Sensitivity of multi-gas climate policy to emission metrics

The Global Warming Potential (GWP) index is currently used to create CO₂-equivalent emission totals for multi-gas greenhouse targets. While many alternatives have been proposed, it is not possible to uniquely define a metric that captures the different impacts of emissions of substances with widely disparate atmospheric lifetimes, which leads to a wide range of possible index values. We examine the sensitivity of emissions and climate outcomes to the value of the index used to aggregate methane emissions using a technologically detailed integrated assessment model. The methane index is varied between 4 and 70, with a central value of 21, which is the 100-year GWP value currently used in policy contexts. We find that the sensitivity to index value is, at most, 10–18 % in terms of methane emissions but only 2–3 % in terms of the maximum total radiative forcing change, with larger regional emissions differences in some cases. The choice of index also affects estimates of the cost of meeting a given end of century forcing target, with total two-gas mitigation cost increasing by 7–9 % if the index is increased, and increasing in most scenarios from 4 to 23 % if the index is lowered, with a slight (1 %) decrease in total cost in one case. We find that much of the methane abatement occurs as the induced effect of CO₂ abatement rather than explicit abatement, which is one reason why climate outcomes are relatively insensitive to the index value. We also find that the near-term climate benefit of increasing the methane index is small.     

沂南贺家沟地区化探异常特征及找矿方向研究

贺家沟地区位于沂南矽卡岩型金矿典型矿床的外围地区,在矿床成因和成矿模式等方面均具有高度相似性。在该地区开展化探扫面工作,根据化探异常结合该地区的成矿地质条件能快速有效的缩小找矿靶区。本文从化探样品分析数据入手,分别从化探异常下限的确定、化探异常特征、化探元素的组合分类以及主要成矿元素在该地区的分布特征等方面进行分析,从而对该地区的成矿条件有了初步认识。在此基础上圈定了以Au,Ag,Cu,Mo等为主要元素的HS1化探异常,该异常规模较大,浓集中心明显,其中主成矿元素Au具有三级浓度分带,Cu,Ag等其他元素异常亦套合较好。通过开展异常查证工作,在该异常区内发现铜金多金属矿(化)点共3处,矿(化)点与化探异常浓集中心的空间吻合程度较高。该地区化探扫面工作取得了较好的成效,具有较好的找矿前景。     

Effects of Enclosure on Plant and Soil Restoration in the Junggar Desert

Enclosure is commonly used in the restoration of degraded grasslands. However, the effects of enclosure on grassland plant and soil restoration remain controversial, particularly in deserts. To assess the effects of enclosure on desert plants and soil properties, using high throughput sequencing, the differences between plants and soil were systematically analyzed before and after enclosure construction. The soil organic carbon, total nitrogen and total phosphorus contents of the three desert flora increased and decreased, but the difference was not significant; enclosure increased plant height, coverage, aboveground biomass, and species richness by 58.99%, 59.35%, 33.29%, and 51.21%, respectively, in a Seriphidium transiliense formation; by 15.49%, 33.52%, 20.85%, and 5.13%, respectively, in a Haloxylon persicum formation; and by 83.80%, 31.51%, 76.66% and 33.33%, respectively, in an Anabasis salsa formation. For soil bacteria, enclosure significantly increased the average number of operational taxonomic units and Shannon-Wiener index by 12.74% and 2.92%, respectively, under S. transiliense formation and by 17.08% and 3.17%, respectively, under H. persicum formation. However, enclosure had no significant effect on the average number of operational taxonomic units or Shannon-Wiener index under A. salsa formation. Enclosure significantly increased desert plants, soil bacterial diversity, and desert plant community productivity; however, the increase in soil nutrient content was not significant. These results demonstrate that enclosure is effective for restoring desert ecosystems but may have little effect on the soil nutrient content.     

山东青州王坟地区1∶5万水系沉积物地球化学特征及找矿方向

鲁西近年来陆续发现了多处金及多金属矿床,如沂南铜井、金场,平邑归来庄、磨坊沟,沂源金星头,临朐铁寨等,但对上述地区以外的找矿工作还相对薄弱。王坟地区作为临朐铁寨金银多金属矿区外围地区,具有相似的成矿地质条件。本次研究通过在王坟地区开展的1∶5万水系沉积物测量工作,对其相关成矿元素进行聚类分析、因子分析等地质统计学分析。结果表明,区内Pb、Ag异常规模大,峰值高,富集特征及浓集中心明显,相关元素套合较好。通过地化剖面及探槽工程等手段进行异常查证,所取样品中Pb、Ag等低温热液元素分析结果与异常特征套合较好,本区内沿断裂带找寻Pb、Ag等低温热液元素矿床或矿化体潜力较大。     

注聚调驱井聚合物堵塞物的矿物复合结构形貌及组成特征

胜利油田渤19区块注交联聚合物开采多年后,因注入水的水质不达标导致聚合物过度交联形成强凝胶,造成聚合物注入区块许多油水井的堵塞。对现场聚合物垢样品所做的化学组分、表面元素能谱及红外光谱的研究表明,垢的主体结构由交联的聚丙烯酰胺组成,交联体吸收了大量水分,在交联体内小环境中因富集而形成氯化物矿物晶体无机垢结构,而在成垢的过程中又将地层内的一些粘土矿物包裹于交联体内,形成具有聚合物-矿物复合结构的强胶凝态物质,严重影响聚合物注入—调剖—驱油过程中的聚合物溶液的流动。     

