Climate change in the 21st century simulated by HadGEM2-AO under representative concentration pathways

We present climate responses of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the coupled climate model HadGEM2-AO for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The RCPs are selected as standard scenarios for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and these scenarios include time paths for emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gas and aerosols and land-use/land cover. The global average warming and precipitation increases for the last 20 years of the 21st century relative to the period 1986-2005 are +1.1°C/+2.1% for RCP2.6, +2.4°C/+4.0% for RCP4.5, +2.5°C/+3.3% for RCP6.0 and +4.1°C/+4.6% for RCP8.5, respectively. The climate response on RCP 2.6 scenario meets the UN Copenhagen Accord to limit global warming within two degrees at the end of 21st century, the mitigation effect is about 3°C between RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The projected precipitation changes over the 21st century are expected to increase in tropical regions and at high latitudes, and decrease in subtropical regions associated with projected poleward expansions of the Hadley cell. Total soil moisture change is projected to decrease in northern hemisphere high latitudes and increase in central Africa and Asia whereas near-surface soil moisture tends to decrease in most areas according to the warming and evaporation increase. The trend and magnitude of future climate extremes are also projected to increase in proportion to radiative forcing of RCPs. For RCP 8.5, at the end of the summer season the Arctic is projected to be free of sea ice.     

Deep‐water dunes on drowned isolated carbonate terraces (Mozambique Channel,south‐west Indian Ocean)

Subaqueous sand dunes are common bedforms on continental shelves dominated by tidal and geostrophic currents. However, much less is known about sand dunes in deep‐marine settings that are affected by strong bottom currents. In this study, dune fields were identified on drowned isolated carbonate platforms in the Mozambique Channel (south‐west Indian Ocean). The acquired data include multibeam bathymetry, multi‐channel high‐resolution seismic reflection data, sea floor imagery, a sediment sample and current measurements from a moored current meter and hull‐mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler. The dunes are located at water depths ranging from 200 to 600 m on the slope terraces of a modern atoll (Bassas da India Atoll) and within small depressions formed during tectonic deformation of drowned carbonate platforms (Sakalaves Seamount and Jaguar Bank). Dunes are composed of bioclastic medium size sand, and are large to very large, with wavelengths of 40 to 350 m and heights of 0·9 to 9·0 m. Dune migration seems to be unidirectional in each dune field, suggesting a continuous import and export of bioclastic sand, with little sand being recycled. Oceanic currents are very intense in the Mozambique Channel and may be able to erode submerged carbonates, generating carbonate sand at great depths. A mooring located at 463 m water depth on the Hall Bank (30 km west of the Jaguar Bank) showed vigorous bottom currents, with mean speeds of 14 cm sec^?1 and maximum speeds of 57 cm sec^?1, compatible with sand dune formation. The intensity of currents is highly variable and is related to tidal processes (high‐frequency variability) and to anticyclonic eddies near the seamounts (low‐frequency variability). This study contributes to a better understanding of the formation of dunes in deep‐marine settings and provides valuable information about carbonate preservation after drowning, and the impact of bottom currents on sediment distribution and sea floor morphology.     

Reconstruction of the recent history of a large deep prealpine lake (Lake Bourget,France) using subfossil chironomids,diatoms, and organic matter analysis: towards the definition of a lake-specific reference state

This paper presents the recent history of a large prealpine lake (Lake Bourget) using chironomids, diatoms and organic matter analysis, and deals with the ability of paleolimnological approach to define an ecological reference state for the lake in the sense of the European Framework Directive. The study at low resolution of subfossil chironomids in a 4-m-long core shows the remarkable stability over the last 2.5 kyrs of the profundal community dominated by a Micropsectra-association until the beginning of the twentieth century, when oxyphilous taxa disappeared. Focusing on this key recent period, a high resolution and multiproxy study of two short cores reveals a progressive evolution of the lake’s ecological state. Until AD 1880, Lake Bourget showed low organic matter content in the deep sediments (TOC less than 1%) and a well-oxygenated hypolimnion that allowed the development of a profundal oxyphilous chironomid fauna (Micropsectra-association). Diatom communities were characteristic of oligotrophic conditions. Around AD 1880, a slight increase in the TOC was the first sign of changes in lake conditions. This was followed by a first limited decline in oligotrophic diatom taxa and the disappearance of two oxyphilous chironomid taxa at the beginning of the twentieth century. The 1940s were a major turning point in recent lake history. Diatom assemblages and accumulation of well preserved planktonic organic matter in the sediment provide evidence of strong eutrophication. The absence of profundal chironomid communities reveals permanent hypolimnetic anoxia. From AD 1995 to 2006, the diatom assemblages suggest a reduction in nutrients, and a return to mesotrophic conditions, a result of improved wastewater management. However, no change in hypolimnion benthic conditions has been shown by either the organic matter or the subfossil chironomid profundal community. Our results emphasize the relevance of the paleolimnological approach for the assessment of reference conditions for modern lakes. Before AD 1900, the profundal Micropsectra-association and the Cyclotella dominated diatom community can be considered as the Lake Bourget reference community, which reflects the reference ecological state of the lake.     

