Preliminary organic petrography of Palaeozoic rocks from the Grand Banks,Newfoundland

Samples of lower Palaeozoic bedrock from the Grand Banks of Newfoundland were examined using reflected light microscopy and Rock-Eval pyrolysis. These samples contained organic material which included bitumen (structureless organic material), acritarchs, chitinozoa, scolecodonts and graptolites. The reflectance of the organic material increased from acritarchs towards graptolites with bitumen showing a wide range of reflectance. Multiple phases of oil migration through one sample were inferred by examination of the bitumens: the lowest reflecting being more recent than the highest reflecting bitumen. Combined reflectance and Rock-Eval analysis indicate that these samples are mature to overmature. The two oldest samples (Arenig-Llanvirn, Ordovician) are assessed as mature and as having potential for generation of liquid hydrocarbons, but must be considered as mainly gas prone.     

An integrated hydrological model for rain‐induced landslide prediction

This paper describes an extension to the Combined Hydrology And Stability Model (CHASM) to fully include the effects of vegetation and slope plan topography on slope stability. The resultant physically based numerical model is designed to be applied to site‐specific slopes in which a detailed assessment of unsaturated and saturated hydrology is required in relation to vegetation, topography and slope stability. Applications are made to the Hawke's Bay region in New Zealand where shallow‐seated instability is strongly associated with spatial and temporal trends in vegetation cover types, and the Mid‐Levels region in Hong Kong, an area subject to a variety of landslide mechanisms, some of which may be subject to strong topographic control. An improved understanding of process mechanism, afforded by the model, is critical for reliable and appropriate design of slope stabilization and remedial measures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dauphiné twinning and texture memory in polycrystalline quartz. Part 3: texture memory during phase transformation

Samples of quartz-bearing rocks were heated above the α (trigonal)–β (hexagonal) phase transformation of quartz (625–950°C) to explore changes in preferred orientation patterns. Textures were measured both in situ and ex situ with neutron, synchrotron X-ray and electron backscatter diffraction. The trigonal–hexagonal phase transformation does not change the orientation of c- and a-axes, but positive and negative rhombs become equal in the hexagonal β-phase. In naturally deformed quartzites measured by neutron diffraction a perfect texture memory was observed, i.e. crystals returned to the same trigonal orientation they started from, with no evidence of twin boundaries. Samples measured by electron back-scattered diffraction on surfaces show considerable twinning and memory loss after the phase transformation. In experimentally deformed quartz rocks, where twinning was induced mechanically before heating, the orientation memory is lost. A mechanical model can explain the memory loss but so far it does not account for the persistence of the memory in quartzites. Stresses imposed by neighboring grains remain a likely cause of texture memory in this mineral with a very high elastic anisotropy. If stresses are imposed experimentally the internal stresses are released during the phase transformation and the material returns to its original state prior to deformation. Similarly, on surfaces there are no tractions and thus texture memory is partially lost.     

Centennial scale benthic foraminiferal record of late Holocene oceanographic variability in Disko Bugt,West Greenland

A new centennial scale benthic foraminiferal record of late Holocene climate variability and oceanographic changes off West Greenland (Disko Bugt) highlights substantial subsurface water mass changes (e.g. temperature and salinity) of the West Greenland Current (WGC) over the past 3.6 ka BP. Benthic foraminifera reveal a long-term late Holocene cooling trend, which may be attributed to increased advection of cold, low-salinity water masses derived from the East Greenland Current (EGC). Cooling becomes most pronounced from c. 1.7 ka BP onwards. At this point the calcareous Atlantic benthic foraminiferal fauna decrease significantly and is replaced by an agglutinated Arctic fauna. Superimposed on this cooling trend, centennial scale variability in the WGC reveals a marked cold phase at c. 2.5 ka BP, which may correspond to the 2.7 ka BP cooling-event recorded in marine and terrestrial archives elsewhere in the North Atlantic region. A warm phase recognized at c. 1.8 ka BP is likely to correspond to the ‘Roman Warm Period’ and represents the warmest bottom water conditions. During the time period of the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ we observe only a slight warming of the WGC. A progressively more dominant cold water contribution from the EGC on the WGC is documented by the prominent rise in abundance of agglutinated Arctic water species from 0.9 ka BP onwards. This cooling event culminates at c. 0.3 ka BP and represents the coldest episode of the ‘Little Ice Age’.Gradually increased influence of cold, low-salinity water masses derived from the EGC may be linked to enhanced advection of Polar and Arctic water by the EGC. These changes are possibly associated with a reported shift in the large-scale North Atlantic Oscillation atmospheric circulation pattern towards a more frequent negative North Atlantic Oscillation mode during the late Holocene.     

The data‐driven approach as an operational real‐time flood forecasting model

Accurate water level forecasts are essential for flood warning. This study adopts a data‐driven approach based on the adaptive network–based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast the daily water levels of the Lower Mekong River at Pakse, Lao People's Democratic Republic. ANFIS is a hybrid system combining fuzzy inference system and artificial neural networks. Five ANFIS models were developed to provide water level forecasts from 1 to 5 days ahead, respectively. The results show that although ANFIS forecasts of water levels up to three lead days satisfied the benchmark, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts were only slightly better in performance compared with the currently adopted operational model. This limitation is imposed by the auto‐ and cross‐correlations of the water level time series. Output updating procedures based on the autoregressive (AR) and recursive AR (RAR) models were used to enhance ANFIS model outputs. The RAR model performed better than the AR model. In addition, a partial recursive procedure that reduced the number of recursive steps when applying the AR or the RAR model for multi‐step‐ahead error prediction was superior to the fully recursive procedure. The RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure significantly improved three‐, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts. Our study further shows that for long lead times, ANFIS model errors are dominated by lag time errors. Although the ANFIS model with the RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure provided the best results, this method was able to reduce the lag time errors significantly for the falling limbs only. Improvements for the rising limbs were modest. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Origin of glass in upper mantle xenoliths from the quaternary volcanics of Gees,West Eifel,Germany

