Climate change, sea level rise and rice: global market implications

Climate change will influence yields while sea level rise can inundate producing lands. The research reported investigates the individual and simultaneous effects of these factors on production, trade and consumption of rice the world’s number one food crop. A global rice trade model is utilized to do this. The results indicate that the combination of yield and sea level effects causes a significant reduction in production and an increase in rice prices which may have important policy implications for food security. Global rice production is reduced by 1.60% to 2.73% while global rice price increases by 7.14% to 12.77%. Sea level rise is particularly a risk factor in Bangladesh, Japan, Taiwan, Egypt, Myanmar and Vietnam. In the face of such developments, adaptation may well be desirable and thus an investigation is done over adaptation options of increased technical progress or trade liberalization with the results showing that both can mitigate such damages.     

An integrated flood risk assessment model for property insurance industry in Taiwan

Taiwan is located in an area affected by Northwest Pacific typhoons, which are also one of the most important sources of rainfall to the island. Unfortunately, the abundant rainfall brought by typhoons frequently produces hazards. In recent years, typhoons and floods have caused serious damage, especially Typhoon Morakot in 2009. In this study, a probabilistic model is developed based on historical events which can be used to assess flood risk in Taiwan. There are 4 separate modules in this model, including a rainfall event module, a hydraulic module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Local data obtained from the Taiwan government are used to construct this model. Historical rainfall data for typhoon and flood events that have occurred since 1960, obtained from the Central Weather Bureau, are used for computing the maximum daily rainfall for each basin. In addition, the latest flood maps from the Water Resources Agency are collected to assess the probable inundation depth. A case study using the local data is carried out. Assessment is made to predict possible economic loss from different financial perspectives such as the total loss, insured loss, and loss exceeding probabilities. The assessment results can be used as a reference for making effective flood risk management strategies in Taiwan.     

Estimating the economic impacts of climate change on infectious diseases: a case study on dengue fever in Taiwan

Researchers of climate change have suggested that climate change and variability has a significant influence on the epidemiology of infectious diseases, particularly vector-borne diseases. The purpose of this study is to explore how climate conditions and the dengue fever epidemic in Taiwan are related and to estimate the economic impact of climate change on infectious diseases. To achieve these objectives, two different methods, one involving the Panel data model and the other the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM), are applied in this study. At first, we use the Panel data model to assess the relationship between climate conditions and the number of people infected by dengue fever during the period from January 2000 to February 2006 in 308 cities and townships in the Taiwan. The results of the empirical estimation indicate that climate conditions have an increasingly significant impact on the probability of people being infected by dengue fever. The probability of being infected by dengue fever due to climate change is then calculated and is found to range from 12% to 43% to 87% which represent low, mid, and high probabilities of infection caused by climate change when the temperature is increased by 1.8°C. The respondent’s willingness to pay (WTP) is also investigated in the survey using the single-bounded dichotomous choice (SBDC) approach, and the results show that people would pay NT$724, NT$3,223 and NT$5,114 per year in order to avoid the increased probabilities of 12%, 43%, and 87%, respectively, of their being infected with dengue fever.