Assessing the performance of WRF model in predicting high-impact weather conditions over Central and Western Africa: an ensemble-based approach

Natural Hazards - For numerical weather prediction over a particular region, it is important to know the best combination of physical parameterizations available in the considered modelling frame...     

A comprehensive study of surface and upper-air characteristics over two stations on the west coast of India during the occurrence of a cyclonic storm

While qualitative information from meteorological satellites has long been recognized as critical for monitoring weather events such as tropical cyclone activity, quantitative data are required to improve the numerical prediction of these events. In this paper, the sea surface winds from QuikSCAT, cloud motion vectors and water vapor winds from KALPANA-1 are assimilated using three-dimensional variational assimilation technique within Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) modeling system. Further, the sensitivity experiments are also carried out using the available cumulus convective parameterizations in WRF modeling system. The model performance is evaluated using available observations, and both qualitative and quantitative analyses are carried out while analyzing the surface and upper-air characteristics over Mumbai (previously Bombay) and Goa during the occurrence of the tropical cyclone PHYAN at the west coast of Indian subcontinent. The model-predicted surface and upper-air characteristics show improvements in most of the situations with the use of the satellite-derived winds from QuikSCAT and KALPANA-1. Some of the model results are also found to be better in sensitivity experiments using cumulus convection schemes as compared to the CONTROL simulation.     

Ocean and atmospheric characteristics associated with the cyclogenesis and rapid intensification of NIO super cyclonic storms during 1981–2020

Natural Hazards - Flooding events in the Lower Benue valley of Nigeria are often associated with huge damage to properties and loss of life in the adjoining communities. Specific objectives of this...     

Validating quantitative precipitation forecast for the Flood Meteorological Office,Patna region during 2011–2014

In order to issue an accurate warning for flood, a better or appropriate quantitative forecasting of precipitation is required. In view of this, the present study intends to validate the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) issued during southwest monsoon season for six river catchments (basin) under the flood meteorological office, Patna region. The forecast is analysed statistically by computing various skill scores of six different precipitation ranges during the years 2011–2014. The analysis of QPF validation indicates that the multi-model ensemble (MME) based forecasting is more reliable in the precipitation ranges of 1–10 and 11–25 mm. However, the reliability decreases for higher ranges of rainfall and also for the lowest range, i.e., below 1 mm. In order to testify synoptic analogue method based MME forecasting for QPF during an extreme weather event, a case study of tropical cyclone Phailin is performed. It is realized that in case of extreme events like cyclonic storms, the MME forecasting is qualitatively useful for issue of warning for the occurrence of floods, though it may not be reliable for the QPF. However, QPF may be improved using satellite and radar products.     

Soil liquefaction studies at Mumbai city

Mumbai city is the economical capital of India and is situated about midway on the western coast of stable continental region of Peninsular India. Major part of the city being of reclaimed land, the soil type is of alluvium, sand, and recent conglomerate. There are some bigger water bodies within the city range. In this study, an attempt has been made to study the susceptibility of soil liquefaction using simplified empirical procedure based on number of blow counts (N values) of the soil layers from standard penetration test. The liquefaction susceptibility is quantified in terms of factor of safety along the borehole depths at available borehole locations using earthquake-induced cyclic stress on the soil and the cyclic resistance of the soil to withstand the load. The factor of safety against liquefaction is evaluated at different sites for two peak ground acceleration (PGA) levels pertaining to 10 and 2?% probability of exceedance in 50?years corresponding to uniform hazard response spectra for Mumbai city with 475- and 2,475-year return period, respectively. Contour maps are prepared that display the factor of safety at different depths for earthquake magnitude of M _w 6.5. These contour maps show the liquefaction vulnerability at different sites in the city.     

A New Algorithm to Classify the Homogeneity of ERS-2 Wave Mode SAR Imagette

A new classification parameter is developed using 1535 ERS-2 wave mode synthetic aperture radar (SAR) test imagettes to better differentiate homogeneous and inhomogeneous imagettes. The comparison between the new parameter (Min) and the previous one (Inhomo) (Schulz-Stellenfleth and Lehner, 2004) was done under varied threshold values of Inhomo. It is concluded that the performance of ‘Min’ is much better than ‘Inhomo’ when applying to the 1535 test imagettes. Furthermore, both Min and Inhomo are applied to nearly 1 million imagettes collected for the period from 1 September 1998 to 30 November 2000. The comparisons of the global inhomogeneous distribution between ‘Min’ and ‘Inhomo’ reveal that both the areas and percentage of inhomogeneity calculated by ‘Min’ are larger than that calculated by ‘Inhomo’. By analyzing the low wind speed distribution of HOAPS data, we found that low wind speed over the ocean is one of the key reasons for the inhomogeneity of SAR imagettes.