Prediction of the seismic capacity of RC structural walls by non-parametric multidimensional regression

The use of a non-parametric multidimensional regression is suggested for the prediction of the seismic capacity of reinforced concrete structural walls. This capacity is expressed in terms of the shear strength, drift, ductility and failure mode of the walls. For the application of the method a data base is needed which contains data on the results of tests performed on the structural elements under consideration. The data base used in the study was compiled from the available literature, and includes data from laboratory tests carried out on 262 structural walls. The method was validated by comparing the predicted and test results. A comparison with some available closed-form empirical predictions has been made. The results show that the accuracy of the predictions obtained by the proposed method is, on average, higher than that provided by existing formulae. The proposed method has several advantages when compared to closed-form empirical expressions based on standard linear regression: (1) The relationship between the input and output variables is not selected a priori by a prediction law. (2) It takes into account the currently available data base, which can be updated when new information becomes available. (3) An arbitrary number of input and output variables can be taken into account using the same data base. (4) The method can be applied directly to similar problems in structural and earthquake engineering, wherever a suitable data base is available.     

Prediction of site factors by a non‐parametric approach

The problem addressed in this paper is the estimation of the (de)amplification of ground motion at soil sites (compared to rock sites) as a function of the intensity of the ground motion. A non‐parametric empirical approach, called the Conditional Average Estimator (CAE) method, has been used, which is different from all existing approaches. Site factors (SFs) for sites characterized with V_s30 between 180 and 360 m/s were predicted for the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and the spectral accelerations by using a combined database of recorded ground motions. Based on the results of the study, site factors for PGA and selected spectral accelerations are proposed, separately for weaker and stronger ground motions. Comparisons are made with the SFs used in two standards (Eurocode 8 and ASCE 7‐10) and with SFs proposed in the literature, including four Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) ground‐motion prediction equations. The study reveals that (i) SFs depend strongly on the ground‐motion intensity. In the case of stronger ground motions, they decrease with increasing acceleration. (ii) The SFs predicted in this study agree reasonably well with the existing SFs in the case of weak ground motion. For higher intensities of ground motion, they are generally smaller than the existing ones. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A web‐based methodology for the prediction of approximate IDA curves

A web‐based methodology for the prediction of approximate IDA curves, which consists of two independent processes, is proposed. The result of the first process is a response database of the SDOF model, whereas the second process involves the prediction of approximate IDA curves from the response database by using n‐dimensional linear interpolation. Such an approach enables user‐friendly prediction of the seismic response parameters with high accuracy. In order to demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed methodology, a web application for the prediction of the approximate 16th, 50th and 84th fractile responses of an RC structure was developed. For the presented case study, the response database was computed for a set of 30 ground motion records and the discrete values of six structural parameters. Very good agreement between the computed and the approximated IDA curves of the four‐storey RC building was observed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic behaviour of confined masonry walls

The results of tests of plain and confined masonry walls with h/l ratio equal to 1·5, made at 1:5 scale, have been used to develop a rational method for modelling the seismic behaviour of confined masonry walls. A trilinear model of lateral resistance–displacement envelope curve has been proposed, where the resistance is calculated as a combination of the shear resistance of the plain masonry wall panel and dowel effect of the tie-columns’ reinforcement. Lateral stiffness, however, is modelled as a function of the initial effective stiffness and damage, occurring to the panel at characteristic limit states. Good correlation between the predicted and experimental envelopes has been obtained in the particular case studied. The method has been also verified for the case of prototype confined masonry walls with h/l ratio equal to 1·0. Good correlation between the predicted and experimental values of lateral resistance indicates the general validity of the proposed method. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flexural deformation capacity of rectangular RC columns determined by the CAE method

A non‐parametric empirical approach, called the conditional average estimator (CAE) method, has been implemented for the estimation of the flexural deformation capacity of reinforced concrete rectangular columns expressed in terms of the ultimate (‘near collapse’) drift. Two databases (PEER and Fardis), which represent subsets of the original databases, were used. Four input parameters were employed in the basic model: axial load index, index related to confinement, shear span index, and concrete compressive strength. The results of analyses suggest that, in general, ultimate drift decreases with increasing axial load index, and increases with better confinement. An increase in the shear span‐to‐depth ratio has a beneficial effect until a turning point is reached. After that the opposite trend can be observed, i.e. a decrease in the ultimate drift with further increasing of the shear span‐to‐depth ratio. No clear trend is observed in the case of concrete compressive strength. The predictions, obtained by using the Fardis database are in general somewhat larger than the predictions from the PEER database, due to the difference in the definition of ultimate drift. The scatter of results is large. The local coefficient of variation, which is a measure for dispersion, amounts to about 0.2–0.5. The ultimate drifts obtained by using the two databases, were compared with the values predicted by the Eurocode 8 empirical formula. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hysteretic energy dissipation capacity and the cyclic to monotonic drift ratio for rectangular RC columns in flexure

