Impacts of growth in resource use and human population on the Nechako River: A major tributary of the Fraser River, British Columbia, Canada

Hydroelectric development, forest exploitation, agricultural land use and related human population numbers have increased rapidly during the last 40 years, in the basin of the Nechako River, a major tributary system of the Fraser River. The Kemano project of the Aluminum Company of Canada Ltd. begun in 1950, was the largest industrial scheme in the area. A key feature of the first stage of it was a dam which diverted about 40% of flow of the south branch of the Nechako River, through a tunnel in the mountains, to the Pacific Ocean. In 1987 an agreement for the Kemano Completion Project (KCP), which would have diverted 87% of the flow, was signed. This final phase of the project would have put important fisheries resources of the upper Fraser River at high risk. Mitigation for fisheries protection were inadequate or untested in the system at the time. Potential cumulative impacts of water abstraction, elevated pollution levels, increased water temperature and natural sediment were not addressed. In January 1995 KCP was cancelled but there remain at present no adequate measures to protect the fish and the river ecosystem. These measures are to be negotiated in the future. Future management of the whole Kemano development must provide biologically realistic flow and temperature regimes in the Nechako River, and must deal with cumulative impacts of population and industrial growth. To achieve sustainability of fisheries in the Nechako River and upper Fraser watershed the present approach to the Kemano development must be changed fundamentally. The future of the Kemano development must be set in the context of the whole future of the upper Fraser system. Continued growth and development, as has occurred in the upper Fraser and total basin, can not go on without inimical changes to ecosystem conditions and loss of fisheries resources.     

Climate Suitability: For Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

As climate is one factor determining the potential range of malaria, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission is based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using sixteen projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas currently limited by precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

辽宁盖县梁屯—矿洞沟碱性正长岩杂岩体的U—Pb和Sm—Nd年龄及其地质意义

辽宁梁屯 -矿洞沟杂岩体主要由辉石正长岩、霓辉正长岩和霓辉角闪正长岩等碱性岩石组成 ,具有全岩 Rb- Sr等时线年龄 186 6± 115 Ma和 ISr=0 .70 4 9的同位素特征 ,是我国目前报道的最古老的碱性正长岩类。本文报道了该岩体的锆石U- Pb和全岩 Sm- Nd同位素测试资料 ,获得了锆石 U- Pb同位素年龄为 185 7± 2 0 Ma、Sm- Nd等时年龄为 1787± 180 Ma、εNd(t) =- 4 .8～ - 5 .0的数据。它们反映出该杂岩体形成年龄的上限为 185 7± 2 0 Ma、下限不小于 1787± 180 Ma,来源于富集地幔物质。基于这些数据并结合区域地质资料分析 ,作者提出了华北地台北缘古元古宙存在有富集地幔储库 ,以及辽河群主体形成于 190 0 Ma以前的认识     

In vitro screening for endocrine disruptive activity in selected South African harbours and river mouths

Various waterborne anthropogenic contaminants disrupt the endocrine systems of wildlife and humans, targeting reproductive pathways, among others. Very little is known, however, regarding the occurrence of endocrine disruptive activity in South African freshwater ecosystems, and coastal ecosystems have not been studied in this regard. In a first attempt to investigate endocrine disruptive activity in South African coastal waters, surface water samples collected from harbours, river mouths and estuaries in three metropolitan municipalities, eThekwini (which includes Durban), Nelson Mandela (specifically Port Elizabeth Harbour) and City of Cape Town, were screened for (anti) oestrogenicity and (anti)androgenicity using recombinant yeast bioassays. Moreover, levels of the female hormone 17β-(o)estradiol (E2) were determined in all samples, as well as a selection of hydrocarbons in the eThekwini samples. A high proportion of samples collected from eThekwini were oestrogenic, whereas none from Port Elizabeth Harbour and only a single river mouth sampled in the City of Cape Town were oestrogenic. E2 was detected in all the samples tested, but at higher concentrations at the eThekwini and City of Cape Town localities than Port Elizabeth Harbour. In addition, the recombinant yeast assays revealed that anti-androgenicity was widespread, being detected in the majority of samples screened apart from those representing Port Elizabeth Harbour. Conversely, no anti-oestrogenic or androgenic activity was detected. Anti-androgenicity did not associate with hydrocarbon loads, providing evidence that other anti-androgens were responsible for the observed activity. The present data suggest potential reproductive disruption in marine and estuarine fauna inhabiting the eThekwini and City of Cape Town regions.     

