Coupled inverse modelling of groundwater flow and mass transport and the worth of concentration data

This paper presents the extension of the self-calibrating method to the coupled inverse modelling of groundwater flow and mass transport. The method generates equally likely solutions to the inverse problem that display the variability as observed in the field and are not affected by a linearisation of the state equations. Conditioning to the state variables is measured by an objective function including, among others, the mismatch between the simulated and measured concentrations. Conditioning is achieved by minimising the objective function by gradient-based methods. The gradient contains the partial derivatives of the objective function with respect to: log conductivities, log storativities, prescribed heads at boundaries, retardation coefficients and mass sources. The derivatives of the objective function with respect to log conductivity are the most cumbersome and need the most CPU-time to be evaluated. For this reason, to compute this derivative only advective transport is considered. The gradient is calculated by the adjoint-state method. The method is demonstrated in a controlled, synthetic study, in which the worth of concentration data is analysed. It is shown that concentration data are essential to improve transport predictions and also help to improve aquifer characterisation and flow predictions, especially in the upstream part of the aquifer, even in the case that a considerable amount of other experimental data like conductivities and heads are available. Besides, conditioning to concentration data reduces the ensemble variances of estimated transmissivity, hydraulic head and concentration.     

Intercomparison of Stratospheric Chemistry Models under Polar Vortex Conditions

Several stratospheric chemistry modules from box, 2-D or 3-D models, have been intercompared. The intercomparison was focused on the ozone loss and associated reactive species under the conditions found in the cold, wintertime Arctic and Antarctic vortices. Comparisons of both gas phase and heterogeneous chemistry modules show excellent agreement between the models under constrained conditions for photolysis and the microphysics of polar stratospheric clouds. While the mean integral ozone loss ranges from 4–80% for different 30–50 days long air parcel trajectories, the mean scatter of model results around these values is only about ±1.5%. In a case study, where the models employed their standard photolysis and microphysical schemes, the variation around the mean percentage ozone loss increases to about ±7%. This increased scatter of model results is mainly due to the different treatment of the PSC microphysics and heterogeneous chemistry in the models, whereby the most unrealistic assumptions about PSC processes consequently lead to the least representative ozone chemistry. Furthermore, for this case study the model results for the ozone mixing ratios at different altitudes were compared with a measured ozone profile to investigate the extent to which models reproduce the stratospheric ozone losses. It was found that mainly in the height range of strong ozone depletion all models underestimate the ozone loss by about a factor of two. This finding corroborates earlier studies and implies a general deficiency in our understanding of the stratospheric ozone loss chemistry rather than a specific problem related to a particular model simulation.     

Changes in the content and composition of pedogenic iron oxyhydroxides in a chronosequence of soils in southern California

Studies of the pedogenic iron oxyhydroxides in suites of latest Holocene to middle Pleistocene soils formed on fluvial deposits of the transverse ranges, southern California, indicate that the content and composition of iron oxyhydroxide change in a systematic manner. Analysis of total secondary free iron oxides (dithionite extractable, Fe₂O₃d) and ferrihydrite (oxalate extractable, Fe₂O₃o) shows that (1) a single-logarithmic model (Y = a + b log X) or double logarithmic model (log Y = a + b log X), where Y is the total mass of pedogenic Fe oxides (g/cm²-soil column) and X is soil age, describes the rate of increase in Fe₂O₃d with time; (2) the Fe₂O₃d content correlates linearly with soil reddening and clay content; (3) the $\text{Fe}{}_2\text{O}{}_3\text{o}\text{Fe}{}_2\text{O}{}_3\text{d}$ ratio, which indicates the degree of Fe oxide crystallinity, is moderately high to very high (0.22–0.58) in middle Holocene to latest Pleistocene soils and progressively decreases to less than 0.10 in older soils; (4) the value of the $\text{Fe}{}_2\text{O}{}_3\text{o}\text{Fe}{}_2\text{O}{}_3\text{d}$ ratio also appears to be infuenced by climate; and (5) temporal changes in Fe oxide content and mineralogy are accompanied by related, systematic changes in clay mineralogy and organic matter content. These relationships are attributed to a soil environment that must initially favor ferrihydrite precipitation and/or organic matter-Fe complexation. Subsequent transformation to hematite causes increasingly intense reddening and a concomitant decrease in the $\text{Fe}{}_2\text{O}{}_3\text{o}\text{Fe}{}_2\text{O}{}_3\text{d}$ ratio. The results demonstrate that iron oxide analysis is useful for numerical age studies of noncalcic soils and shows potential as an indicator of paleoclimates.     

