Stochastic modelling of groundwater flow and solute transport in aquifers

This paper presents an introductory overview of recently developed stochastic theories for tackling spatial variability problems in predicting groundwater flow and solute transport. Advantages and limitations of the theories are discussed. Lastly, strategies based on the stochastic approaches to predict solute transport in aquifers are recommended.     

A high resolution,multiproxy Late‐glacial record of climate change and intrasystem responses in northwest England

A lacustrine carbonate sequence from Hawes Water, Lancashire, UK, has been studied using stable isotopic, lithological, pollen and mineral magnetic analysis. The data reveal four abrupt climatic oscillations in the Late‐glacial Interstadial leading up to the onset of the Loch Lomond Stadial. The data also point to climatic warming relatively early within the stadial, ca. 12 500 GRIP yr, prior to the onset of the Holocene. The oxygen isotope record is taken as a signature of climate forcing against which the response of the lake‐system can be monitored. By adopting this approach it is revealed that the response of the biological system to the rapid climatic oscillations is non‐linear and primarily a function of the antecedent conditions. A significant end‐Devensian isotopic excursion (A) is matched by only minor changes in the cold‐adapted floras and faunas. During the warmer interstadial, the response of the biological ecosystem (events B–D) is clearly influenced by thresholds: major changes in the catchment vegetation associated with relatively minor oscillations in the isotopic signature. The stratigraphical patterns reveal significant lag effects between the onset of climate deterioration and resulting changes in vegetation. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Baryon loading and the Weibel instability in gamma-ray bursts

The dynamics of two counter-streaming electron–positron–ion unmagnetized plasma shells with zero net charge is analysed in the context of magnetic field generation in gamma-ray burst internal shocks due to the Weibel instability. The effects of large thermal motion of plasma particles, arbitrary mixture of plasma species and space charge effects are taken into account. We show that, although thermal effects slow down the instability, baryon loading leads to a non-negligible growth rate even for large temperatures and different shell velocities, thus guaranteeing the robustness and the occurrence of the Weibel instability for a wide range of scenarios.     

Diurnal photometric conditions at Teide observatory and long-term solar irradiance variations

Monochromatic extinction coefficients at four wavelengths have been obtained over a period of more than two years at the Observatorio del Teide (Izaña Tenerife) using a full disc, direct sunlight, quadruple photometer devoted to the detection of integral luminosity oscillations of the Sun. The mean extinction coefficients (0.13 at 500 nm) show a seasonal variation of about 15%, the best atmospheric conditions being in winter and autumn. Moreover, in anyone day the extinction coefficient in the afternoon is always lower than the one in the morning by 7%. A one-year period fluctuation, with an amplitude of 0.035 mag, has been identified in the instrumental magnitudes outside the atmosphere, and is interpreted as the variation produced by the different Sun-Earth distance from winter to summer. Finally, the study made to detect periodic time fluctuations in both, Sun's magnitude and extinction coefficients, has given null results at levels of 0.04 and 1.8%, respectively.     

The arsenic source term for an in-pit uranium mine tailings facility and its long-term impact on the regional groundwater

Detailed field sampling and analyses and laboratory-based diffusion-cell experiments were used in conjunction with 3-D reactive transport modeling (MODFLOW and MT3D99) to quantify the fate and long-term (10 ka) transport of As in the Rabbit Lake In-pit Tailings Management Facility (RLITMF), northern Saskatchewan, Canada. The RLITMF (300 m × 425 m × 90 m thick) was engineered to ensure solute transport within the RLITMF is dominated by diffusion. Concentrations of As in the tailings pore fluids ranged from 0.24 to 140 mg/L (n = 43). Arsenic speciation analyses indicate 90% of this arsenic exists as As⁵⁺. This observation is supported by pH–Eh measurements of pore fluids (n = 135). Geochemical analyses yielded a strong inverse correlation between the Fe/As molar ratio in the tailings solids and the corresponding concentration of dissolved As, which is attributed to the adsorption of As to secondary 2-line ferrihydrite present in the tailings. Diffusion-cell testing yielded values for the effective diffusion coefficient, sorption coefficient, and effective porosity of As in the tailings of 4.5 × 10⁻¹⁰ m²/s, 2–4 cm³/g and 0.36, respectively. Reactive transport simulations using the field and laboratory data show adsorption of As to the tailings and diffusive transport of dissolved As in the tailings should reduce the source term concentration of As to between 40% and 70% of the initial concentrations over the 10 ka simulation period. Based on these simulations, the As concentrations in the regional groundwater, 50 m down gradient of the tailings facility, should be maintained at background concentrations of 0.001 mg/L over the 10 ka period. These findings suggest the engineered in-pit disposal of U mine tailings can provide long-term protection for the local groundwater regime from As contamination.     

Modeling households’ decisions on reconstruction of houses damaged by earthquakes––Japanese case study

In this study, households’ decisions on reconstruction of damaged houses were modeled, using questionnaire data in Japan. Characteristics of households’ decisions were investigated using parameter estimation results. The effects of subsidizing policy were evaluated as follows. First, subsidy for rebuilding may be effective for the households whose houses were heavily damaged. Second, there is a possibility that subsidy accelerated rebuilding of houses by the households having children. Third, subsidy for rebuilding may not be effective for elderly people’s households and households in depopulated areas.     

Partitioning of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons between water and particles compared to bioaccumulation in mussels: a harbour case

Water and particles from three sites located in Halifax Harbour, near and further away from combined municipal sewage effluents (CMSE) were analysed for parental and alkylated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (par and alkPAH). Bioavailability of PAH was compared for inter-tidal mussels collected at the same sites in April and November. The PAH fingerprint determined over 9 sampling times covering a period of 19 months differed more between phases (water and particles) and seasons, than between sites. In the spring, more alkPAH associated with diesel and gasoline were detected in the soluble phase, along with more bioaccumulation of alkPAH in inter-tidal mussels. A broader number of parPAH were detected in mussels collected in the fall. The mean sum of dissolved alkPAH concentrations was higher in water at the site closer to raw CMSE than at the other two sites and particles of that site. However, lowest bioconcentration factors (BCF) were determined in mussels of this more contaminated site. Similar biota-particle accumulation factors (BPAF) were determined for parPAH in mussels from the three sites, all lower than the BCF of alkPAH. The study indicates that sewage treatment plants will reduce the amount of parPAH especially larger than fluoranthene and pyrene from being deposited in the harbour; that alk naphthalenes and fluorenes present in water will continue to be discharged; that the disturbance of sediments can make particle-bound PAH available to mussels.     

Dynamic properties of green water event in the overtopping of extreme waves on a fixed dock

A statistical model is developed to predict wave overtopping volume and rate of extreme waves on a fixed deck. The probability density function for the volume and rate of overtopping water are formulated based on the truncated Weibull distribution with the assumption of local sinusoidal profile for small amplitude waves. Sensitivity to the wave nonlinearity parameter and deck clearance is discussed. The statistical model is compared to laboratory data of the instantaneous free surface elevation measured in front of a fixed deck, and overtopping volume and overtopping rate measured at the leading edge of the deck. The statistical theory compared well with the measured exceedance probability seaward of the deck. The model prediction of the exceedance probability of deck overtopping gave qualitatively good agreement for large overtopping values.