Statistical Analysis of Storm-time TEC Variation during Ascending and Descending Solar Periods of 24th Solar Cycle

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - This paper presents a statistical analysis of global ionospheric variation during quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions from December 2008 to June 2019. The study...     

Measuring the accessibility of critical facilities in the presence of hurricane-related roadway closures and an approach for predicting future roadway disruptions

Natural Hazards - Roadway closures magnify the adverse effects of disasters on people since any type of such disruption increases the emergency response travel time (ERTT), which is of central...     

判定潜在震源的模式识别方法的改进

本文给出了在非均匀网格划分的情况下,利用改进的连续Hamming方法判定潜在震源的方法和计算过程。实际计算结果表明,用此方法计算,避免了由于潜在震源形状和空间参数分配所带来的一些问题,更适用于各种形状的构造和各种形状的网格。     

聚类分析在地震场地小区划中的应用

场地地震小区划是地震小区划中重要的一环,是震害预测的基础和编制地震防灾规划的重要依据。本文用多维实测数据类似性和差异性相对识别的ISODATA聚类方法,对城市小区域场地进行了聚类分析,用数据表示了每类场地的危险程度,用计算机实现了聚类过程,从而代替了人工识别过程,使分类具有持久的客观性、可重复性和一致性。本文对天水市北道区场地进行聚类分析,结果是较理想的。     

Assessment of the hurricane-induced power outages from a demographic,socioeconomic, and transportation perspective

Natural disasters have devastating effects on the infrastructure and disrupt every aspect of daily life in the regions they hit. To alleviate problems caused by these disasters, first an impact assessment is needed. As such, this paper focuses on a two-step methodology to identify the impact of Hurricane Hermine on the City of Tallahassee, the capital of Florida. The regional and socioeconomic variations in the Hermine’s impact were studied via spatially and statistically analyzing power outages. First step includes a spatial analysis to illustrate the magnitude of customers affected by power outages together with a clustering analysis. This step aims to determine whether the customers affected from outages are clustered or not. Second step involves a Bayesian spatial autoregressive model in order to identify the effects of several demographic-, socioeconomic-, and transportation-related variables on the magnitude of customers affected by power outages. Results showed that customers affected by outages are spatially clustered at particular regions rather than being dispersed. This indicates the need to pinpoint such vulnerable locations and develop strategies to reduce hurricane-induced disruptions. Furthermore, the increase in the magnitude of affected customers was found to be associated with several variables such as the power network and total generated trips as well as the demographic factors. The information gained from the findings of this study can assist emergency officials in identifying critical and/or less resilient regions, and determining those demographic and socioeconomic groups which were relatively more affected by the consequences of hurricanes than others.     

甘肃中强震前地磁“低点位移”现象研究

利用甘肃及邻近地区地磁垂直分量日变化极小值时间(低点时间)资料,分析了1995～2003年地磁"低点时间"在空间分布上的异常特征,即地磁"低点位移"现象,发现地磁"低点位移"现象除了有其自身的变化规律外,还与该区中强震的发生存在较好的相关性.1995～2003年的9年间,甘肃省中强震前均出现地磁"低点位移"现象.这表明地磁"低点位移"对该区地震的短临预测预报有一定的参考价值.     

2002年12月14日甘肃省玉门市5.9级地震概述

2002年12月14日，甘肃省玉门市发生5．9级地震，这是继2001年7月11日肃南5．3级地震后，在祁连山西段发生的又一次破坏性地震。极震区烈度为Ⅶ度，地震造成灾害损失达7000万人民币。文章对该震的基本参数、震源机制、地震序列、地震背景、震害损失评估及地震应急等作了概述。     

关于坝体震害预测的研究

本文在“嘉峪关市地震危险性分析”工作的基础上，以大草滩水库土石坝为例，研究了坝体震害预测的方法。用动力非线性有限元法计算并分析了坝体的非线性动力特性，给出了５０年超越概率为１０％和２％两种风险水平下，坝体表面可能出现的拉裂区域和坝体内可能出现的塑性破坏区域，并给出了有代表性的一些地点的加速度时程和动剪应力时程。本文还用拟静力法对坝体的整体稳定性进行了分析计算，给出上述两种风险水平下，在可能遇到的各种情况下，坝体的整体安全可靠性能。     

Modelling of the hydro-mechanical response of sedimentary rocks of southern Ontario to past glaciations

Glaciation is considered as one of the main natural processes that can have a significant impact on the long term performance of a deep geological nuclear waste repository (DGR) located in the Northern Hemisphere. The northern part of the American continent has been subjected to a series of strong glaciation and deglaciation events over the past million years. The last glacial cycle in the Northern Hemisphere started approximately 110,000 year ago. During that cycle, southern Ontario was buried under a continental ice sheet, with a maximum thickness of up to 3000 m at about 20,000 years ago. The ice cap retreated approximately 10,000 years ago. However, field data from deep boreholes in sedimentary rocks of southern Ontario show anomalous pore water pressure including underpressure and overpressure zones. In this paper, a large-scale coupled hydro-mechanical (HM) model is developed to investigate the hydro-mechanical (HM) response of the sedimentary rocks of southern Ontario to past glacial cycles. Particular emphasis has been placed on the evolution of pore water pressures and surface displacements. The HM model is verified using analytical solutions. The results of the large-scale HM modeling study shows that the past glaciation, particularly the second cycle (22,000 apb) had significant impact on the pore water pressure gradient and effective stress distribution in the sedimentary rocks of southern Ontario. Furthermore, good agreement between the large scale modeling results and anomalous pressures leads us to the conclusion that these anomalies could be glacially induced. The results of this research can provide information that will contribute to a better understanding of the impact of future glaciations on the long term performance of DRGs in sedimentary rocks.