不同损失条件下的泥石流预报模型

泥石流预报是泥石流减灾的重要手段之一，然而泥石流形成的复杂性使泥石流预报准确度低，误报和漏报率较高。泥石流误报和漏报都会造成损失，但二者造成的损失有很大的差别。为了减少泥石流误报或漏报造成的损失，应当考虑两种错报造成损失的不同。根据使总平均损失达到最小的原则，建立了不同损失条件下的泥石流预报模型，并将该模型应用到云南东川蒋家沟。     

海洋生态系统净生产力研究进展

海洋生态系统净生产力 （net ecosystem production，NEP） 表示总初级生产力 （gross primary production，GPP） 和呼吸作用 （respiration，R） 过程之间的差异，它对碳收支平衡、海洋生态系统营养状态乃至气候变化等研究具有十分重要的指示意义。影响海洋 NEP 的因素有细菌、浮游生物、温度、太阳辐射、海冰融化、水团迁移、富营养有机质排放以及海水酸化等。目前计算 NEP 的方法可分为实验培养测定及数据模型计算两种。溶解氧培养法及同位素标记法等是经典的培养测定方法，但存在误差较大且重现性较差等问题。数据模型计算即借助养分质量平衡、响应面模型、O2/Ar 示踪等方法，通过将现场实测数据和生物地球化学模型结合，进行高时间分辨率的连续性观测，这也是目前测算 NEP 的主流应用手段。然而，相较于发达国家，我国在 NEP 的研究设备、技术、测定方法等方面仍存在一定差距。今后的研究重点将是建立 NEP 指标与表征海洋环境、气候变化之间的耦合关系以及 NEP 测定方法的改进，这将有助于深入理解和探索全球变化背景下海洋生态系统响应机制及变化趋势。     

Histological bone structure of Lower Cretaceous dinosaurs from southwest Istria (Croatia)

Recently discovered dinosaur bones in submerged near-shore deposits of southwest Istria include one vertebra, one femur, and two rib fragments. They all show well-developed vascularization. The large amounts of primary bone tissue in the vertebral and femoral compacta as well as in one rib fragment suggest that they belong to sub-adult animals which were growing rapidly. The structure of a second rib fragment differs in that it consists of secondary bone. The absence of lines of arrested growth is evident in all investigated bones. This suggests a sustained manner of bone deposition.     

Enthalpies in (Na,Ca)- and (K,Ca)-feldspar binaries: a high-temperature solution calorimetric study

A series of high structural state plagioclases (Ab-An) was crystallized from glasses. By exchanging Na for K in KCl melts, metastable K-plagioclases (Or-An) were prepared which possess the same structural state as the starting plagioclases. Both series were investigated at 980 K by lead borate solution calorimetry. Continuing the ideas of Carpenter and McConnell (1984) and Carpenter (1992a), the results can be interpreted as follows. In the high plagioclase series, the enthalpies of solution, jH_sol, reflect the schemes of Al,Si ordering: (1) analbite-like (C2/m) ordering in the An-poor region 0hX_AnА.2, (2) high albite-like (C1¥) ordering in intermediate plagioclases, and (3) anorthite-like (I1¥) ordering in the An-rich region 0.7AnБ. In regions 1 and 2, jH_sol decreases as a function of X_An, but increases in region 3 as a consequence of the C1¥MI1¥ ordering reaction. Therefore, it is not a mixing effect but a compositionally restricted ordering effect which causes the excess enthalpies, jH^ex, to be positive in the plagioclase binary as a whole. Neglecting the existence of phase transitions at X_An=0.2 and X_An=0.7, jH^ex can be approximated by a two-parameter Margules model yielding W^H_AnAb=14Dž kJ/mol and W^H_AbAn=40Dž kJ/mol. jH_sol values of I1¥ plagioclases (X_An>0.7) can be "corrected" for the C1¥MI1¥ ordering effect (Carpenter 1992a). When combining the corrected values with the jH_sol data which were actually measured on the C1¥ plagioclases (X_An<0.7), negative excess enthalpies are generated in the plagioclase binary. This may be expected when C1¥ ordering occurs relative to topochemically monoclinic reference states of analbite and hypothetical anorthite devoid of I1¥ order. The solution experiments on the K-plagioclases resulted in similar characteristics as those found for the plagioclases. However, in addition to the ordering effects observed in the plagioclase binary, volume mismatch effects contribute to jH^ex in the K-plagioclase series. jH^ex can be represented by a Margules model with W^H_AnOr=60ᆞ kJ/mol and W^H_OrAn=91ᆢ kJ/mol when the phase transitions at X_An=0.2 and X_An=0.7 are again neglected. The contribution of the volume mismatch effect to jH^ex is considerable, as appears from the large difference between the K-plagioclase and the plagioclase Margules parameters. Their difference corresponds to a practically symmetrical dependence of jH^ex_volmism on composition, with W^H_volmism=48ᆡ kJ/mol.     