Glasses have been analysed from six mantle-derived xenoliths (5 orthopyroxene and/or olivine-rich, 1 clinopyroxene-rich) from the Quaternary volcanics S.E. of Gees, West Eifel, Germany. The glasses in these xenoliths occur as pools surrounding and embaying spinels, as inclusions in spinels, as veins and stringers within phlogopiterich veins, and as jackets partially surrounding some of the xenoliths. Glasses analysed are felsic and characterised by low to intermediate SiO₂ (40–62 wt.%), variable CaO (1–11 wt.%) and MgO (1–4 wt.%), high Al₂O₃ (14–21 wt.%), and up to 11 wt.% Na₂O + K₂O. The jacket glasses have the lowest SiO₂, highest CaO and MgO. Variations in all of the glass compositions are similar and imply a unifying factor or process in their formation. Glass as pools and stringers within veins of phlogopite forms part of the same trends shown by all the glasses when plotted on bivariate (oxide vs SiO₂) diagrams but can be distinguished from glass surrounding and enclosed by spinels. Glasses occurring as jackets are similar in composition to those in pools and veinlets associated with phlogopite but are of quite different composition to the glasses found within the xenoliths that they partially enclose. The occurrence and chemistry of the glasses do not support such glasses as representing original or differentiated magma trapped during formation of the xenolithic assemblages. The chemistry of the glasses also makes it unlikely that they were produced by dissociation of phlogopite during ascent of the xenoliths. The most likely origin for the glasses is that they represent volatile-rich melts which migrated through upper mantle material. These melts are likely to be responsible for the heterogeneous nature of the mantle underlying this part of the West Eifel region.     

Comparing Human and Neural Network Learning of Climate Categories

This study compares how humans and neural networks classify climate types. Human subjects were asked to classify climates from monthly temperature and precipitation patterns. To model their learning process, the same data were used to produce input vectors that trained a pattern associator neural network. Both human subjects and the neural network classified climates accurately after 10 rounds of supervised learning. The neural network successfully modeled the rate of human learning and the ability to learn specific climate categories. Moreover, the neural network weights used to classify climates correspond to distinct visual characteristics in temperature and precipitation. These results suggest that neural networks can model the formation of visual categories.     

Nitrogen and sulfur species in Antarctic aerosols at Mawson,Palmer Station,and Marsh (King George Island)

High volume bulk aerosol samples were collected continuously at three Antarctic sites: Mawson (67.60° S, 62.50° E) from 20 February 1987 to 6 January 1992; Palmer Station (64.77° S, 64.06° W) from 3 April 1990 to 15 June 1991; and Marsh (62.18° S, 58.30° W) from 28 March 1990, to 1 May 1991. All samples were analyzed for Na⁺, SO ₄ ^2– , NO ₃ ^– , methanesulfonate (MSA), NH ₄ ⁺ ,²¹⁰Pb, and⁷Be. At Mawson for which we have a multiple year data set, the annual mean concentration of each species sometimes vary significantly from one year to the next: Na⁺, 68–151 ng m^–3; NO ₃ ^– , 25–30 ng m^–3; nss SO ₄ ^2– , 81–97 ng m^–3; MSA, 19–28 ng m^–3; NH ₄ ⁺ , 16–21 ng m^–3;²¹⁰Pb, 0.75–0.86 fCi m^–3. Results from multiple variable regression of non-sea-salt (nss) SO ₄ ^2– with MSA and NO ₃ ^– as the independent variables indicates that, at Mawson, the nss SO ₄ ^2– /MSA ratio resulting from the oxidation of dimethylsulfide (DMS) is 2.80±0.13, about 13% lower than our earlier estimate (3.22) that was based on 2.5 years of data. A similar analysis indicates that the ratio at Palmer is about 40% lower, 1.71±0.10, and more comparable to previous results over the southern oceans. These results when combined with previously published data suggest that the differences in the ratio may reflect a more rapid loss of MSA relative to nss SO ₄ ^2– during transport over Antarctica from the oceanic source region. The mean²¹⁰Pb concentrations at Palmer and Marsh and the mean NO ₃ ^– concentration at Palmer are about a factor of two lower than those at Mawson. The²¹⁰Pb distributions are consistent with a²¹⁰Pb minimum in the marine boundary layer in the region of 40°–60° S. These features and the similar seasonalities of NO ₃ ^– and²¹⁰Pb at Mawson support the conclusion that the primary source regions for NO ₃ ^– are continental. In contrast, the mean concentrations of MSA, nss SO ₄ ^2– , and NH ₄ ⁺ at Palmer are all higher than those at Mawson: MSA by a factor of 2; nss SO ₄ ^2– by 10%; and NH ₄ ⁺ by more than 50%. However, the factor differences exhibit substantial seasonal variability; the largest differences generally occur during the austral summer when the concentrations of most of the species are highest. NH ₄ ⁺ /(nss SO ₄ ^2– +MSA) equivalent ratios indicate that NH₃ neutralizes about 60% of the sulfur acids during December at both Mawson and Palmer, but only about 30% at Mawson during February and March.