Estimation of flow enhancement in the Kinneret watershed due to cloud seeding

A comparison is carried out between historical records of the flow measured in Kinneret watershed during and prior to the time of cloud seeding for rainfall enhancement. Precipitation series for the control area of the meteorological experimentation serve as a reference for the comparison. The fluctuations of the flow, which would have occurred unless the effect of the seeding, are estimated by a linear regression on the precipitation as the control. The regression parameters are calibrated separately for the unseeded and for the seeded time series. The model with the parameters calibrated for the unseeded series is applied on the rainfall recorded during the seeded time, and vice versa. The difference between the measured and the computed data is attributed to the effect of cloud seeding. Similar comparisons are carried out with respect to rainfall series recorded at the target area and at the edge of the enhanced area.The results indicate that the flow from the affected sector of the watershed has been enhanced, with respect to the control, by 31×10⁶ m ³/year, at a significance level of 31. This enhancement is 5% of the volume which is generated in that area. The rates found with respect to the rainfall at the edge are higher than those found with respect to the control, while those with respect to the rainfall at the center of the target area are lower.     

Evolution of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of air pollutants at global and regional scales during the 1980�C2010 period

Several different inventories of global and regional anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions are assessed for the 1980?C2010 period. The species considered in this study are carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and black carbon. The inventories considered include the ACCMIP historical emissions developed in support of the simulations for the IPCC AR5 assessment. Emissions for 2005 and 2010 from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are also included. Large discrepancies between the global and regional emissions are identified, which shows that there is still no consensus on the best estimates for surface emissions of atmospheric compounds. At the global scale, anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO_x and SO₂ show the best agreement for most years, although agreement does not necessarily mean that uncertainty is low. The agreement is low for BC emissions, particularly in the period prior to 2000. The best consensus is for NO_x emissions for all periods and all regions, except for China, where emissions in 1980 and 1990 need to be better defined. Emissions of CO need better quantification in the USA and India for all periods; in Central Europe, the evolution of emissions during the past two decades needs to be better determined. The agreement between the different SO₂ emissions datasets is rather good for the USA, but better quantification is needed elsewhere, particularly for Central Europe, India and China. The comparisons performed in this study show that the use of RCP8.5 for the extension of the ACCMIP inventory beyond 2000 is reasonable, until more global or regional estimates become available. Concerning biomass burning emissions, most inventories agree within 50?C80%, depending on the year and season. The large differences between biomass burning inventories are due to differences in the estimates of burned areas from the different available products, as well as in the amount of biomass burned.     

Observed advantage for negative binomial over Poisson distribution in partial duration series

The goodness of fit of the negative binomial and the Poisson distributions to partial duration series of runoff events is tested. The data have been recorded by eight hydrometric stations located on ephemeral rivers in Isreal. For each station, a number of threshold discharges are considered, by that series of nested subsamples are formed. Owing to size limitations, a Chi-square test is conducted on samples associated with low to moderate threshold discharges. Positive results, at a 5% significance level, are obtained in 30 out of the 53 tests of the Poisson distribution, and in 22 out of the 28 tests of the negative binomial distribution. The fit of the Poisson distribution to samples of conventionally recommended sizes (of 2 to 3 events per year) is found positive for five rivers and negative for the three other rivers The fit of the negative binomial distribution to these samples is found positive for six rivers, inconclusive for one river and short of data for the eighth river. Mixed results are obtained as the threshold level is raised. Therefore, no direct extrapolation is possible to samples associated with high thresholds.An indirect extrapolation is drawn through a comparison of the actual properties of the samples with those expected under a perfect fit of the distribution functions. Ranges of such properties are defined with respect to the properties of the tested samples and to the test results. The actual properties of nine of the eleven samples associated with high thresholds (i.e. mean number of events <-0.1year ^–1) are found within these ranges. This provides a hint for a probable good fit of either distribution, and particularly the negative binomial, to the occurrence frequency of high events.     

Laboratory examination of linearity in rainfall–runoff relationships

ABSTRACT

Certain rainfall–runoff models, e.g. the unit hydrograph, assume linear relationships between the variables. These are proportionality of runoff discharges to (net) rainfall depth and linear summations of discharges resulting from (net) rainfalls during different time intervals or over different sectors of a watershed. This study examines the validity of these assumptions by use of an extensive two-dimensional laboratory experimentation. The results indicate that proportionality would be found under high rainfall intensity through a long duration. Spatial summations would more likely yield correct discharges in cases where rainfall duration is equal to, or is longer than, the time of concentration. Temporal summations may yield correct discharges when rainfall duration is longer than one half of the time of concentration. Here, the time of concentration is determined at the beginning of gradual approach of the discharge towards the equilibrium state.     

