Urban stormwater thermal gene expression models for protection of sensitive receiving streams

Thermal impact of typical high‐density residential, industrial, and commercial land uses is a major concern for the health of aquatic life in urban watersheds, especially in smaller, cold, and cool‐water streams. This is the first study of its kind that provides simple easy‐to‐use equations, developed using gene expression programming (GEP) that can guide the assessment and the design of urban stormwater management systems to protect thermally sensitive receiving streams. We developed 3 GEP models using data collected during 3 years (2009–2011) from 4 urban catchments; the first GEP model predicts event mean temperature at the inlet of the pond; the second model predicts the stormwater temperature at the outlet of the pond; and the third model predicts the temperature of the stormwater after flowing through a cooling trench and before discharging to the receiving stream. The new models have high correlation coefficients of 0.90–0.94 and low prediction uncertainty of less than 4% of the median value of the predicted runoff temperatures. Sensitivity analysis shows that climatic factors have the highest influence on the thermal enrichment followed by the catchment characteristics and the key design variables of the stormwater pond and the cooling trench. The general method presented here is easily transferable to other regions of the world (but not necessarily the exact equations developed here); also through sensitivity and parametric analysis, we gained insight on the key factors and their relative importance in modelling thermal enrichment of urban stromwater runoff.     

Evaluation of Subsurface Lithologic Units for Groundwater Exploration in the Barind Tract of Bangladesh

Barind Tract, located north western part of Bangladesh, is one of the most diversified physiographic units of the country. The surface water supply in this part is particularly limited, so the irrigation is almost entirely depends on groundwater. However, over exploitation indicates falling groundwater heads in this area. The objective of present study is to examine the nature of the aquifer system Barind Tract of Bangladesh in order to assess the sustainability of groundwater yield. Borehole lithology data were collected, processed and analyzed for this purpose. Representative panel diagram, 3-D stratigraphic and cross-sectional views were also prepared for necessary assessment of the variation of individual subsurface stratum in different locations. The study identified three subsurface geologic formations namely, a top clay layer, sand layer of different grain size and at the bottom an impermeable clay zone. Maps of formation thickness and index revealed that aquifer thickness is low in the north-western corner and in some places of middle of south-western corner. The thickness of sand formation in other places is recorded above 20 m. It is expect that the finding of the study will help groundwater resources development, planning and management in the area.     

Correction to: Application of 1D and 2D hydrodynamic modeling to study glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) and its impact on a hydropower station in Central Himalaya

Natural Hazards - The article was published with the citation “Worni et al. (2012)”. The author group of the article would like readers to know that this information should instead...     

Regional bivariate modeling of droughts using L-comoments and copulas

The regional bivariate modeling of drought characteristics using the copulas provides valuable information for water resources management and drought risk assessment. The regional frequency analysis (RFA) can specify the similar sites within a region using L-comoments approach. One of the important steps in the RFA is estimating regional parameters of the copula function. In the present study, an optimization-based method along with the adjusted charged system search are introduced and applied to estimate the regional parameters of the copula models. The capability of the proposed methodology is illustrated by copula functions on drought events. Three commonly used copulas containing Clayton, Frank and Gumbel are employed to derive the joint distribution of drought severity and duration. The result of the new method are compared to the method of moments and after applying several goodness-of-fit tests, the results indicate that the new method provides higher accuracy than the classic one. Furthermore, the results of the upper tail dependence coefficient indicate that the Gumbel copula is the best-fitted copula among the other ones for modeling drought characteristics.     

Operation of two major reservoirs of Iran under IPCC scenarios during the XXI century

