Stochastic modelling of groundwater flow and solute transport in aquifers

This paper presents an introductory overview of recently developed stochastic theories for tackling spatial variability problems in predicting groundwater flow and solute transport. Advantages and limitations of the theories are discussed. Lastly, strategies based on the stochastic approaches to predict solute transport in aquifers are recommended.     

A high resolution,multiproxy Late‐glacial record of climate change and intrasystem responses in northwest England

A lacustrine carbonate sequence from Hawes Water, Lancashire, UK, has been studied using stable isotopic, lithological, pollen and mineral magnetic analysis. The data reveal four abrupt climatic oscillations in the Late‐glacial Interstadial leading up to the onset of the Loch Lomond Stadial. The data also point to climatic warming relatively early within the stadial, ca. 12 500 GRIP yr, prior to the onset of the Holocene. The oxygen isotope record is taken as a signature of climate forcing against which the response of the lake‐system can be monitored. By adopting this approach it is revealed that the response of the biological system to the rapid climatic oscillations is non‐linear and primarily a function of the antecedent conditions. A significant end‐Devensian isotopic excursion (A) is matched by only minor changes in the cold‐adapted floras and faunas. During the warmer interstadial, the response of the biological ecosystem (events B–D) is clearly influenced by thresholds: major changes in the catchment vegetation associated with relatively minor oscillations in the isotopic signature. The stratigraphical patterns reveal significant lag effects between the onset of climate deterioration and resulting changes in vegetation. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Diurnal photometric conditions at Teide observatory and long-term solar irradiance variations

Monochromatic extinction coefficients at four wavelengths have been obtained over a period of more than two years at the Observatorio del Teide (Izaña Tenerife) using a full disc, direct sunlight, quadruple photometer devoted to the detection of integral luminosity oscillations of the Sun. The mean extinction coefficients (0.13 at 500 nm) show a seasonal variation of about 15%, the best atmospheric conditions being in winter and autumn. Moreover, in anyone day the extinction coefficient in the afternoon is always lower than the one in the morning by 7%. A one-year period fluctuation, with an amplitude of 0.035 mag, has been identified in the instrumental magnitudes outside the atmosphere, and is interpreted as the variation produced by the different Sun-Earth distance from winter to summer. Finally, the study made to detect periodic time fluctuations in both, Sun's magnitude and extinction coefficients, has given null results at levels of 0.04 and 1.8%, respectively.     

The arsenic source term for an in-pit uranium mine tailings facility and its long-term impact on the regional groundwater

Detailed field sampling and analyses and laboratory-based diffusion-cell experiments were used in conjunction with 3-D reactive transport modeling (MODFLOW and MT3D99) to quantify the fate and long-term (10 ka) transport of As in the Rabbit Lake In-pit Tailings Management Facility (RLITMF), northern Saskatchewan, Canada. The RLITMF (300 m × 425 m × 90 m thick) was engineered to ensure solute transport within the RLITMF is dominated by diffusion. Concentrations of As in the tailings pore fluids ranged from 0.24 to 140 mg/L (n = 43). Arsenic speciation analyses indicate 90% of this arsenic exists as As⁵⁺. This observation is supported by pH–Eh measurements of pore fluids (n = 135). Geochemical analyses yielded a strong inverse correlation between the Fe/As molar ratio in the tailings solids and the corresponding concentration of dissolved As, which is attributed to the adsorption of As to secondary 2-line ferrihydrite present in the tailings. Diffusion-cell testing yielded values for the effective diffusion coefficient, sorption coefficient, and effective porosity of As in the tailings of 4.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ m²/s, 2–4 cm³/g and 0.36, respectively. Reactive transport simulations using the field and laboratory data show adsorption of As to the tailings and diffusive transport of dissolved As in the tailings should reduce the source term concentration of As to between 40% and 70% of the initial concentrations over the 10 ka simulation period. Based on these simulations, the As concentrations in the regional groundwater, 50 m down gradient of the tailings facility, should be maintained at background concentrations of 0.001 mg/L over the 10 ka period. These findings suggest the engineered in-pit disposal of U mine tailings can provide long-term protection for the local groundwater regime from As contamination.     

Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessment. A case study from the Ebro Valley evaporite alluvial karst (NE Spain)

Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessments in karst areas allow calculation of the potential sinkhole risk and the performance of cost-benefit analyses. These estimations are of practical interest for planning, engineering, and insurance purposes. The sinkhole hazard assessments should include two components: the probability of occurrence of sinkholes (sinkholes/km² year) and the severity of the sinkholes, which mainly refers to the subsidence mechanisms (progressive passive bending or catastrophic collapse) and the size of the sinkholes at the time of formation; a critical engineering design parameter. This requires the compilation of an exhaustive database on recent sinkholes, including information on the: (1) location, (2) chronology (precise date or age range), (3) size, and (4) subsidence mechanisms and rate. This work presents a hazard assessment from an alluvial evaporite karst area (0.81 km²) located in the periphery of the city of Zaragoza (Ebro River valley, NE Spain). Five sinkholes and four locations with features attributable to karstic subsidence where identified in an initial investigation phase providing a preliminary probability of occurrence of 0.14 sinkholes/km² year (11.34% in annual probability). A trenching program conducted in a subsequent investigation phase allowed us to rule out the four probable sinkholes, reducing the probability of occurrence to 0.079 sinkholes/km² year (6.4% in annual probability). The information on the severity indicates that collapse sinkholes 10–15 m in diameter may occur in the area. A detailed study of the deposits and deformational structures exposed by trenching in one of the sinkholes allowed us to infer a modern collapse sinkhole approximately 12 m in diameter and with a vertical throw of 8 m. This collapse structure is superimposed on a subsidence sinkhole around 80 m across that records at least 1.7 m of synsedimentary subsidence. Trenching, in combination with dating techniques, is proposed as a useful methodology to elucidate the origin of depressions with uncertain diagnosis and to gather practical information with predictive utility about particular sinkholes in alluvial karst settings: precise location, subsidence mechanisms and magnitude, and timing and rate of the subsidence episodes.     

Unusual large-scale phytoplankton blooms in the equatorial Pacific

Unusual large-scale accumulations of phytoplankton occurred across 10,000 km of the equatorial Pacific during the 1998 transition from El Niño to La Niña. The forcing and dynamics of these phytoplankton blooms were studied using satellite-based observations of sea surface height, temperature and chlorophyll, and mooring-based observations of winds, hydrography and ocean currents. During the bloom period, the thermocline (nutricline) was anomalously shallow across the equatorial Pacific. The relative importance of processes that enhanced nutrient flux into the euphotic zone differed between the western and eastern regions of the blooms. In the western bloom region, the important vertical processes were turbulent vertical mixing and wind-driven upwelling. In contrast, the important processes in the eastern bloom region were wave-forced shoaling of nutrient source waters directly into the euphotic zone, along-isopycnal upwelling, and wind-driven upwelling. Advection by the Equatorial Undercurrent spread the largest bloom 4500 km east of where it began, and advection by meridional currents of tropical instability waves transported the bloom hundreds of kilometers north and south of the equator. Many processes influenced the intricate development of these massive biological events. Diverse observations and novel analysis methods of this work advance the conceptual framework for understanding the complex dynamics and ecology of the equatorial Pacific.