Direct relationships of discharges to the mean and standard deviation of the intervals between their exceedences

Abstract

This article paves a way for assessing flood risk by the use of two-parameter distributions, for the intervals between threshold exceedences rather than by the traditional exponential distribution. In a case study, the apparent properties of intervals between exceedences of runoff events differ from those anticipated for exponentially distributed series. A procedure is proposed to relate two statistical parameters of the intervals to threshold discharges. It considers partial duration series (PDS) with thresholds equal to all high enough observed discharges. To avoid unnecessary assumptions on the behaviour of those parameters and effects of dependence between parameters for different PDS, a non-parametric trend-free pre-whitened scheme is applied. It leads to power-law relationships between a discharge and the mean and standard deviation of the intervals between its exceedences. Predicted mean inter-exceedence intervals, for the highest observed discharges at the stations, are closer to the observational periods than those predicted by GEV distributions fitted to AMS, and by GP distributions to fitted PDS. In the present case, the latter predictions are longer than the observational periods whereas some of the predicted mean inter-exceedences are shorter than the corresponding observational periods and some others are longer.

Citation Ben-Zvi, A. & Azmon, B. (2010) Direct relationships of discharges to the mean and standard deviation of the intervals between their exceedences. Hydrol. Sci J. 55(4), 565–577.     

The P-wave velocity structure of Deception Island,Antarctica, from two-dimensional seismic tomography

Deception Island is a volcanic island with a flooded caldera that has a complex geological setting in Bransfield Strait, Antarctica. We use P-wave arrivals recorded on land and seafloor seismometers from airgun shots within the caldera and around the island to invert for the P-wave velocity structure along two orthogonal profiles. The results show that there is a sharp increase in velocity to the north of the caldera which coincides with a regional normal fault that defines the northwestern boundary of the Bransfield Strait backarc basin. There is a low-velocity region beneath the caldera extending from the seafloor to > 4 km depth with a maximum negative anomaly of 1 km/s. Refracted arrivals are consistent with a 1.2-km-thick layer of low-velocity sediments and pyroclastites infilling the caldera. Synthetic inversions show that this layer accounts for only a small portion of the velocity anomaly, implying that there is a significant region of low velocities at greater depths. Further synthetic inversions and melt fraction calculations are consistent with, but do not require, the presence of an extensive magma chamber beneath the caldera that extends downwards from ≤ 2 km depth.     

Maximal discharges observed in Israel

Maximal discharges observed in Israel since 1938 are plotted on a log-log paper against the catchment area of the measuring sites. Four envelope lines, parallel to one another, are drawn on the paper. The formula of these lines is Q=c A^0.83, in which Q is the maximal observed discharge, in m³/sec, A is the catchment area, in km², and c is an empirical coefficient, in m³/sec km^1.65. The value of c varies from 1.7 to 4.5 units, depending on the precipitation and the lithology of the watershed. Higher discharges are observed where the mean annual depth of the precipitation is lower. With respect to the lithological units found in Israel, the highest discharges are observed where the lithology is of thin deposited limestone and the surface slopes are steep. The lowest maximal discharges are observed where the lithology is heavy deposited limestone and dolomite, or conglomerates. No high discharges are observed from watersheds where the lithology is Holocenean sand. In general, impervious, steeply sloped surfaces generate higher discharges than pervious or mildly sloped surfaces.     

Comment on “Reassessment of rain experiments and operations in Israel including synoptic considerations” by Zev Levin,Noam Halfon and Pinhas Alpert [Atmos. Res. 97 (2010) 513–525]

Levin et al. (referred here as LHA) made a sweeping conclusion that cloud seeding has been ineffective in Israel. They claimed that the results of the Israel-2 experiment could be fully ascribed to synoptic bias. However, the cross over analysis of Israel-2 has shown the same already in 1990 by Gabriel and Rosenfeld. While LHA only showed differences in the 850 hPa winds being stronger in the north seeded days of Israeli-2, Rosenfeld and Farbstein had already shown quantitatively in 1992 that this synoptic bias explains less than half of the indicated seeding effect in the north. Furthermore, accepting that a cross over design protects against synoptic bias means that the highly positive and statistically significant indicated seeding effect in Israeli-1, which was based on a cross-over design, cannot be explained by such synoptic bias. Instead, LHA completely ignored the Israeli-1 experiment.LHA's evaluation of the operational seeding used implied assumption that amounted to historical comparisons that have already been shown to be invalid, especially for the Israeli situation due to the decreasing trend of target–control ratio, especially over the eastern upper Galilee. For all of the above reasons, the conclusion of LHA that cloud seeding is ineffective in Israel is not supported by the data.Given the uncertainties, both physical and statistical, the Israeli water authority has embarked on the Israeli-4 randomized cloud seeding experiment, which is aimed at testing the hypothesis that cloud seeding might be affecting mainly the precipitation in the orographic clouds developing over the hills in the catchment of the Jordan River.