Predictions of energy dissipation capacity and of the deterioration of deformation capacity due to cumulative damage have been made by means of a non‐parametric empirical approach, called the conditional average estimator method, using empirical data on rectangular reinforced concrete columns that failed in flexure. Five input parameters were used: axial load index, index related to confinement, shear span index, concrete compressive strength, and longitudinal reinforcement index. The energy capacity was expressed in three different normalized forms and the deterioration of deformation capacity was defined as the ratio of the cyclic to the monotonic ultimate drift. The longitudinal reinforcement index, the index related to confinement, and the axial load index are the most influential input parameters in the case of energy capacity, whereas the latter two indices exhibit the most significant influence in the case of the drift ratio. Energy capacity decreases with an increasing axial load index, whereas it increases with increasing longitudinal reinforcement and with better confinement. In the case of the shear span index, the trend is more complex. Normal concrete has a higher energy dissipation capacity than high‐strength concrete. Similar trends are observed for the drift ratio, with the exception of the influence of the axial load index, where the trend is opposite. The dispersion of the results is high. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

From cave geomorphology to Palaeolithic human behaviour: speleogenesis,palaeoenvironmental changes and archaeological insight in the Atxurra-Armiña cave (northern Iberian Peninsula)

A detailed geomorphological study was performed in the Atxurra-Armiña cave system (northern Iberian Peninsula) to decode landscape evolution, palaeoenvironmental changes and human use of a cave within an Inner Archaeological Context. The results show an average incision rate of the river of <0.083 mm a^–1 for at least the last 419 ka, with interruptions due to sedimentary inputs. Moreover, allostratigraphic units comprising fluviokarstic deposits at the base and flowstone formation at the top have been shown to be climatically controlled, formed either during glacial–interglacial cycles or during interstadial cycles. Finally, when the cave was used by humans in the Late Magdalenian, the lower entrance was closed, and they must therefore have entered the cave through the upper entrance. To reach the sectors selected to decorate the panels, they probably travelled from the upper cave level, as the current crawlway was wider than today, according to our U/Th dating. Once these visitors reached the panels, the floor in the main gallery would have been around 15 cm lower than at present. However, the morphology of the conduit was similar; this has significant implications for understanding and interpreting the human use of the cave during the Palaeolithic.     

Ground‐motion prediction by a non‐parametric approach

Recently, several new ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) have been developed in the U.S.A. (the NGA project) and elsewhere. Unfortunately, the predictions obtained by using different models still differ considerably, although starting from the same database. In this paper, a non‐parametric approach, called the Conditional Average Estimator (CAE) method, has been used for ground‐motion prediction. The comparison between the CAE results and the predictions obtained by five NGA and one European model suggest that the model predictions depend substantially on the selection of the effective database and on the adopted functional form. Both decisions rely to some extent on judgement, and their influence is especially important at short distances from the source. The differences between the results obtained from the European and NGA databases seem to be of the same or even smaller magnitude than the differences observed between different NGA models, at least at short and moderate distances. Aftershocks in the database generally decrease the median values and increase dispersion. The non‐parametric CAE method has proved to be a simple but powerful tool for ground‐motion prediction, especially in a research environment. It can be used for quick predictions with different databases and different input parameters within the range of available data. It is easy to add to or remove data from the database, and to check the influence of additional input parameters. With availability of high quality data, the non‐parametric approach will become more reliable and more attractive also for practical applications. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the inelastic torsional response of single‐storey structures under bi‐axial excitation

An attempt has been made to explore the general trends in the seismic response of plan‐asymmetric structures without any restrictions imposed by a particular code. Systems with structural elements in both orthogonal directions under bi‐directional excitation were studied. Idealized single‐storey models with bi‐axial eccentricity were employed. The systems were torsionally stiff and, in the majority of cases, mass‐eccentric. The main findings are: in general, inelastic torsional response is qualitatively similar to elastic torsional response. Quantitatively, the torsional effect on the flexible side, expressed as an increase of displacements due to torsion, decreases slightly with increasing plastic deformation, unless the plastic deformations are small. The response on the stiff side generally strongly depends on the effect of several modes of vibration and on the influence of the ground motion in the transverse direction. These influences depend on the structural and ground motion characteristics in both directions. Reduction of displacements due to torsion, typical for elastic torsionally stiff structures, usually decreases with increasing plastic deformations. As an additional effect of large plastic deformations, a flattening of the displacement envelopes in the horizontal plane usually occurs, indicating that torsional effects in the inelastic range are generally smaller than in the elastic range. The dispersion of the results of inelastic torsional response analysis is generally larger than that of elastic analysis. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.