Earthquake—Affected Time—Space Domain,Recurrence Interval and Effective Preparation Time of Earthquakes

The study shows that earthquake-affected time-space domain(ETSD),i.e.a time-space range in which strong earthquakes are unable to occur owing to the influence of a prior earthquake occurring,shows a hyperbolic margin curve in the t(time)-r(distance)coordinate plane,which has a maximum affected radius r0 at t=0 and a maximum influence time t0(i.e.the insitu recurrence interval of earthquakes)at r=0.Based on the time-distance distributions of posterior earthquakes relative to pror ones in the regions of North China,Northwest China,Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet)plateau and Southwest China,the optimized and 90%-confidence margin curves are estimated using optimization and statistical analysis methods.This indicates that the concept and method of ETSD with 3-dimension(time-distance-magnitudes)instead of those of “recurrence interval “with 1-dimension(time)or 2-dimension(time-magnitude) provides a new approach to understanding the fluctuation of seismic activities,estimating the effective earthquake-preparation time of potential hypocenters,and therefore improving the mediumand long-term prediction of strong earthquakes.