Biodiversity conservation and pastoralism—reducing herd size in a communal livestock production system in Richtersveld National Park

Biodiversity is a critical component of the natural environment and the protection of it often meant the displacement of local communities in developing countries. The Richtersveld National Park (South Africa) is unusual in that it forms part of the Richtersveld communal rangeland and is currently managed for goat and sheep farming as well as biodiversity conservation under a contractual agreement. These two objectives are not regarded as mutually compatible and have created tension between conservation management officials and pastoralists. We set out to examine the consequences of reducing herd size in a communal livestock production system in support of biodiversity conservation in a protected area. Kidding, animal offtake (sales and slaughter), mortality and herd persistence showed no clear incentives for an individual pastoralist to reduce herd size. Reducing herd size is not considered a recommended intervention for the conservation of biodiversity or livelihood improvement of pastoralists in the park. The future of the natural resources of the national park is dependent on a delicate balance between the needs of the pastoralists and the conservation of those very same resources that the pastoralists use.     

A Climatology of Tropopause Folds by Global Analyses

Summary A global ECMWF data set comprising ten years of daily routine T63 analyses is employed for the derivation of regional and temporal tropopause fold statistics. Due to the small scale of folds relative to grid resolution it was found to be convenient to identify them by joint occurrences of potential vorticity maxima and upper tropospheric Q-vector divergences as indicators. The applicability of the proposed method is shown by diagnostic studies of episodic mesoscale model simulations, with 40–50 km resolution as a basis for reference and comparison with the global data set. Tropopause folds are a frequent and rather uniformly occurring phenomenon of the extratropics pole-ward of 30° latitude. On the global scale, and based on daily counting, there are about 11 000 tropopause fold days per year. In order to account for the different folding depth and intensity a four step classification is proposed to define a tropopause fold activity by weighted sums, in terms of four intensity classes. Tropopause fold activity in the Northern Hemisphere is nearly twice as high and less homogeneously distributed as in the Southern Hemisphere, where only 62% of the tropopause fold frequency is estimated. The frequency of tropopause folds is significantly smaller in the summer than in the other seasons. Received September 10, 1996 Revised June 24, 1997     

A mirage at Regina

The Dirt Hills, located roughly forty miles to the southwest of the Regina Weather Office, at Regina, Saskatchewan, were clearly visible on the horizon in the early morning of the 29th day of August 1972 from the Regina Weather Office. This mirage was documented and a picture of it was taken.     

Issues in characterizing heterogeneity and connectivity in non-multiGaussian media

The performances of kriging, stochastic simulations and sequential self-calibration inversion are assessed when characterizing a non-multiGaussian synthetic 2D braided channel aquifer. The comparison is based on a series of criteria such as the reproduction of the original reference transmissivity or head fields, but also in terms of accuracy of flow and transport (capture zone) forecasts when the flow conditions are modified. We observe that the errors remain large even for a dense data network. In addition some unexpected behaviours are observed when large transmissivity datasets are used. In particular, we observe an increase of the bias with the number of transmissivity data and an increasing uncertainty with the number of head data. This is interpreted as a consequence of the use of an inadequate multiGaussian stochastic model that is not able to reproduce the connectivity of the original field.     

Radiocarbon and Luminescence Age Determinations on Mounds at Crystal River and Roberts Island,Florida, USA

Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) has been employed successfully to determine the ages of palaeosols from earthen mounds in the southeastern USA, providing archaeologists with a means of dating monument construction in the absence of carbonaceous materials and geologists with a setting for understanding factors that can affect the luminescence intensity (i.e., burial dose) of soils. However, OSL dating has not been adequately tested on mounds whose principal component is sand, shell, or a combination of these two, despite the fact that monuments composed of such materials are common to the coasts and interior coastal plains of the region. Radiocarbon dating of bone collagen and soil‐carbon and OSL dating of quartz grains extracted from the fill of mounds at the Crystal River and Roberts Island sites on the west‐central coast of Florida, USA are used to determine the timing and history of mound construction at the sites. Comparison of OSL and radiocarbon ages on materials from the same or closely related contexts provides insight into factors influencing age determinations in mound fill deposits, particularly the type of construction material (sand or shell) and the manner in which these were deposited. The results contribute to the understanding of the temporal context of platform mound construction in southeastern USA.