We assess the effects of prospective climate change until 2100 on water management of two major reservoirs of Iran, namely, Dez (3.34 × 10⁹ m³) and Alavian (6 × 10⁷ m³). We tune the Poly‐Hydro model suited for simulation of hydrological cycle in high altitude snow‐fed catchments. We assess optimal operation rules (ORs) for the reservoirs using three algorithms under dynamic and static operation and linear and non‐linear decision rules during control run (1990–2010 for Dez and 2000–2010 for Alavian). We use projected climate scenarios (plus statistical downscaling) from three general circulation models, EC‐Earth, CCSM4, and ECHAM6, and three emission scenarios, or representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, for a grand total of nine scenarios, to mimic evolution of the hydrological cycle under future climate until 2100. We subsequently test the ORs under the future hydrological scenarios (at half century and end of century) and the need for reoptimization. Poly‐Hydro model when benchmarked against historical data well mimics the hydrological budget of both catchments, including the main processes of evapotranspiration and streamflows. Teaching–learning‐based optimization delivers the best performance in both reservoirs according to objective scores and is used for future operation. Our projections in Dez catchment depict decreased precipitation along the XXI century, with ?1% on average (of the nine scenarios) at half century and ?6% at the end of century, with changes in streamflows on average ?7% yearly and ?13% yearly, respectively. In Alavian, precipitation would decrease by ?10% on average at half century and ?13% at the end of century, with streamflows ?14% yearly and ?18% yearly, respectively. Under the projected future hydrology, reservoirs' operation would provide lower performance (i.e., larger lack of water) than now, especially for Alavian dam. Our results provide evidence of potentially decreasing water availability and less effective water management in water stressed areas like Northern Iran here during this century.     

Partial breaching of Hattian Bala Landslide Dam formed in the 8th October 2005 Kashmir Earthquake, Pakistan

The 8th October 2005 Kashmir Earthquake of magnitude 7.6 triggered a huge landslide 3.5 km upstream of Hattian Bala town in the state of Azad Jammu Kashmir of Pakistan. The debris mass blocked two tributaries of the Karli branch of the Jhelum River and was breached on 9th February 2010. This debris dam provided us with a rare opportunity to keep careful and continuous eyes on its post-earthquake behavior especially as it was a serious threat to people living along the lower reaches of both the Karli and Jhelum Rivers. This paper describes post-formation behaviors of the debris mass, breaching-inflicted changes of not only the debris mass but also both upstream and downstream reaches based upon laser-scanned images of landforms and Differential Global Positioning System survey results.     

GGMCalc a software for calculation of the geoid undulation and the height anomaly using the iteration method, and classical gravity anomaly

The Global Geopotential Models (GGMs) are very significant because of their usefulness in determination of the parameters like geoidal undulations, height anomalies, gravity anomalies, and so on. In this paper, first, we review the calculation of such parameters and then present the GGMCalc software, which is prepared in Fortran 95 under GNU/Linux Operating System. This software is capable of using the files presented by the International Center for Global Earth Models (ICGEM) directly without need to apply any changes on them. The software is completely structural and user friendly and could be used conveniently for academic purposes.     

Axisymmetric transient waves in transversely isotropic half-space

A transversely isotropic material in the sense of Green is considered. Using a series of potential functions proposed in [Eskandari-Ghadi M. A complete solution of the wave equations for transversely isotropic media. J Elasticity 2005; 81:1–19], the solutions of the transient wave equations within a half-space under surface load are obtained in the Laplace–Hankel domain for axisymmetric problems. The solutions are investigated in detail in the special case of a surface point force pulse varying with time as Heaviside function. Using Cagniard–De Hoop method, the inverse Laplace transform and inverse Hankel transform of the solutions are then obtained in the form of integrals with finite limits. For validity of the analytical results, the final formulations for surface waves are degenerated for an isotropic material and compared with the existing formulation obtained by Pekeris [The seismic surface pulse. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 1955;41:469–80], to show that they are exactly the same. The numerical evaluations of the integrals for some transversely isotropic materials as well as an isotropic one are obtained. The present approach is then numerically verified by comparing a particular case of displacements for the surface of an isotropic half-space subjected to a point load of Heaviside function with the solutions obtained by Pekeris [The seismic surface pulse. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 1955;41:469–80]. In addition, the wave equations for the mentioned medium are obtained on the vertical line directly under the applied surface load. The final formulations are degenerated for an isotropic material and compared with the existing formulation given in Graff [Wave motion in elastic solids. New York: Dover Publications Inc; 1975 [New Ed edition, November 1991]], to show that they are also exactly the same. Then equations are presented in graphical forms using an appropriate numerical evaluation.