The use of rogation ceremony records in climatic reconstruction: a case study from Catalonia (Spain)

The use of rogation ceremonies due to environmental causes constitutes an important source of information in paleoclimatic reconstructions. Their specific characteristics and full documental records permit highly reliable series to be reconstructed with daily, monthly, seasonal or annual resolution over periods of several centuries (3–4 centuries in the case of Catalonia). The levels of intensity, reflected in the type of religious ceremony enacted, allows quantification. Comparative analysis is made possible by the similarity of the mechanisms developed in different localities. The use of these series in paleoclimatological studies is a promising line of research, particularly as regards the pro pluvia rogations celebrated in the Mediterranean countries and in South America.     

Daily Meteorological Observations in Cádiz – San Fernando. Analysis of the Documentary Sources and the Instrumental Data Content (1786–1996)

Meteorological observations in the city of Cádiz are acknowledged as having been made from the middle of the 18th century onwards although they were only recorded and preserved in documentary form from 1789 onwards. Data readings were taken at the new Naval Observatory in San Fernando, ten kilometres from Cádiz, from 1797 onwards. Continuous series for temperature and atmospheric pressure at a daily resolution have been compiled and constructed from 1817 until 1996. The data series is composed of thrice daily observations made at Cádiz (1821–1880) by local observers and hourly data from Naval Observatory at San Fernando (1870–1996).     

Influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on precipitation and surface air temperature in South America

The regional influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on South America is described. Maps of probability of weekly-averaged rainfall exceeding the upper tercile were computed for all seasons and related statistically with the phase of the MJO as characterized by the Wheeler–Hendon real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index and with the OLR MJO Index. The accompanying surface air temperature and circulation anomalies were also calculated. The influence of the MJO on regional scales along with their marked seasonal variations was documented. During December–February when the South American monsoon system is active, chances of enhanced rainfall are observed in southeastern South America (SESA) region mainly during RMM phases 3 and 4, accompanied by cold anomalies in the extratropics, while enhanced rainfall in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) region is observed in phases 8 and 1. The SESA (SACZ) signal is characterized by upper-level convergence (divergence) over tropical South America and a cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly near the southern tip of the continent. Impacts during March–May are similar, but attenuated in the extratropics. Conversely, in June–November, reduced rainfall and cold anomalies are observed near the coast of the SACZ region during phases 4 and 5, favored by upper-level convergence over tropical South America and an anticyclonic anomaly over southern South America. In September–November, enhanced rainfall and upper-level divergence are observed in the SACZ region during phases 7 and 8. These signals are generated primarily through the propagation of Rossby wave energy generated in the region of anomalous heating associated with the MJO.     

Linear discriminant analysis to describe the relationship between rainfall and landslides in Bogotá, Colombia

Bogotá is located in the central Andean region of Colombia, which is frequently affected by landslide processes. These processes are mostly triggered during the rainy season in the city. This fact remarks the importance of determining what rain-derived parameters (e.g. intensity, antecedent rain, daily rain) are better related with the occurrence of landslides. For this purpose, the linear discriminant analysis (LDA), a technique derived from multivariate statistics, was used. The application of this type of analysis led to obtain simple mathematical functions that represent the probability of occurrence of landslides in Bogotá. The functions also allow to identify the most relevant variables derived from records of rainfall linked to the generation of landslides. A proof of concept using the proposed methodology was done using historic rainfall data from a 9-km² area of homogenous climatology and geomorphology in the south part of Bogotá. Landslides needed to be grouped for the LDA. Each one of these grouping categories represents landslides that occurred in similar geomorphologic conditions. Another set of events with no landslides was generated synthetically. Results of the proof of concept show that rainfall parameters such as normalized rainfall intensity I _MAP, normalized daily rainfall R _MAP and rainy-days normal RDN have the best statistical correlation with the landslides observed in the zone of analysis.