ENSO and IOD analysis on the occurrence of floods in Pakistan

Different techniques have been used to discuss the existence of significant relation between the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Various studies present their interaction and influence on the natural disasters (i.e. drought, flood, etc.) over large parts of the globe. This study uses a Markov chain method to investigate the relation between the ENSO and IOD for the period of 62 years (1950–2011) and aggregates their influence on the occurrence of floods in Pakistan. Both data sets show similarities in the formation of transition matrices and expected number of visits from one state to another. The strong values of 2-dimensional correlation and high self-communication of the transition states confirm the existence of a possible relation between ENSO and IOD data. Moreover, significant values of dependency and stationary test endorse the applicability of the Markov chain analyses. The independent analysis shows that strong events of both data sets are co-occurred in the same flood years. During the study period maximum number of floods was observed during summer monsoon season. However, further analysis shows that after 1970, Pakistan observed the highest percentage of floods occurred per year during El Nino, Non-ENSO and positive IOD years. These observations and results demonstrate that climate variability especially ENSO and IOD should be incorporated into disaster risk analyses and policies in Pakistan.     

Indices based assessment of built-up density and urban expansion of fast growing Surat city using multi-temporal Landsat data sets

GeoJournal - The population growth in urban areas leads to the expansion of built-up area which leads to a number of serious problems like environmental pollution, destruction of urban ecology,...     

An empirical relation for parameter mi in the Hoek–Brown criterion of anisotropic intact rocks with consideration of the minor principal stress and stress-to-weak-plane angle

Acta Geotechnica - The parameter mi accounts for the anisotropy of rock strength, and the accurate determination of mi is a primary requirement of the Hoek–Brown (H–B) strength...     

Thermal regime of the northwest Indian rifted margin – Comparison with predictions

We use a simple approach to estimate the present-day thermal regime along the northwestern part of the Western Indian Passive Margin, offshore Pakistan. A compilation of bottom borehole temperatures and geothermal gradients derived from new observations of bottom-simulating reflections (BSRs) allows us to constrain the relationship between the thermal regime and the known tectonic and sedimentary framework along this margin. Effects of basin and crustal structure on the estimation of thermal gradients and heat flow are discussed. A hydrate system is located within the sedimentary deep marine setting and compared to other provinces on other continental margins. We calculate the potential radiogenic contribution to the surface heat flow along a profile across the margin. Measurements across the continental shelf show intermediate thermal gradients of 38–44 °C/km. The onshore Indus Basin shows a lower range of values spanning 18–31 °C/km. The Indus Fan slope and continental rise show an increasing gradient from 37 to 55 °C/km, with higher values associated with the thick depocenter. The gradient drops to 33 °C/km along the Somnath Ridge, which is a syn-rift volcanic construct located in a landward position relative to the latest spreading center around the Cretaceous–Paleogene transition.     

Calculation of periodic roof weighting interval in longwall mining using finite element method

The state of periodic loading and the interval of periodic roof weighting have an important role in geomechanical stability and, hence, in the continuity of longwall mining operations. In this paper, the mechanism of roof caving in longwall mining—together with the effect of engineering and geomechanical properties of surrounding rock masses on the magnitude and timing of periodic loading—is studied. For this purpose, a longwall mine is first modeled using Phase2 software, and then, by simulating the roof caving process, the periodic roof weighting intervals is calculated. Based on the numerical modeling, the first roof weighting interval and the periodic roof weighting interval are calculated as 27.2 and 12.1 m, respectively. Sensitivity analysis is then applied to determine the effect of changes in the mechanical properties of the rock mass, especially in the main roof and immediate roof. The results of the analysis show that as GSI and quality of the immediate roof increases, the periodic roof weighting interval also increases. Hence, the applied algorithm in this research study can effectively be utilized to calculate the periodic roof weighting interval in the longwall mining method.     

On rising temperature trends of Karachi in Pakistan

Karachi is the largest city of Pakistan. The temperature change in Karachi is studied in this research by analyzing the time series data of mean maximum temperature (MMxT), mean minimum temperature (MMiT) and mean annual temperature (MAT) from 1947 to 2005 (59 years). Data is analyzed in three parts by running linear regression and by taking anomalies of all time periods: (a) whole period from 1947–2005; (b) phase one 1947–1975 and (c) phase two 1976–2005. During 1947 to 2005 MMxT has increased about 4.6°C, MMiT has no change and MAT has increased 2.25°C. During 1947–1975, MMxT increased 1.9°C, in this period there is − 1.3°C decrease in MMiT and MAT has raised upto 0.3°C. During 1976–2005, the MMxT, MMiT and MAT increased 2.7°C, 1.2°C and 1.95°C, respectively. The analysis shows significantly the role of extreme vulnerability of MMxT in rising the temperature of Karachi than the MMiT.