Critical rainfall statistics for predicting watershed flood responses: rethinking the design storm concept

Recent advances have been made to modernize estimates of probable precipitation scenarios; however, researchers and engineers often continue to assume that rainfall events can be described by a small set of event statistics, typically average intensity and event duration. Given the easy availability of precipitation data and advances in desk‐top computational tools, we suggest that it is time to rethink the ‘design storm’ concept. Design storms should include more holistic characteristics of flood‐inducing rain events, which, in addition to describing specific hydrologic responses, may also be watershed or regionally specific. We present a sensitivity analysis of nine precipitation event statistics from observed precipitation events within a 60‐year record for Tompkins County, NY, USA. We perform a two‐sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to objectively identify precipitation event statistics of importance for two related hydrologic responses: (1) peak outflow from the Six Mile Creek watershed and (2) peak depth within the reservoir behind the Six Mile Creek Dam. We identify the total precipitation depth, peak hourly intensity, average intensity, event duration, interevent duration, and several statistics defining the temporal distribution of precipitation events to be important rainfall statistics to consider for predicting the watershed flood responses. We found that the two hydrologic responses had different sets of statistically significant parameters. We demonstrate through a stochastic precipitation generation analysis the effects of starting from a constrained parameter set (intensity and duration) when predicting hydrologic responses as opposed to utilizing an expanded suite of rainfall statistics. In particular, we note that the reduced precipitation parameter set may underestimate the probability of high stream flows and therefore underestimate flood hazard. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hammond Hill Research Catchment: Supporting hydrologic investigations of rooting zone and vegetation water dynamics under climate change

The Hammond Hill Research Catchment (HH) is a small (120 ha), temperate, second order tributary to Six Mile Creek, Cayuga Lake, and the Great Lakes (42.42°, −76.32°). The HH has been monitored since January 2017 for the purpose of understanding how recent infiltration mixes with antecedent soil water on hillslope forest floors and the spatial and temporal patterns of Root Water Uptake (RWU) by temperate northeastern US tree species (eastern hemlock [Tsuga canadensis], American beech [Fagus grandifolia], and sugar maple [Acer saccharum]). These data are informing us about the hydrologic consequences of anticipated tree species composition change and supporting the development of more refined ecohydrological models. The glaciated catchment is underlain by a shallow confining siltstone layer (1–1.5 m depth) and densely covered with an approximately 60 year old regrowth mixed species forest of hemlock, beech, and other deciduous tree species common to the northeastern US. Current datasets from the HH include precipitation snow water equivalent, discharge, and associated isotopic water compositions, δ²H & δ¹⁸O. Measurements of (top 10 cm) soil water content, as well as bulk soil water and hemlock and beech xylem isotopic compositions are made at several locations across a topographic wetness gradient. The near-term role of the HH is to support an understanding of the environmental and ecological drivers of plant RWU competition. All data from the HH are publicly available.     

River adjustment to changes in sediment load: The effects of tin mining on the Ringarooma River,Tasmania, 1875–1984

The mining of alluvial tin in the Ringarooma basin began in 1875, reached a peak in 1900–20, and had virtually ceased by 1982. During that time 40 million m³ of mining waste were supplied to the main river, quickly replacing the natural bed material and requiring major adjustments to the channel. Based on estimates of sediment supply from more than 50 widely scattered mines and the frequency of flows capable of transporting the introduced load, the river's transport history is reconstructed using a mass-conservation model. Because of the lengthy time period (110 years) and river distance (75 km) involved, the model cannot predict detailed change but it does reproduce the main pattern of sediment movement in which successive phases of aggradation and degradation progress downstream. Peak storage is predicted in that part of the river where braiding and anastomosis are best developed. Aggradation was most rapid in the upper reaches close to major supply points, becoming slower and later with distance downstream. Channel width increased by up to 300 per cent where the valley floor was broad and braiding became relatively common. Bridges had frequently to be replaced. While bed levels were still rising in lower reaches, degradation began in upper ones, notably after 1950, and by 1984 had progressed downriver over 30 km. Rates of incision reached 0·5 m yr^?1, especially in the early 1970s when record high flows occurred. As a result of degradation the bed material became gravelly through either reexposure of the original bed or lag concentration of coarser fractions. Also a narrower unbraided channel has developed. The river is beginning to heal itself and upper reaches now have reasonably stable beds but at least another 50 years will be required for the river to cleanse its channel of mining debris.     

Asymmetry of river channel cross-sections: Part II. mode of development and local variation

A five-stage model of the development of cross-sectional asymmetry is proposed in which alternating bar deposition and bed scour are important elements. Quasi-periodic reversals in the sense of asymmetry and a progressive increase in the magnitude of asymmetry at sections which develop an asymmetry initially are major features of the model. Application of Bridge's (1977) model confirms several features of the model and suggests that the degree of asymmetry is directly related to bend curvature. After the initial stages, subsequent changes to the cross-sectional and planimetric form of the channel may be intensified by the developing asymmetry through a system of positive feedbacks in which the levels of form and flow distortion are interrelated. Asymmetry appears to provide an important link between cross-sectional and plan form adjustment. Spatial series of asymmetry obtained for three lengths along a mountain stream contain features predicted by the model. In particular, the dominant peak in spectral density functions occurs at a frequency with a corresponding wavelength close to 4πw which has significance in terms of the meander wavelength-width relationship (Richards, 1976a). This consistency is remarkable considering local differences. In addition, sections in curved reaches tend to be more asymmetric, especially when sited at pools. However, contrary to expectation, channel width is not significantly correlated with asymmetry.     

