Verification of two hydrological models for real-time flood forecasting in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region

Natural Hazards - The Hindu Kush Himalayan region is extremely susceptible to periodic monsoon floods. Early warning systems with the ability to predict floods in advance can benefit tens of...     

Temporal variation in properties of an uncropped,ploughed Miamian soil in relation to seasonal erodibility

Knowledge of seasonal variation in soil structural and related properties is important for the determination of critical periods during which soil is susceptible to accelerated erosion and other degradative processes. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the magnitude of seasonal variations in selected soil and deposited sediment properties in relation to soil erodibility for a Miamian silt-loam soil (Typic Hapludalf) in central Ohio. Erosion plots (USLE-type) were established on a 4·5% slope and maintained under bare, ploughed conditions from 1988 to 1991. Particle size distribution, bulk density(ρ_b), percentage water stable aggregates (WSA), soil organic carbon (SOC), and total soil nitrogen (TSN) of both soil and sediment samples were monitored between Autumn 1989 and Spring 1991. The soil and sediment particle size distributions followed no clear seasonal trends. Soil ρ_b increased following tillage (1·20 Mg m⁻³) and was highest (1·45 Mg m⁻³) during the autumn owing to soil slumping and consolidation upon drying. Low winter and spring values of ρ_b and %WSA (20–50% lower than in autumn) were attributed to excessive wetness and freeze–thaw effects. Both SOC and soil TSN contents progressively declined (from 2·18 to 1·79% and 1·97 to 1·75 g kg⁻¹, respectively) after ploughing owing to maintenance of plots under bare, fallow conditions. Spring highs and autumn lows of sediment SOC (3·12 vs. 2·44%) and TSN (2·70 vs. 1·96 g kg⁻¹) contents were a result of the combined effects of soil microbial activity and rainfall erosivity. Soil properties such as bulk density, SOC and WSA, which vary seasonally, can potentially serve as predictors of seasonal soil erodibility, which, in turn, could improve the predictive capacity of soil erosion prediction models. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Isotope mixing models require individual isotopic tracer content for correct quantification of sediment source contributions

The use of isotopic tracers for sediment source apportionment is gaining interest with recent introduction of compound‐specific stable isotope tracers. The method relies on linear mixing of source isotopic tracers, and deconvolution of a sediment mixture initially quantifies the contribution of sources to the mixture's tracer signature. Therefore, a correction to obtain real sediment source proportions is subsequently required. As far as we are aware, all published studies to date have used total isotopic tracer content or a proxy (e.g., soil carbon content) for this post‐unmixing correction. However, as the relationship between the isotopic tracer mixture and the source mixture is different for each isotopic tracer, post‐unmixing corrections cannot be carried out with one single factor. This contribution presents an isotopic tracer model structure—the concentration‐dependent isotope mixing model (CD‐IMM)—to overcome this limitation. Herein, we aim to clarify why the “conventional” approach to converting isotopic tracer proportions to source proportions using a single factor is wrong. In an initial mathematical assessment, error incurred by not using CD‐IMM (NCD‐IMM) in unmixing two sources with two isotopic tracers showed a complex relation as a function of relative tracer contents. Next, three artificial mixtures with different proportions of three soil sources were prepared and deconvoluted using ¹³C of fatty acids using CD‐IMM and NCD‐IMM. Using NCD‐IMM affected both accuracy (mean average error increased up to a threefold compared with the CD‐IMM output) and precision (interquartile range was up to 2.5 times larger). Finally, as an illustrative example, the proportional source contribution reported in a published study was recalculated using CD‐IMM. This resulted in changes in estimated source proportions and associated uncertainties. Content of isotopic tracers is seldom reported in published work concerning use of isotopic tracers for sediment source partitioning. The magnitude of errors made by miscalculation in former studies is therefore difficult to assess. With this contribution, we hope the community will acknowledge the limitations of prior approaches and use a CD‐IMM in future studies.     

Validation of the Satellite-Derived Rainfall Estimates over the Tibet

Measuring rainfall from space appears to be the only cost effective and viable means in estimating regional precipitation over the Tibet, and the satellite rainfall products are essential to hydrological and agricultural modeling. A long-standing problem in the meteorological and hydrological studies is that there is only a sparse raingauge network representing the spatial distribution of precipitation and its quantity on small scales over the Tibet. Therefore, satellite derived quantitative precipitation estimates are extremely useful for obtaining rainfall patterns that can be used by hydrological models to produce forecasts of river discharge and to delineate the flood hazard area. In this paper, validation of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) RFE (rainfall estimate) 2.0 data was made by using daily rainfall observations at 11 weather stations over different climate zones from southeast to northwest of the Tibet during the rainy season from 1 June to 30 September 2005 and 2006. Analysis on the time series of daily rainfall of RFE-CPC and observed data in different climate zones reveals that the mean correlation coefficients between satellite estimated and observed rainfall is 0.74. Only at Pali and Nielamu stations located in the southern brink of the Tibet along the Himalayan Mountains, are the correlation coefficients less than 0.62. In addition, continuous validations show that the RFE performed well in different climate zones, with considerably low mean error (ME) and root mean square error (RMSE) scores except at Nielamu station along the Himalayan range. Likewise, for the dichotomous validation, at most stations over the Tibet, the probability of detection (POD) values is above 73% while the false alarm rate (FAR) is between 1% and 12%. Overall, NOAA CPC RFE 2.0 products performed well in the estimation and monitoring of rainfall over the Tibet and can be used to analyze the precipitation pattern, produce discharge forecast, and delineate the flood hazard area.     