Line emission from accretion discs around black holes: the analytic approach

The broad X-ray iron line observed in many active galactic nuclei spectra is thought to originate from the accretion disc surrounding the putative supermassive black hole. We show here how to perform the analytical integration of the geodesic equations that describe the photon trajectories in the general case of a rotating black hole (Kerr metric), in order to write a fast and efficient numerical code for modelling emission line profiles from accretion discs.     

The peculiar case of the Agnia asteroid family

The Agnia asteroid family, a cluster of asteroids located near semimajor axis a=2.79 AU, has experienced significant dynamical evolution over its lifetime. The family, which was likely created by the breakup of a diameter D∼50 km parent body, is almost entirely contained within the high-order secular resonance z₁. This means that unlike other families, Agnia's full extent in proper eccentricity and inclination is a byproduct of the large-amplitude resonant oscillations produced by this resonance. Using numerical integration methods, we found that the spread in orbital angles observed among Agnia family members would have taken at least 40 Myr to create; this sets a lower limit on the family's age. To determine the upper bound on Agnia's age, we used a Monte Carlo model to track how the small members in the family evolve in semimajor axis by Yarkovsky thermal forces. Our results indicate the family is no more than 140 Myr old, with a best-fit age of 100⁺³⁰₋₂₀ Myr. Using two independent methods, we also determined that the D∼5 km fragments were ejected from the family-forming event at a velocity near 15 m/s. This velocity is consistent with results from numerical hydrocode simulations of asteroid impacts and observations of other similarly sized asteroid families. Finally, we found that 57% of known Agnia fragments were initially prograde rotators. The reason for this limited asymmetry is unknown, though we suspect it is a fluke produced by the stochastic nature of asteroid disruption events.     

Arsenic in contaminated soils and anthropogenic deposits at the Mokrsko,Roudný, and Kašperské Hory gold deposits,Bohemian Massif (CZ)

Soil, mine tailing, and waste dump profiles above three mesothermal gold deposits in the Bohemian Massif with different anthropogenic histories have been studied. Their mineralogical, major element, and arsenic (As) contents and the contents of secondary arsenic minerals were analyzed. The As-bearing minerals were concentrated and determined using X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis, the Debye-Scherrer powder method, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and energy-dispersive microanalysis (EDAX). The amorphous hydrous ferric oxides (HFO), As-bearing goethite, K-Ba- or Ca-Fe- and Fe- arsenates pharmacosiderite, arseniosiderite, and scorodite, and sulfate-arsenate pitticite were determined as products of arsenopyrite or arsenian pyrite oxidation. The As behaviour in the profiles studied differs in dependence on the surface morphology, chemical and mineralogical composition of the soil, mine wastes or tailings, oxidation conditions, pH, presence of (or distance from) primary As mineralization in the bedrock, and duration of the weathering effect. Although the primary As mineralization and the bedrock chemical composition are roughly similar, there are distinct differences in the As behaviour amongst the Mokrsko, Roudný and Kaperské Hory deposits.     

Physical and biological properties of the late Miocene, long-lived Turiec Basin, Western Carpathians (Slovakia) and its paleobiotopes

The Turiec Basin (TB) of Slovakia formed in the Miocene when the West Carpathians escaped from the Alpine region. The 1,250-m-thick sedimentary Neogene fill of the basin preserved fossil leaves as well as endemic bivalves, gastropods, and ostracodes. The paleolimnologic changes recorded in the TB infill were derived from the most abundant fossils, the ostracodes. Five contemporaneous ostracode assemblages within the Late Miocene lacustrine system were distinguished through statistical analysis. These assemblages have low species similarity, between 2.1 and 24.1%, and are recognized by shape differences among the Candoninae. The ostracode assemblages, mollusca fossils, and Sr-isotope ratios suggest a low-salinity environment at the beginning of the Late Miocene, during a brief connection with the Central Paratethys. When the connection ceased, the basin became an isolated freshwater lake, with five zones differentiated ecologically and bathymetrically using the ostracode assemblages. Taxonomic comparison of the faunas of the TB and the freshwater to brackish Neogene basins of Europe demonstrates the endemic character of the TB ostracode fauna. The biologic characteristics of the ostracode families, along with the geology of the lake basin, suggest that the longevity of the Late Miocene lake probably exceeded 1 Ma.     

Criteria for heat and cold wave duration indexes

Many areas of society are susceptible to the effects of extreme temperatures. Without an adequate definition of what constitutes heat and cold waves, it is impossible to assess either their changes in the past or their possible consequences for the future. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommended criteria for heat wave duration indexes based on two arbitrarily defined constants. The principal weakness of this approach is that it does not yield comparable results for different geographical locations. This paper remedies the current lack of a meteorologically based definition of heat and cold waves and offers a preliminary test of its performance. Having previously shown that maximum daily temperature values follow normal frequency distribution, we derive statistical thresholds (e.g., below and above normal) from that distribution. These thresholds are thus climate specific and their change can be compared across geographical locations. These criteria are then tested on the homogeneous time series of maximum daily temperature observed for the period 1961–2008 with respect to three different geographical locations. The results obtained show an increase in the frequency of heat waves for the period 1991–2008 in comparison with the normal climatological period 1961–1990.