Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for conditioning a permeability field to pressure data

Generating one realization of a random permeability field that is consistent with observed pressure data and a known variogram model is not a difficult problem. If, however, one wants to investigate the uncertainty of reservior behavior, one must generate a large number of realizations and ensure that the distribution of realizations properly reflects the uncertainty in reservoir properties. The most widely used method for conditioning permeability fields to production data has been the method of simulated annealing, in which practitioners attempt to minimize the difference between the ’ ’true and simulated production data, and “true” and simulated variograms. Unfortunately, the meaning of the resulting realization is not clear and the method can be extremely slow. In this paper, we present an alternative approach to generating realizations that are conditional to pressure data, focusing on the distribution of realizations and on the efficiency of the method. Under certain conditions that can be verified easily, the Markov chain Monte Carlo method is known to produce states whose frequencies of appearance correspond to a given probability distribution, so we use this method to generate the realizations. To make the method more efficient, we perturb the states in such a way that the variogram is satisfied automatically and the pressure data are approximately matched at every step. These perturbations make use of sensitivity coefficients calculated from the reservoir simulator.     

Quantification of Diclofenac in Hospital Effluent and Identification of Metabolites and Degradation Products

In this study the occurrence of diclofenac and sub‐products in effluent emerging from the University Hospital at the Federal University of Santa Maria was investigated. One metabolite was identified and, in aqueous solution, three degradation products. The quantification was conducted by means of HPLC‐DAD, and the determination of metabolite and degradation products by LC–ESI–MS/MS–QTrap. For the HPLC‐DAD method, a 70:30 mixture of methanol/sodium phosphate was used in isocratic mode. For the LC–ESI–MS/MS–QTrap determinations, a mobile phase, where phase A was an ammonium acetate solution 5 × 10^?3 mol L^?1, and phase B was methanol (5 × 10^?3 mol L^?1)/ammonium acetate (9:1, v/v), on gradient mode. The LDs for the HPLC and LC–MS/MS methods, respectively, were 2.5 and 0.02 µg L^?1, the LQs, 8.3 and 0.05 µg L^?1, and the linear range from 10 up to 2000 µg L^?1 and 0.05 up to 10 µg L^?1. As expected, the LC–ESI–MS/MS–QTrap method was more sensitive and less laborious. The metabolite 4′‐hydroxy‐diclofenac was identified. Photolysis was used for the degradation studies and three products of diclofenac were identified (m/z of 214, 286 and 303) in aqueous solution. These results notwithstanding, no degradation products of diclofenac were found in the hospital effluent.     

The eutrophication history of a tropical water supply reservoir in Brazil

Guarapiranga Reservoir is the second most important public water supply in São Paulo, Brazil and has been eutrophic for several decades. We inferred the major ecological shifts for the period 1919–2010 related to multiple stressors (forest flooding, hydrological change, use of algicide and eutrophication), using geochemistry (TOC, TN, TP, C/N, δ¹⁵N, δ¹³C) and diatom assemblages in a short (75-cm) sediment core. Thirty-two diatom species were abundant in the core and stratigraphically constrained incremental sum of squares analysis enabled identification of three diatom zones and four subzones, i.e. depths at which marked changes in species composition occurred. Early diatom assemblages were dominated by benthic, oligotrophic taxa, mainly Eunotia, influenced by flooded vegetation after dam construction. A shift to dominance by a planktonic species (Eunotia tukanorum) occurred ca. 1932, during the period of initial physical disturbance and early use of the water body as a public water supply. Diatoms and geochemical variables show that the reservoir was oligotrophic from ~1919 to 1947. Eutrophication began ~1975 and by the early 1980s the reservoir had become eutrophic, in response to an explosive increase in human population in the watershed. Severe cultural eutrophication has persisted since ~1990. Higher concentrations of copper in the sediments, beginning in 1991, reflect the increased use of copper sulfate to control cyanobacteria blooms and provide a chronological marker. Higher δ¹⁵N values in recent sediments indicate greater sewage inputs and low C/N values reflect the predominant contribution of algae to sediment organic matter. Eutrophic taxa Cyclotella meneghiniana and Nitzschia sp. dominate recent diatom assemblages, along with Aulacoseira granulata, a species that is tolerant of copper sulfate. Diatom assemblages reflect multiple stressors, however, geochemical information provides a better understanding of the early phase of the reservoir. Paleolimnologically documented trophic state changes in this important drinking water supply are largely attributable to increased urbanization of the drainage basin and inputs of sewage. Management efforts should focus on mitigating this nutrient source.     

