidally at the west of the bump. This phenomenon is called upstream influence. These two special cases have a possibility to explain two different mean paths for the Kuroshio namely, the path along the continental slope and the path with a stationary meander at the west of the Izu-Ogasawara Ridge.     

Contribution of a pathway through the Arctic Ocean to the re cent reduction in the ice cover

The sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean has been reducing and hit the low record in the summer of 2007. The anomaly was extremely large in the Pacific sector. The sea level height in the Bering Sea vs. the Greenland Sea has been analyzed and compared with the current meter data through the Bering Strait. A recent peak existed as a consequence of atmospheric circulation and is considered to contribute to inflow of the Pacific Water into the Arctic Basin. The timing of the Pacific Water inflow matched with the sea ice reduction in the Pacific sector and suggests a significant increase in heat flux. This component should be included in the model prediction for answering the question when the Arctic sea ice becomes a seasonal ice cover.     

Instability processes of mesoscale features in the Kuroshio Extension reproduced through assimilation of altimeter data into a quasi-geostrophic model using the variational method

The Kuroshio, one of the most energetic western boundary currents in the world, shows variations in its mesoscale features and recirculation gyres, providing an excellent test case of interactions between the mesoscale field and Kuroshio Extension (KE) states. A three-layer quasi-geostrophic model was used to reconstruct flow fields continuous in time and the horizontal plane from the TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data based on the variational method. Compared with the solutions obtained by the nudging method, the present results proved that the variational solution was closer to the real field. In the assimilation period, 1993–1997, the baroclinic instability index (BII) was defined to be the phase shift from the uppermost layer to the lowest layer with mesoscale features. In the first half of the assimilation period, the KE took the transition from the elongated to contracted states, in which BII decreased gradually, as a consequence of the KE state shift. In the second half period, BII increased in the downstream region just west of the Shatsky Rise, in which baroclinic instability contributed to the final stage of the contracted state, and was followed by rapidly weakened instability as a trigger of the opposite transition from the contracted to elongated states. The wind-driven recirculation gyre played an active role on the KE transition in the first half period, although not in the second half.     

Interannual variability of CFC-11 absorption by the ocean: an offline model study

The global ocean Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC-11) was simulated in an offline model driven by re-analysis ocean currents in order to identify the mechanisms of interannual to interdecadal variability of air?Csea CFC fluxes. The model was forced with the observed anthropogenic perturbations of atmospheric CFC-11 from the post industrial period (1938) following the OCMIP-II flux protocols along with the observed winds from 1960 to 1999 in the formulation of surface gas exchanges. The model ocean CFC-11 inventories, at the end of 1990s, accounted approximately 1% of the total atmospheric CFC-11, which is consistent with the corresponding observations. The mid-to-high latitude oceans were venue for strong (weak) oceanic sinks (sources) of CFC-11 during the winter (summer) months. The Southern Ocean (south of 40°S) and the North Atlantic (north of 35°N) provided two largest sinks of CFC-11, through which 31.4 and 14.6% of the global ocean CFC-11 entered, respectively. The eastern tropical Pacific Ocean exhibited large interannual variability of CFC-11 flux with a strong (weak) sink during La Ni?a (El Ni?o) years and represented 36% of the global CFC-11 flux variability. The North Atlantic and Southern Ocean were found as regions of large sink efficiency: a capacity to sink more CFC than outsource, although it reduced by 80 and 70%, respectively, in the last 40?years compared to 1960. The sink to source ratio of global ocean CFC-11 fluxes were reduced from 90 to 50% in the last 40?years. This indicates a saturation of CFC in the above-thermocline subsurface that makes the upper ocean less efficient in absorbing CFC in recent decades. A positive trend in CFC sink is now limited to the Southern Ocean, central tropical Pacific and western boundary current regions which possess active upwelling of old water with long time since last atmospheric contact. However, a globally averaged trend was a reduced CFC-11 sink, by emitting 30% of the total ocean CFC-11 that was absorbed during last 40?years.