柴达木盆地南八仙地区渐新世浅水三角洲物源及沉积演化

以古近系渐新统下干柴沟组上段(E23)为研究对象,在精细岩芯观察和钻(测)井资料综合分析的基础上,结合重矿物组合、ZTR指数、砂岩碎屑组分、粒度累积概率图和砂地比等参数综合分析结果,对柴达木盆地南八仙地区E23湖盆扩张期弱退积型浅水三角洲物源方向、砂体展布规律和沉积微相发育演化进行了深入研究。结果表明：① 南八仙地区E23沉积时期物源主要来自南祁连山中酸性岩浆岩和中高级变质岩发育区,物源方向为近北东—南西向,稳定重矿物(磁铁矿、石榴子石、白钛矿和锆石)含量高(质量分数介于81. 0%~99. 9%)、不稳定重矿物(绿帘石和角闪石)含量低。② 南八仙地区E23沉积时期为浅水三角洲—滨浅湖沉积环境,主要发育水下分流河道砂体,岩性主要为岩屑长石砂岩,其次为长石岩屑砂岩,砂体的成分成熟度一般中等—较差、分选磨圆度中等—较差,粒度概率图以反映河流作用的一跳跃一悬浮式为主;沉积构造类型多样,主要发育块状层理、正粒序层理、平行层理和槽状交错层理。③ E23沉积时期,南八仙地区继承性发育3条北东—南西向呈条带状展布的砂体富集带(砂地比值介于35%~65%之间),早期到中期砂体发育程度增强,呈进积式;中期到晚期砂体发育程度有所减弱,呈弱退积式。④ E23沉积时期,南八仙地区处于浅水三角洲前缘亚相沉积环境,持续发育3个呈北东—南西向展布的沉积朵叶体,主要发育水下分流河道微相,其次为水下分流间湾微相,早期到中期浅水三角洲前缘发育规模增大,中期到晚期发育规模减小。     

冬小麦冬季灌水适应性温度指标研究

通过2011-2013年2个越冬期的盆栽试验,利用高低温(交变)湿热试验箱研究了不同最低温度下(-9℃、-6℃、-3℃和0℃)冬灌对冬小麦叶片理化性质、产量构成要素及产量的影响。结果表明,与最低温度为0℃的处理相比,在最低温度为-9℃和-6℃的处理造成了冬小麦叶绿素含量和气孔导度的大幅下降,可溶性糖含量大幅升高,差异均达显著(p0.01),灌水处理并没有带来明显的改善;而最低温度为-3℃时,叶绿素和可溶性糖含量总体上无明显差别,气孔导度则有一定程度的降低,差异显著(p0.05),冬灌导致其叶片叶绿素和可溶性糖含量分别有不同程度的升高和降低,具有明显的正效应。最低温度为0℃的处理,冬灌对冬小麦叶片叶绿素含量、可溶性糖含量及气孔导度等影响均有明显的正效应。从产量及其构成要素上看,-6℃与-9℃条件下,冬灌致使单株小穗数、穗粒数和穗粒重下降;-3℃和0℃条件下,冬灌提高了单株穗粒数和穗粒重。综上所述,最低温度在-6℃及以下不适合进行冬灌,而最低温度在-3℃及以上则适合。     

Wave-CISK的一个斜压半地转模式和低频振荡

本文建立了一个描写低纬大气运动的斜压半地转的wave-CISK模式,其中引入了一个反映CISK机制的无量纲的凝结潜热参数η(z),并求得了η=0和η≠0条件下wave-CISK模式的解析解,理论研究进一步说明wave-CISK机制对于大气低频振荡起重要的作用。     

柴达木盆地西部扎哈泉地区新近系上干柴沟组滩坝砂体沉积演化及其控制因素*

滩坝砂体是岩性油气藏勘探的重要储集体,已经成为中国陆相湖盆增储上产的重要现实领域。为了深入评价柴达木盆地西部扎哈泉地区新近系中新统上干柴沟组滨浅湖滩坝砂体的油气勘探前景以及预测有利勘探区带和勘探目标,文中在岩心观察和钻(测)井资料综合分析的基础上,结合岩石薄片、累计粒度概率曲线、暗色泥岩泥地比和砂地比敏感参数分析结果,对该地区上干柴沟组滨浅湖滩坝砂体发育演化特征和古地貌演化特征进行了详细研究。结果表明: (1)扎哈泉地区上干柴沟组沉积时期发育辫状三角洲—滨浅湖沉积体系,滩坝砂体发育,岩性主要为岩屑长石细砂岩—极细砂岩,成分成熟度中等—较差、分选磨圆度中等—好,粒度概率曲线以反映波浪作用的两段跳跃式加悬浮式为主;沉积构造类型多样,主要发育浪成沙纹交错层理、波状层理、丘状交错层理和透镜状层理。(2)上干柴沟组沉积时期,研究区滩坝砂体发育规模先增大后减小;早期到中期,滩坝砂体发育规模不断增大,其中近岸坝主要表现为向南和向东2个方向扩张,呈北偏西方向展布,远岸坝主要表现为南北方向扩张,呈近北西—南东方向展布;中期到晚期,滩坝砂体的发育规模不断减小,其中近岸坝主要表现为向南北2个方向收缩并向东扩展,展布方向变为东偏南转东北方向,远岸坝主要表现为南北方向收缩。(3)上干柴沟组沉积时期,研究区古地貌呈西高东低、南北低中间高的特征;从早期到中期,研究区中部古地貌高点不断向东和东南方向大幅度扩展,范围不断扩大;中期到晚期,古地貌高点范围不断向北和北西2个方向收缩,范围缩小;同时,研究区东南角古地貌高点范围不断向北扩大。综合上述分析结果,认为柴达木盆地扎哈泉地区上干柴沟组滩坝砂体发育演化受控于物源规模大小和微古地貌的发育演化,其中微古地貌发育演化是滩坝砂体发育演化的主要控制因素。研究成果可为相似的地质背景下滩坝砂体成因的岩性圈闭预测提供参考。