东天山伊吾二叠纪花岗质杂岩体的锆石定年、地球化学及其构造意义

伊吾花岗质杂岩体主要由二长花岗岩和碱长花岗岩构成。锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb定年分析得到二长花岗岩和碱长花岗岩的侵位年龄分别为284.6±1.4Ma和284.0±1.1Ma。结合地质证据,此年龄表明该杂岩体形成于碰撞之后的二叠纪早期挤压-伸展转折阶段。岩石学、地球化学和同位素等方面的对比研究表明这两种岩石为同一岩浆演化的产物。与二长花岗岩相比,碱长花岗岩表现为硅、碱的含量较高,而铝的含量较低;富Th、U、Nb、Ta,贫Sr、P、Ti、Sm;DI和Rb/Sr升高,Nb/Ta和Zr/Hf下降,从二长花岗岩到碱长花岗岩表现出连续分异演化的趋势。计算得到二长花岗岩和碱长花岗岩的模式年龄(t_(DM))分别为693Ma和763Ma,ε_(Nd)(t)分别为+4.53和+4.64,(~(87)Sr/~(86)Sr)_i分别为0.703858和0.703855,表现出高ε_(Nd)(t)低(~(87)Sr/~(86)Sr)_i的特征。这些特征表明,伊吾岩体的岩浆来自新元古代时从亏损地幔分离出来的初生地壳源区。二长花岗岩岩浆是这种初生地壳岩浆演化的产物,而碱长花岗岩形成于二长花岗岩母岩浆经斜长石、磷灰石、钛铁氧化物、榍石、独居石、褐帘石和锆石等矿物分离结晶后的残留岩浆。     

Active tectonic morphology and submarine deformation of the northern Gulf of Eilat/Aqaba from analyses of multibeam data

A high-resolution marine geophysical study was conducted during October-November 2006 in the northern Gulf of Aqaba/Eilat, providing the first multibeam imaging of the seafloor across the entire gulf head spanning both Israeli and Jordanian territorial waters. Analyses of the seafloor morphology show that the gulf head can be subdivided into the Eilat and Aqaba subbasins separated by the north-south-trending Ayla high. The Aqaba submarine basin appears starved of sediment supply, apparently causing erosion and a landward retreat of the shelf edge. Along the eastern border of this subbasin, the shelf is largely absent and its margin is influenced by the Aqaba Fault zone that forms a steep slope partially covered by sedimentary fan deltas from the adjacent ephemeral drainages. The Eilat subbasin, west of the Ayla high, receives a large amount of sediment derived from the extensive drainage basins of the Arava Valley (Wadi ’Arabah) and Yutim River to the north–northeast. These sediments and those entering from canyons on the south-western border of this subbasin are transported to the deep basin by turbidity currents and gravity slides, forming the Arava submarine fan. Large detached blocks and collapsed walls of submarine canyons and the western gulf margin indicate that mass wasting may be triggered by seismic activity. Seafloor lineaments defined by slope gradient analyses suggest that the Eilat Canyon and the boundaries of the Ayla high align along north- to northwest-striking fault systems—the Evrona Fault zone to the west and the Ayla Fault zone to the east. The shelf–slope break that lies along the 100 m isobath in the Eilat subbasin, and shallower (70–80 m isobaths) in the Aqaba subbasin, is offset by approx. 150 m along the eastern edge of the Ayla high. This offset might be the result of horizontal and vertical movements along what we call the Ayla Fault on the east side of the structure. Remnants of two marine terraces at 100 m and approx. 150 m water depths line the southwest margin of the gulf. These terraces are truncated by faulting along their northern end. Fossil coral reefs, which have a similar morphological appearance to the present-day, basin margin reefs, crop out along these deeper submarine terraces and along the shelf–slope break. One fossil reef is exposed on the shelf across the Ayla high at about 60–63 m water depth but is either covered or eroded in the adjacent subbasins. The offshore extension of the Evrona Fault offsets a fossil reef along the shelf and extends south of the canyon to linear fractures on the deep basin floor.     

Excitation of Sr ii lines in Eta Carinae

We study the nature of the peculiar [Sr  ii ] and Sr  ii emission filament found in the ejecta of Eta Carinae. To this purpose we carry out ab initio calculations of radiative transition probabilities and electron impact excitation rate coefficients for Sr  ii . Then we build a multilevel model for the system which is used to investigate the physical condition of the filament and the nature of the observed allowed and forbidden Sr  ii optical emission. It is found that the observed spectrum is consistent with the lines being pumped by the continuum radiation field in a mostly neutral region with electron density near 10⁷ cm⁻³. Under these conditions, the observed emission can be explained without the need for a large Sr overabundance.     

Climate Suitability for Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.     

Trend and Characteristics of Variation on the Runoff of the …

根据唐乃亥等有关台站的水文气象观测资料,对黄河上 唐乃亥以上流域的径注琢演变规律进行了分析探讨,并在此基础上用灰色拓扑、混合门限自回归及周期外延－逐步回归等数学模型对其未来的变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明,黄河上游唐乃亥以上流域径流目前正处于一个枯水段的底部,并且从现在超的今后若干年里将呈现一个波动状上升的变化趋势。