Evaluating Lost Person Behavior Models

US wilderness search and rescue consumes thousands of person‐hours and millions of dollars annually. Timeliness is critical: the probability of success decreases substantially after 24 hours. Although over 90% of searches are quickly resolved by standard “reflex” tasks, the remainder require and reward intensive planning. Planning begins with a probability map showing where the lost person is likely to be found. The MapScore project described here provides a way to evaluate probability maps using actual historical searches. In this work we generated probability maps the Euclidean distance tables in (Koester 2008 ), and using Doke's ( 2012 ) watershed model. Watershed boundaries follow high terrain and may better reflect actual barriers to travel. We also created a third model using the joint distribution using Euclidean and watershed features. On a metric where random maps score 0 and perfect maps score 1, the Euclidean distance model scored 0.78 (95%CI: 0.74–0.82, on 376 cases). The simple watershed model by itself was clearly inferior at 0.61, but the Combined model was slightly better at 0.81 (95%CI: 0.77–0.84).     

White dwarfs: Recent developments

Summary. During the last decade white dwarfs have become important as tools in many areas beyond traditional stellar physics: from the age determination of the stars in the solar neighborhood to the dating of open clusters and the distance determination of globular clusters. They are primary candidates for the MACHO microlensing events, possibly for a stellar component of the dark halo, and for the supernova Ia progenitors. The recent developments in these areas are reviewed, but some highlights from more “mature” areas such as stellar parameters, mass distributions, magnetic, and pulsating white dwarfs are also summarized briefly. Received 5 October 2001 / Published online 11 January 2002     

Carbon pricing in practice: a review of existing emissions trading systems

This article analyses the implementation of emissions trading systems (ETSs) in eight jurisdictions: the EU, Switzerland, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) and California in the US, Québec in Canada, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea and pilot schemes in China. The article clarifies what is working, what isn’t and why, when it comes to the practice of implementing an ETS. The eight ETSs are evaluated against five main criteria: environmental effectiveness, economic efficiency, market management, revenue management and stakeholder engagement. Within each of these categories, ETS attributes ? including abatement cost, stringency of the cap, improved allocation practices over time and the trajectory of price stability ? are assessed for each system. Institutional learning, administrative prudence, appropriate carbon revenue management and stakeholder engagement are identified as key ingredients for successful ETS regimes. Recent implementation of ETSs in regions including California, Québec and South Korea indicates significant institutional learning from prior systems, especially the EU ETS, with these regions implementing more robust administrative and regulatory structures suitable for handling unique national and sub-national opportunities and constraints. The analysis also shows that there is potential for a ‘double dividend’ in emissions reductions even with a modest carbon price, provided the cap tightens over time and a portion of the auctioned revenues are reinvested in other emissions-reduction activities. Knowledge gaps exist in understanding the interaction of pricing instruments with other climate policy instruments and how governments manage these policies to achieve optimum emissions reductions with lower administrative costs.

Key policy insights

• Countries are learning from each other on ETS implementation.

• Administrative and regulatory structures of ETS jurisdictions appear to evolve and become more robust in every ETS analysed.

• A ‘double dividend’ for emissions reductions may also exist in cases where mitigation occurs as a result of the ETS policy and when auction revenues are reinvested in other emissions-reduction activities.

     

Invisible homelessness: anonymity,exposure, and the right to the city

The city of Denver, Colorado recently outlawed camping in all open space. Part of a broad effort to accelerate the profit potential of prime urban land through real estate speculation and commerce, the camping ban has dislocated homeless people from the city’s marginal spaces. Based on ethnographic fieldwork and archival research in Denver, this article develops a tripartite approach to public space—prime, everyday, and marginal—to analyze challenging ways in which people who are homeless in Denver must now manage their exposure to others in everyday public spaces. In addition to eliminating places of hard-won safety and security, this singular new code disrupts hygiene, mobility, and sociability routines, thus throwing already precarious lives into further disarray by rendering housing status visible. To demonstrate how everyday social justice springs from interaction between different people co-present in public space, we foreground the voices of Denver’s homeless people, those most impacted by quality of life laws. Evicting individuals from marginal spaces and rendering them visibly homeless in everyday and prime spaces, the ban deprives them of a fundamental right to the city: anonymity.     

Andean subduction-related mantle xenoliths: Isotopic evidence of Sr–Nd decoupling during metasomatism

Sr–Nd isotopic analyses on some mantle xenolith samples from the Northern, Southern and Austral Andean volcanic zones exhibit radiogenic Sr enrichment without dramatic changing of the Nd isotopic composition. This anomalous effect (Sr–Nd decoupling) makes these samples plot displaced to the right side of the “mantle array” trend (here called the “MORB–OIB–BSE trend”) in the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr vs. ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd isotopic diagram. Such behavior reflects processes that took place in the mantle and can be related to: i) the mixture of a depleted mantle and an enriched source (enriched mantle II—EMII); ii) the mixture of a depleted mantle and a mixture of mantle-derived and slab-derived melts; and iii) a chromatographic process that occurs during the percolation of a metasomatic agent through the mantle.     