The Gambia River estuary: A reference point for estuarine fish assemblages studies in West Africa

The Gambia River is one of the last aquatic ecosystems in West Africa that has not yet been affected by strong environmental changes and human disturbances. In contrast to the neighbouring Casamance and Sine Saloum estuaries, the Gambia estuary is free of major climatic perturbation and remains a “normal” estuary, with a salinity range from freshwater to 39. The present paper aims to study the spatial and seasonal variability of fish assemblages in this estuary in terms of bio-ecological categories and of their relation with some environmental variables. Four surveys were conducted, from June 2001 to April 2002, in order to cover the major hydroclimatic events, at 44 sampling sites along the lower, intermediate and upper zones of the Gambia estuary (up to 220 km). Fish assemblages were sampled using a purse seine net, fish were identified to species level and environmental variables such as water depth, transparency, salinity, temperature and percentage oxygen saturation were measured. The main spatial structure of the fish assemblages and its seasonal changes were first studied using the STATIS-CoA multitable method. The combination of fish assemblages and environmental variables was then analysed using the STATICO method, designed for the simultaneous analysis of paired ecological tables. A total of 67 species were observed, belonging to all bio-ecological categories characterizing West African estuaries. The marine component of the community was largely dominant throughout the estuary, while the freshwater component was permanently observed only in the upstream zone. The main spatial structure was a longitudinal gradient contrasting marine and freshwater affinity assemblages, with strong seasonal variations. The most complete gradient was observed in December, at the beginning of the dry and cool season, while in June, at the end of the dry and warm season, there was the least structured gradient. The role of salinity, always correlated with temperature, was emphasized, while turbidity appeared to be another important factor. Oxygen and depth did not play a major role at the estuary scale. The relative importance of the bio-ecological categories varied according to the season and the distance to sea. Stable fish assemblages were observed in the lower zone at the end of the dry season, in the upper zone during the flood and in the middle zone throughout the year. In some situations, a relative inadequacy between fish assemblages and their environment was noticed. The present study contributes to the definition of the functioning of a “normal” West African estuary, the Gambia estuary, with balanced effects of marine and freshwater influences and the presence of all bio-ecological categories. The Gambia estuary can therefore be considered to be a reference ecosystem for further comparisons with other tropical estuarine ecosystems, subjected to natural or artificial perturbations.     

Sedimentological and geochemical records of past trophic state and hypolimnetic anoxia in large,hard-water Lake Bourget,French Alps

Sedimentological, geochemical and particle-size analyses were used to reconstruct the evolution of both trophic state and hypolimnetic anoxia in Lake Bourget (French Alps) during the last century. Radionuclide dating (²¹⁰Pb, ¹³⁷Cs and ²⁴¹Am) confirmed the annual rhythm of laminations in the upper sediment profile. In Lake Bourget, biochemical varves are triplets composed of a diatom layer (spring lamina), a bio-precipitated calcite-rich layer (spring/summer lamina), and a layer rich in organic matter and detrital particles (winter lamina). The onset of eutrophication and the first appearance of an anoxic facies occurred simultaneously and were dated by laminae counting to AD 1943±1 year. Persistent anoxic conditions began in AD 1960. Eutrophication is characterised by drastic increases in the flux of biogenic silica (mostly diatoms), lacustrine organic matter, and larger calcite crystals (15–30 μm). The increase of organic matter also represents a marker of the onset of anoxic conditions in the hypolimnion. Our results show that eutrophication was the main factor controlling anoxia in the hypolimnion. This eutrophication was caused mostly by the inflow of untreated sewage effluents, and to a lesser extent, by input of fertilizer-derived phosphorus during floods of the Rhone River and run-off from the lake catchment. The Rhone River, however, can also be a source of re-oxygenation via underflows that originate during flood events. Oxygenation of the hypolimnion is also controlled by low winter temperatures, which enable turnover of the lake. Thus, global warming, associated with a forecasted reduction in precipitation, might reduce the efficiency of hypolimnetic re-oxygenation in Lake Bourget.     

Frequency and intensity of high-altitude floods over the last 3.5 ka in northwestern French Alps (Lake Anterne)

In central Western Europe, several studies have shown that colder Holocene periods, such as the Little Ice Age, also correspond to wet periods. However, in mountain areas which are highly sensitive to erosion processes and where precipitation events can be localized, past evolution of hydrological activity might be more complicated. To assess these past hydrological changes, a paleolimnological approach was applied on a 13.4-m-long sediment core taken in alpine Lake Anterne (2063 m asl) and representing the last 3.5 ka. Lake sedimentation is mainly composed of flood deposits triggered by precipitation events. Sedimentological and geochemical analyses show that floods were more frequent during cold periods while high-intensity flood events occurred preferentially during warmer periods. In mild temperature conditions, both flood patterns are present. This underlines the complex relationship between flood hazards and climatic change in mountain areas. During the warmer and/or dryer times of the end of Iron Age and the Roman Period, both the frequency and intensity of floods increased. This is interpreted as an effect of human-induced clearing for grazing activities and reveals that anthropogenic interferences must be taken into account when reconstructing climatic signals from natural archives.     

