Changes in annual temperature extremes in the Carpathians since AD 1961

The Carpathian Mountains region cover areas from seven countries of central and southeastern Europe, the mountain chain having major regional influences on the temperate climate, specific to latitudes between 43°N and 49°N. In order to identify changes in the annual temperature extremes, the Mann–Kendall nonparametric trend test has been applied to several thermal indices, recommended by the expert team on climate change detection and indices. The indices were computed from gridded daily datasets of minimum and maximum temperature at 0.1° resolution (~10 km), available online within the framework of the project CarpatClim (climate of the Carpathian region) for the period 1961–2010. The results show decreasing trends in cold-related indices, especially in the number of frost days, and increasing trends in warm-related ones. The trend patterns are consistent over the region, i.e., there are no mixed trends for a given index. Regional differences in climate extreme trends within the Carpathian region are related to altitude, rather than latitude. The number of summer days is increasing over the entire area, while the number of tropical nights presents upward trends mainly at lower elevations. The Warm Spell Duration Index presents upward trends over 60 % of the region. The (annual) East Atlantic pattern shows strong correlations with the warm-related indices. Our results are in agreement with previous temperature-related studies in the region.     

The influence of climate on gravitational processes within the Jiu river valley: G.I.S. applications

The dynamics of gravitational processes (e.g. landslides) is altered due to variation in climatic parameters. We have recorded an increasing number of such events which affect human settlements. The most important aspect that has to be emphasized is the way gravitational processes change and condition land utilization. Due to these circumstances, the analysis of these processes has great importance within the middle sector of the Jiu Valley. In order to correlate the occurrence of gravitational processes with climatic data, we have been collecting data within this valley sector during the last 15 years. The aim of this study is to describe the succession and dynamics of present processes, which should act as an alarm signal for local authorities to take adequate mitigating measures. We observe an increase in the mean annual temperature and the mean amplitude (by approximately 1?C), in addition to the frequency and severity of dry years (1992, 2000), and the frequency of rain showers. We correlate these data with knowledge of the lithology, morphometry, and piezometric levels in order to identify areas with a high potential for gravitational processes using a Geographical Information System (G.I.S.). This analysis allows us to draw a map rendering each layer separately — lithology, pedology, slope, vegetation etc. We present a map that emphasizes the areas with high potential for the development of gravitational processes in the region of the Jiu valley.     

Using experimental data to reduce the single-building sigma of fragility curves: case study of the BRD tower in Bucharest, Romania

The lack of knowledge concerning modelling existing buildings leads to significant variability in fragility curves for single or grouped existing buildings. This study aims to investigate the uncertainties of fragility curves, with special consideration of the single-building sigma. Experimental data and simplified models are applied to the BRD tower in Bucharest, Romania, a RC building with permanent instrumentation. A three-step methodology is applied： （1） adjustment of a linear MDOF model for experimental modal analysis using a Timoshenko beam model and based on Anderson＇s criteria, （2） computation of the structure＇s response to a large set of accelerograms simulated by SIMQKE software, considering twelve ground motion parameters as intensity measurements （IM）, and （3） construction of the fragility curves by comparing numerical interstory drift with the threshold criteria provided by the Hazus methodology for the slight damage state. By introducing experimental data into the model, uncertainty is reduced to 0.02 considering Sd ） as seismic intensity IM and uncertainty related to the model is assessed at 0.03. These values must be compared with the total uncertainty value of around 0.7 provided by the Hazus methodology.     

Intensity Spectra Versus Response Spectra: Basic Concepts and Applications

This paper begins with a critical assessment of the concept of macroseismic intensity, on which traditional scales, such as MSK and EMS, are based. The main shortcoming identified is the model's failure to consider the spectral features of ground motion. This omission may lead to erroneous seismic zonation, as shown in the paper. As a result, the model is of little interest to engineers who must design and build safe structures while adopting economical solutions. The paper presents a way to radically improve this situation. The starting point for this approach was the experience of the destructive Vrancea earthquake of 1977.03.04, which made it clear that intensity appears to be different for structures having natural periods pertaining to different spectral domains. The solution proposed to the shortcomings of the traditional intensity concept is postulated on a system of analytical expressions, covering definitions of global intensities, of intensities related to oscillation frequency and of intensities related to a definite spectral band. The latter definition lies at the basis of a definition of discrete intensity spectra. Illustrative applications are presented, in relation to global intensities and to discrete intensity spectra. We then analyze an illustrative case in which the use of traditional macroseismic survey techniques led to erroneous seismic zonation. Finally, some conclusions and recommendations are presented. Based on the authors?? long-term experience, we strongly recommend close interaction between seismologists and engineers in working groups and joint projects targeted on radical improvement of the basic concepts of seismic intensity and of specific analysis procedures.     

The Restricted Three-Body Problem: Comments on the Rotational Effect

The synchronization between the orbital motion and axial rotation of the two component stars of a binary system is reviewed. Some previous published papers are mentioned and the general conclusion is outlined: If we shall use a rotating coordinate system synchronous with one of the two stellar axial rotations, it is not possible to obtain a Jacobi integral and the Roche geometry cannot be further analyzed. In addition, a theoretical approach is summarized in order to use the axial rotations of the two component stars, even if the constants of the stellar structure (k₂)₁, (k₂)₂must be taken into consideration. So it is found that if the stellar angular velocities are higher than the corresponding Keplerian angular velocity (ω_i≫ ω_k, i= ), the problem of the rotational effect could be of practical consideration. Finally, a theoretical relationship between the two constants (k₂)₁and (k₂)₂of the stellar structure is established.     

Mixed finite element discretization and Newton iteration for a reactive contaminant transport model with nonequilibrium sorption: convergence analysis and error estimates

We present a numerical scheme for reactive contaminant transport with nonequilibrium sorption in porous media. The mass conservative scheme is based on Euler implicit, mixed finite elements, and Newton method. We consider the case of a Freundlich-type sorption. In this case, the sorption isotherm is not Lipschitz but just Hölder continuous. To deal with this, we perform a regularization step. The convergence of the scheme is analyzed. An explicit order of convergence depending only on the regularization parameter, the time step, and the mesh size is derived. We give also a sufficient condition for the quadratic convergence of the Newton method. Finally, relevant numerical results are presented.     

Climate change perception in Romania

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - In the last decades, anthropogenic drivers have significantly influenced the natural climate variability of Earth’s atmosphere. Climate change has become...     

Accuracy and sensitivity analysis for 54 models of computing hourly diffuse solar irradiation on clear sky

Fifty-four broadband models for computation of solar diffuse irradiation on horizontal surface were tested in Romania (South-Eastern Europe). The input data consist of surface meteorological data, column integrated data, and data derived from satellite measurements. The testing procedure is performed in 21 stages intended to provide information about the sensitivity of the models to various sets of input data. There is no model to be ranked “the best” for all sets of input data. However, some of the models performed better than others, in the sense that they were ranked among the best for most of the testing stages. The best models for solar diffuse radiation computation are, on equal footing, ASHRAE 2005 model (ASHRAE 2005) and King model (King and Buckius, Solar Energy 22:297–301, 1979). The second best model is MAC model (Davies, Bound Layer Meteor 9:33–52, 1975). Details about the performance of each model in the 21 testing stages are found in the Electronic Supplementary Material.