A brief review of ENSO theories and prediction

Although the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) originates and develops in the equatorial Pacific, it has substantial climatic impacts around the globe. Thus, the ability to effectively simulate and predict ENSO one or more seasons in advance is of great societal importance, but this remains a challenging task. The main obstacles are the diversity, complexity,irregularity, and asymmetry of ENSO. The purpose of this article is to organically integrate the understanding of ENSO based on current progress on the physical mechanisms, prediction, and connections between the interannual ENSO phenomenon and physical processes on other time and space scales, and to provide guidance for future studies by extracting specific important questions.     

The unusual 2014–2016 El Ni?o events: Dynamics,prediction and enlightenments

The 2014–2016 El Ni?o events consist of a stalled El Ni?o event in the winter of 2014/2015 and a following extreme El Ni?o event in the end of 2015. Neither event was successfully predicted in operational prediction models. Because of the unusual evolutions of these events that rarely happened in the historical observations, few experience was ready for understanding and predicting the two El Ni?o events when they occurred. Also due to their specialties, considerable attention were attracted with aims to reveal the hidden mechanisms. This article reviews the recent progresses and knowledge that were obtained in these studies. Emerging from these studies, it was argued that the key factor that was responsible for the stalled El Ni?o in 2014 was the unexpected summertime Easterly Wind Surges(EWSs) or the lack of summertime Westerly Wind Bursts(WWBs). Most operational prediction models failed to reproduce such stochastic winds and thus made unrealistic forecasts. The two El Ni?o events awakened the research community again to incorporate the state-of-the-art climate models to simulate the stochastic winds and investigate their roles in the development of El Ni?o.     

Chronological Link Between the Abrupt Change of the Loess Grain Size Sequence and the Formation of River Terraces on the Eastern Margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Since the Late Early-Pleistocene

Based on the study of magnetostratigraphy, magnetic susceptibility and grain size of Garzê A section on the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau since the late early-Pleistocene, the basal age of Garzê loess is located at ~1.16?MaBP and a series of abrupt paleoclimatic changes is detected. The times of abrupt changes are of distinct series features, and the interval between each two adjacent abrupt changes is ~50 kyr or ~100?kyr. The most significant abrupt changes occur at around 1.06, 0.85, 0.6, 0.46, 0.39 and 0.14?MaBP. There is a chronological link between the abrupt changes of paleoclimate and the formation of river terraces and it is almost simultaneous with a strengthening trend of neotectonic activities. Therefore, maybe the climatic transition controll the timing of terrace formation, and the tectonic uplift originate potential energy and has a direct effect on channel incision, both the climatic transition and the tectonic uplift are important. Terraces are the products of the interaction of instable climatic variations and tectonic uplift. Like the loess-paleosol sequences, river terrace sequences are also controlled by the climate-tectonic coupling system and are ruled by climate-tectonic gyration with a ~100?kyr paracycle, which may be the short eccentricity period of the earth.     

Subtropical air-sea interaction and development of central Pacific El Niño

The standard deviation of the central Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) during the period from October to February shows that the central Pacific SSTA variation is primarily due to the occurrence of the Central Pacific El Nio (CP-El Nio) and has a connection with the subtropical air-sea interaction in the northeastern Pacific. After removing the influence of the Eastern Pacific El Nio, an S-EOF analysis is conducted and the leading mode shows a clear seasonal SSTA evolving from the subtropical northeastern Pacific to the tropical central Pacific with a quasi-biennial period. The initial subtropical SSTA is generated by the wind speed decrease and surface heat flux increase due to a north Pacific anomalous cyclone. Such subtropical SSTA can further influence the establishment of the SSTA in the tropical central Pacific via the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback. After established, the central equatorial Pacific SSTA can be strengthened by the zonal advective feedback and thermocline feedback, and develop into CP-El Nio. However, as the thermocline feedback increases the SSTA cooling after the mature phase, the heat flux loss and the re-versed zonal advective feedback can cause the phase transition of CP-El Nio. Along with the wind stress variability, the recharge (discharge) process occurs in the central (eastern) equatorial Pacific and such a process causes the phase consistency between the thermocline depth and SST anomalies, which presents a contrast to the original recharge/discharge theory.