Variations of Indian and African monsoons induced by insolation changes at 6 and 9.5 kyr BP

This study investigates the role of insolation in controlling the Indian and African monsoon evolutions during the Holocene using coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations of 0, 6, 9.5 kyr BP climates, for which only the variations of Earth’s orbital configuration are considered. The two monsoon systems are enhanced at 6 and 9.5 kyr BP, compared to 0 kyr BP, as a result of the intensified seasonal cycle of insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. The analysis of daily climatologies indicates that even though the length of the “celestial” summer season is shorter at 9.5 kyr BP, the rainy season is longer than at present. Emphasis is put on the impact of the precession on the seasonality, which partly explains why the relative amplification of the Indian and African monsoon varies between 9.5 and 6 kyr BP. Moreover, the changes in snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau play a critical role in reinforcing the 9.5 kyr BP monsoon in India during spring. The results suggest that the teleconnection between convection over India and subsidence over the Mediterranean regions, through the Rodwell and Hoskins mechanism, has an impact on the development of the African monsoon at 9.5 kyr BP.     

Does global warming favour the occurrence of extreme floods in European Alps? First evidences from a NW Alps proglacial lake sediment record

Flood hazard is expected to increase in the context of global warming. However, long time-series of climate and gauge data at high-elevation are too sparse to assess reliably the rate of recurrence of such events in mountain areas. Here paleolimnological techniques were used to assess the evolution of frequency and magnitude of flash flood events in the North-western European Alps since the Little Ice Age (LIA). The aim was to document a possible effect of the post-19^th century global warming on torrential floods frequency and magnitude. Altogether 56 flood deposits were detected from grain size and geochemical measurements performed on gravity cores taken in the proglacial Lake Blanc (2170?m?a.s.l., Belledonne Massif, NW French Alps). The age model relies on radiometric dating (¹³⁷Cs and ²⁴¹Am), historic lead contamination and the correlation of major flood- and earthquake-triggered deposits, with recognized occurrences in historical written archives. The resulting flood calendar spans the last ca 270?years (AD 1740–AD 2007). The magnitude of flood events was inferred from the accumulated sediment mass per flood event and compared with reconstructed or homogenized datasets of precipitation, temperature and glacier variations. Whereas the decennial flood frequency seems to be independent of seasonal precipitation, a relationship with summer temperature fluctuations can be observed at decadal timescales. Most of the extreme flood events took place since the beginning of the 20^th century with the strongest occurring in 2005. Our record thus suggests climate warming is favouring the occurrence of high magnitude torrential flood events in high-altitude catchments.     

Relative impacts of insolation changes, meltwater fluxes and ice sheets on African and Asian monsoons during the Holocene

In order to better understand the evolution of the Afro-Asian monsoon in the early Holocene, we investigate the impact on boreal summer monsoon characteristics of (1) a freshwater flux in the North Atlantic from the surrounding melting ice sheets and (2) a remnant ice sheet over North America and Europe. Sensitivity experiments run with the IPSL_CM4 model show that both the meltwater flux and the remnant ice sheets induce a cooling of similar amplitude of the North Atlantic leading to a southward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone over the tropical Atlantic and to a reduction of the African monsoon. The two perturbations have different impacts in the Asian sector. The meltwater flux results in a weakening of the Indian monsoon and no change in the East Asian monsoon, whereas the remnant ice sheets induce a strengthening of the Indian monsoon and a strong weakening of the East Asian monsoon. Despite the similar coolings in the Atlantic Ocean, the ocean heat transport is reduced only in the meltwater flux experiment, which induces slight differences between the two experiments in the role of the surface latent heat flux in the tropical energetics. In the meltwater experiment, the southward shift of the subtropical jet acts to cool the upper atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau and hence to weaken the Indian monsoon. In the ice sheet experiment this effect is overwhelmed by the changes in extratropical stationary waves induced by the ice sheets, which are associated with a larger cooling over the Eurasian continent than in the meltwater experiment. However these sensitivity experiments suggest that insolation is the dominant factor explaining the relative changes of the African, Indian and East Asian monsoons from the early to the mid-Holocene.     

Native antimony emplaced by methane‐rich hydrothermal fluid in an orogenic fault‐zone

Antimony‐rich gold deposits represent a subclass of orogenic hydrothermal systems. The study of the Lapa gold deposit in the Abitibi greenstone belt shows that antimony occurs during two different stages: (1) as early prograde Sb–Ni disseminated sulphides in talc schists, associated with CO₂‐bearing fluids, and (2) as a late native antimony association, associated with methane‐bearing fluids indicating a reducing environment. Methane could be related to the serpentinization of the ultramafic rocks of the Piché Group hosting the Lapa deposit. Several deposits display the same methane antimony association along fault zones.