Paleolimnological records reveal biotic homogenization driven by eutrophication in tropical reservoirs

Biodiversity changes in response to eutrophication, climate variability and species invasions. These pressures have been shown to reduce community heterogeneity at various scales; however, how productivity drives homogenization patterns in a community of primary producers, such as diatoms, has not been studied. Using a dataset with good temporal resolution, obtained from cores collected from seven tropical reservoirs, we evaluated patterns of spatial and temporal homogenization, i.e. the trends in temporal α-diversity and spatial β-diversity (change in community composition), of diatom assemblages over the past 60–100 years. The paleolimnological records allowed us to study biodiversity trends since the initial community (reservoir construction) in those systems with low anthropogenic impact and also those undergoing eutrophication. No clear trend of spatial β-diversity change over time was found when all reservoirs were analyzed together. However, when only eutrophic reservoirs were considered, a marked decrease in the spatial β-diversity occurred, suggesting that eutrophication leads to homogenization of the diatom assemblage. These findings were reinforced by the lack of change in β-diversity when the age of the reservoirs was standardized, indicating that the reservoirs’ ontogeny did not influence the spatial β-diversity trend and β-diversity did not increase even in the reservoirs with low anthropogenic impact. In addition, the results showed a decrease of α-diversity over time for almost all the eutrophic reservoirs, as well as a decrease in the total species pool for the reservoirs, although periphytic diatoms may be favored by the appearance and sometimes mass development of floating macrophytes in warm, shallow eutrophic reservoirs. This study supports the role of eutrophication as one of the main drivers of diatom assemblage homogenization in tropical reservoirs, with a significant loss of species over time.     

Observed Weak Electron Beam Discharge Driven Grain Acceleration/Accretion with Implications for Planet Formation

Work presented here addresses the issue of grain accretion, an essential yet poorly understood process in planetary system formation, linking the dynamically modeled steps of temperature-dependent condensation of gases after proto-sun gravitational collapse to coalescence of kilometer-size planetesimals into planets. The mechanism for grain accretion has proven difficult to model dynamically. Here, we attempt to test the thesis that the accretion process is electrostatically-driven by non-uniform charging of grains in a low discharge/weak field environment equivalent to periodic conditions in protoplanetary nebulae during solar discharge events such as flares. We simulate in the laboratory the behavior of grains in relationship to surfaces in such an environment. The nature of the observed disaggregation, repulsion, and acceleration of grains away from initial surfaces, and their reaggregation as coatings on surrounding oppositely charged surfaces, provide an empirical experimental basis for an electrostatically-driven model for grain behavior and accretion. Similar weak discharge processes in the protoplanetary disk solar nebula could give rise to increased grain acceleration and collisional compression induced surface coating, necessary conditions for increased accretion. The frequency, timing, and level of energetic output of the proto-sun would influence the effectiveness of such processes in developing stable aggregates, and the nature of the solar system that would result.     

True ‘gravitational lens’ effect for cylindrical deflectors

We show that gravitational light deflection is truly equivalent to the optical effect of a prism and a thin diverging lens when the massive deflector has cylindrical symmetry. We then investigate the possibility of cosmological measurements analogous to those proposed by Refsdal in the spherically-symmetric case.This work was partially supported by FINEP, CNPq, and CAPES.