Land use effects on soil crusting and hydraulic response of surface crusts on a tropical Alfisol

Soil surface crusting, a common phenomenon on cultivated soils, has major implications for agriculture and the environment because of its effects on soil hydrological properties, erosion and crop establishment. The objectives of this study were to evaluate land use controls on crust formation and the hydraulic response of soils to crust development for a Patancheru series soil (clayey skeletal, mixed, isohyperthermic Udic Rhodustalf) in south‐central India. Soil aggregates, obtained from cultivated (PL) and naturally vegetated fallow (NV) land, were packed into sample trays and subjected to laboratory rain simulation to form crusts. Thin sections and visual observation indicated that crust development reached a more advanced stage in the PL case compared with NV following 90 min of rain at 40–80 mm h⁻¹ intensity. This was reflected in a thicker crust layer with fewer voids in the former and a less smooth surface with partially disintegrated aggregates in the latter. The hydraulic response of the soil surface with the progression of crust development indicated a more permeable and less dense crust formed on NV than on PL soil. The results suggested that NV soil aggregates were more stable and that crust formation is more gradual for stable aggregates compared with the less stable PL aggregates. A structural crust‐type formed on the Patancheru soil by means of parallel subprocesses involving translocation and illuviation of aggregate disruption by products, and raindrop compaction and particle rearrangement. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Crusting effects on erosion processes under simulated rainfall on a tropical Alfisol

Sealing and crusting of soil surfaces have dramatic effects on water infiltration into and runoff from soils, thereby greatly influencing erosion processes. This study focused on the effect of the initial stage of crusting on inter-rill erosion processes for a crust-prone Alfisol sampled from south-central India. Soil aggregates ranging from 2·4 to 8 mm collected from ploughed (PL) and naturally vegetated (NV) treatments were subjected to rainfall simulation under laboratory conditions. Runoff from PL soil aggregates was 2–2·5 times higher, while percolation was 20–100% lower, than for NV aggregates. Soil wash and splash losses were 0·5–3 times greater for PL than for NV soil. Runoff and inter-rill erosion were significantly higher during the wet simulation run compared with the dry run. The results indicated that NV soil aggregates were more resistant to breakdown from raindrop impact and slaking, and subject to less rapid sealing, than PL soil. Total soil loss was influenced most by initial aggregate stability and the extent of seal development. Splash and wash losses of soil both increased as a result of surface sealing regardless of soil condition for short (30–60 min) rainfall durations. High drying rates resulted in the highest crust bulk densities. Increased crust strength for PL soil compared with NV soil reflected the greater susceptibility of cultivated soil to surface sealing and crusting. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Narrowing gaps between research and policy development in climate change adaptation work in the water resources and agriculture sectors of Cambodia

Narrowing research and policy, while challenging, is especially important in climate change adaptation work (CCA) due to the high uncertainties involved in planning for climate change. This article aims to seek stakeholders’ opinions regarding how research and policy development can be bridged within the Cambodian water resources and agriculture sectors. The study used institutional ethnography methods with informants from government organizations, local academia, and development partners (DPs). This article identifies a number of challenges, and barriers for narrowing research–policy development gaps, including: limited effectiveness of governmental policies and planning; lack of relevant information required to promote evidence-based planning and policy development; and communication barriers. Evidence-based planning is valued by government officials most when there is actual and effective implementation of policies and plans. In practice, this often implies that governmental policies and plans need be scoped and scaled down to meet the available budget, and thus be achievable. In the long term, it also means building the capacity for policy-relevant research on climate change adaptation within Cambodia. Engaging policy stakeholders in research process for co-producing adaptation knowledge, and introducing knowledge intermediaries are suggested by informants as means to narrowing gaps between research and policy development. The presence of the Cambodia's Prime Minister in research–policy dialogues is recommended as important for attracting the attention of high-level policy makers.

Policy relevance

As a least developed and highly climate-vulnerable country, Cambodia has received climate change funding to implement a number of climate adaptation initiatives. Cambodia is likely to receive more climate change finance in the future. This article aims to assist evidence-based planning, in particular, through policy-relevant research on CCA, so that resources for adaptation in Cambodia are used effectively and efficiently. This research also directly benefits the sustainable development of the country.