Inbank and overbank velocity conditions in an arid zone anastomosing river

Relative to those at sub‐bankfull flow, hydraulic conditions at overbank flow, whether in the channel or on the floodplain, are poorly understood. Here, velocity conditions are analysed over an unusually wide range of flows in the arid zone river of Cooper Creek with its complex system of anastomosing channels and large fluctuations in floodplain width. At‐a‐station hydraulic geometry relationships reveal sharp discontinuities in velocity at the inbank–overbank transition, the nature of the discontinuity varying with the degree of flow confinement and the level of channel–floodplain interaction. However, despite inter‐sectional differences, velocities remain modest throughout the flow range in this low‐gradient river, and the large increases in at‐a‐station discharge are principally accommodated by changes in cross‐sectional area. Velocity distribution plots suggest that within‐channel conditions during overbank flow are characterized by a central band of high velocity which penetrates far toward the bed, helping to maintain already deep cross‐sections. Floodplain resistance along Cooper Creek is concentrated at channel bank tops where vegetation density is highest, and the subsequent flow retardation is transmitted across the surface of the channels over distances as large as 50–70 m. The rough floodplain surface affects flood wave transmission, producing significant decreases in wave speeds downstream. The character of the wave‐speed–discharge relationship also changes longitudinally, from log–linear in the upper reaches to nonlinear where the floodplain broadens appreciably. The nonlinear form is similar in several respects to relationships proposed for more humid rivers, with flood wave speed reaching an intermediate maximum at about four‐fifths bankfull discharge before decreasing to a minimum at approximately Q_2·33. It does not regain the value at the intermediate maximum until the 10 year flood, by which time floodplain depths have become relatively large and broad floodways more active. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A proposed probabilistic seismic tsunami hazard analysis methodology

Natural Hazards - We expand on existing probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) approaches by presenting a methodology wherein the epistemic uncertainties associated with tsunami timing,...     

Evidence for variations in cryogenic extraction deuterium biases of plant xylem water across foundational northeastern US trees

Measurements of oxygen and hydrogen isotopes in plant xylem water (²H, ¹⁸O) have helped to redefine conceptual and numerical models of the hydrological cycle and understand how plants compete for subsurface water. Recent experiments have shown that Cryogenic Vacuum Extraction (CVE) of plant xylem water can result in a δ²H bias. We tested if CVE δ²H-biases varied significantly across seven foundational northeastern US forest trees with a series of tree core rehydration experiments. Our analysis demonstrated that CVE δ²H-biases were well predicted by sample gravimetric water content and varied significantly with tree species identity. We show that species-level δ²H-bias corrections can result in substantially different understandings of plant water uptake and transpiration versus uncorrected data or generic bias corrections. This research demonstrates an urgent need for the critical evaluation of CVE for plant water extraction. In the absence of a stronger understanding of CVE δ²H-biases, we recommend that xylem water δ²H observations should not be used in plant water uptake studies.     

An Aeronautical Temporal GIS for Post-Flight Assessment of Navigation Performance

This paper describes the design and development of an experimental GIS prototype that may be used to assist experienced pilots, student pilots and flight instructors for post-flight evaluation of navigation performance. The system is developed as a GIS experimental application which employs geographical data derived from the Digital Chart of the World integrated with airspace data derived from the ICAO 1:500,000 Aeronautical Chart. Real-time data are collected and integrated within a monitoring computing environment from external sensors which include GPS, altitude and relative motion sensors. This enables the generation of multi-layered digital maps and navigation data capable of being rapidly re-configured to enhance visualization by abstraction. The integration of real time navigation data with geographical data facilitates airborne decision-making, cockpit management, and makes a valuable contribution to flight safety.     

The evolution of tidal creek networks,mary river,northern Australia

Tidal creek networks have in 50 years extended over 30 km inland across the coastal plains of the Mary River in northern Australia, invading freshwater wetlands and destroying the associated vegetation. The networks have grown at an exponential rate through a combination of main channel extension and tributary development, with concomitant widening of the creeks. A large tidal range, very small elevational differences over the plains, and the availability of preexisting channel lines (notably in the form of palaeochannels) have been major factors contributing to the rapid rate of expansion. Close parallels exist between these networks and terrestrial networks as regards modes of growth and planimetric properties. A channel is initiated when the diffuse flow of a seepage zone becomes concentrated through localized scour. Subsequent development is characterized by the rapid extension of long first-order channels, with most tributary addition occurring later. Model tests suggest that branching was more likely on exterior links in the early stages but that exterior and interior link branching became more equally likely through time. Although the headward limits of the main creeks seem to have been reached, tributary infilling will continue to progress upstream. Only in the most downstream parts is a stable drainage density being approached. The networks not only satisfy the laws of drainage network composition and the basic postulates of the random model but also depart from topologic randomness in similar ways to terrestrial networks. Both topologic and length properties have changed during evolution but largely at the link rather than network scale. The close correspondence with terrestrial networks may be due to the low relief and the relatively unconstrained nature of growth in which availability of space was the main determining factor.     

Asymmetry of river channel cross-sections: Part I. Quantitative indices

Most river cross-sections display some degree of asymmetry for which there is no adequate quantitative definition. Indices of asymmetry are derived using two principles based on areal differences and maximum depth displacement relative to the channel centreline. The indices are assessed firstly by comparing values for a set of constructed channel shapes which are ranked in order of increasing visual asymmetry, and secondly by analysing a series of 50 cross-sections from a small mountain stream. Two indices, A* and A₂, are probably the most valuable, and could be used to test and generate hypotheses regarding the related changes to cross-sectional and planimetric form which occur during the transition from a straight to a meandering channel, particularly if parallel measures of flow asymmetry are defined. Part II of this paper, concerned with ‘Mode of Development and Local Variation’ will be published in a subsequent issue of this journal.