Sm–Nd isotopic investigation of Neoproterozoic and Cretaceous igneous rocks from southern Brazil: A study of magmatic processes

Nd-evolutionary paths for diversified igneous suites from southern Brazil are here re-evaluated using published results. We interpret the ε_Nd paths considering the secondary fractionation of ¹⁴⁷Sm/¹⁴⁴Nd due to major petrogenetic processes. The inclusion of Nd isotopes and geochemical data for Precambrian and Mesozoic basic rocks allow improving the discussion on the subcontinental lithosphere beneath southern Brazil. Late Neoproterozoic rocks, mostly granitoids, are exposed in two regions of the southern Brazilian shield, an eastern collisional belt and a western foreland. The latter included two geotectonic domains amalgamated at this time, the São Gabriel Arc (900–700 Ma), and the Taquarembó cratonic block. Magma genesis mainly involved mixture of crustal and incompatible-element-enriched mantle components, both with a long residence time. Continental segments are the Neoarchaean–Paleoproterozoic lower crust (ca. 2.55 Ga) in the western foreland, and Paleoproterozoic–Neoproterozoic recycled crust (2.1–0.8 Ga) in the collisional belt. Granitoids with a single crustal derivation are limited in the southern Brazilian Shield. Mixing processes are well-registered in the western foreland, where the re-enriched old mantle was probably mixed with a 900–700 Ma-old subducted lithosphere and a 2.55 Ga-old lower crust. The contribution of the latter increased from the early 605–580 Ma to the later 575–550 Ma Neoproterozoic events, which may be due either to crustal thickening or to delamination of the lithosphere. Magma sources were diversified in the 660–630 Ma collisional belt. Initially, they involved the mixing between two components with similar Nd isotopic ratios, a 2.1–0.8 Ga-old recycled crust and a subduction-processed old mantle. Regional heating and abundant production of granitic melts, with diversified contribution of enriched mantle components, mark the end of the collisional period, at 630–580 Ma. We can also attribute this to the delamination of the lithosphere, so that the same geodynamic process may explain the magmatism in the whole shield at the end of the Dom Feliciano Orogeny. Mesozoic rocks include flood basalts from the Cretaceous Paraná Province and sub-coeval alkalic suites. Multiple processes of metasomatism affected the lithospheric mantle, resulting in some complexity but they mainly register two enriched-mantle components, both generated during Neoarchaean–Paleoproterozoic events. One end-member has a more pronounced subduction signature. The other one probably resulted from the re-enrichment of the first component at the end of the Camboriú collisional orogeny (2.0 Ga).     

The mass of the neutron star in the binary millisecond pulsar PSR J 1012 + 5307

We have measured the radial velocity variation of the white dwarf secondary in the binary system containing the millisecond pulsar PSR J 1012 + 5307. Combined with the orbital parameters of the radio pulsar, we infer a mass ratio q (≡ M ₁/ M ₂) = 10.5 ± 0.5. Our optical spectroscopy has also allowed us to determine the mass of the white dwarf companion by fitting the spectrum to a grid of DA model atmospheres: we estimate M ₂ = 0.16 ± 0.02 M⊙, and hence the mass of the neutron star is 1.64 ± 0.22 M⊙, where the error is dominated by that of M ₂. The orbital inclination is 52 ± 4°. For an initial neutron star mass of ∼ 1.4 M⊙, only a few tenths of a solar mass at most has been successfully accreted over the lifetime of the progenitor low-mass X-ray binary. If the initial mass of the secondary was ∼ 1 M⊙, our result suggests that the mass transfer may have been non-conservative.     

Geochemistry of the Neoproterozoic (800–767 Ma) Cerro Bori orthogneisses, Dom Feliciano Belt in Uruguay: tectonic evolution of an ancient continental arc

The Cerro Bori orthogneisses, crystallized between ca. 800 and 767 Ma, are composed of a sequence of mafic gneisses, with dioritic-gabbroic and dioritic composition tectonically interleaved with a sequence of tonalitic and granodioritic gneisses. These rocks intruded the Chafalote paragneisses (metapelites, semipelites, carbonate and mafic rocks) and they were metamorphosed of high P-T conditions at ca. 676–654 Ma. This paper presents the first major and trace geochemical signatures, as well as Sm and Pb isotopic composition for the Cerro Bori orthogneisses, which allow distinguishing three different groups of rocks. Type I rocks are mafic gneisses with tholeiitic affinity, whereas the Type II rocks are tonalitic and granodioritic gneisses with calc-alkaline affinity. The third type is composed of biotite-rich mafic gneisses with potassic and ultrapotassic affinities. All the three types of rocks have negative ?_ND values (between ?2.12 and ?6.67) and old T_DM ages (between 1.2 and 2.0 Ga), indicating that the process of crustal assimilation/contamination was an important process, together with fractional crystallization. An continental arc tectonic setting is suggested to this association of rocks between 800 and 767 Ma. This subduction suggests the existence of an ocean between Rio de La Plata and adjacent cratons during the break up of the Rodinia supercontinent.