Multifractal analysis of the spatial distribution of earthquakes in southern Italy

We evaluate the complete spectrum of the generalized fractal dimension of the spatial pattern of microearthquakes in Southern Italy, revealing a multifractal distribution structure. Our analysis is focused on the dependence of the multifractal distribution on the size of the selected area and the kind of seismicity in the area. As the size of the window varies, we observe that the capacity, information and correlation dimensions vary significantly, while both d _∞ and d _−infin; remain unchanged within their errors limits. We interpret this result in terms of the observation that our data are mainly clustered around a linear fault (the Sisifo fault). When we restrict the selected windows around the fault, clustering around a line (the fault) is highlighted. The capacity dimension changes from about 1.8 to about 1.4 and the correlation dimension decreases because we observe in detail the clustering of the seismicity along the fault, which approximates the maximum intense clustering of the whole data set. Although our results are strongly influenced by the fact that the data are dominated by the epicentres located on the fault, we can conclude that multifractal analysis can be a very useful tool to discriminate the seismicity linked to a particular fault in a given area.     

Self-organized criticality and earthquake predictability

We analyse a seismic catalogue of South California to investigate the possibility of earthquake prediction using the hypothesis that the seismic events are self-organized critical phenomena. The relation found previously is valid only in a mean field approximation, but cannot be used for earthquake prediction because the time clustering of seismic events makes the definition of a standard deviation of waiting times of earthquakes impossible.     

Intermittent behaviour of volcanic tremor at Mt. Etna

Harmonic tremor is widely studied and modelled in a very narrow frequency band (1–5 Hz) which represents the eigenfrequencies of a resonator assumed as the source of the phenomenon. Minimal effort was dedicated towards understanding its behaviour in larger temporal scales. Here we characterise the dynamic behaviour of volcanic tremor while evaluating the complete spectrum of the generalised dimension of the phase space. The starting time series constitutes the tremor amplitude picked every 10 minutes. The choice of this lag time is made on the basis of a qualitative analysis of the properties of the tremor. The results show intermittent behaviour of the dynamics which requires an 8-dimensional map to be completely described. An interesting result is that the maximum clustering of point density in phase space occurs in a monodimensional space which implies a periodicity sometimes observed experimentally. An appropriate predictive model needs more constraints on the nature of the eight variables involved in the process.     

Is the seismic moment–frequency relation universal?

We evaluate the seismic moment–frequency relation for the Harvard catalogue in the period 1977–1994. This catalogue is composed of about 12 000 earthquakes. After selection of events in terms of depth and energy, we retain about 8000 data points. We estimate two parameters of the seismic moment distribution: the power exponent β and the cut-off value M _m . The method used is a least-squares linear fit on a log–log scale performed over a range selected on the basis of the standard deviation from the histogram. The analysis is carried out for different subdivisions of the Earth in square grids of different sizes. Neither parameter exhibits a dependence on cell size, suggesting the universality of their values and the interpretation of the existence of a cut-off as a finite size effect linked to a finite catalogue length. The variations of the parameters are investigated as a function of time (duration of the catalogue) and versus the number of events used for building up the distribution. Again, β and M _m do not depend on time, but M _m depends on the number of events, reaching a stable value for N ≈ 1000. The only significant change in the parameters is observed for different values of M _0upper in the catalogue, revealing the existence of universality classes.     

Source characterisation of low frequency events at Stromboli and Vulcano Islands (Isole Eolie Italy)

The discussion about the source of low frequency events generally wrecorded on active volcanoes is still open and needs deeper understanding of the phenomena involved in their generation. Most of the models view such a phenomenon as a source effect (oscillation of volcanic fluids in conduits or cracks), although a different explanation as a path or site effect exists. In the present paper we analysed 26 seismic signals recorded at Vulcano and 60 at Stromboli in order to put some constraints on the functional shape of the recorded signals. They evidence all the characteristics of the low frequency events. The spectral analysis reveals sharp peaks in the range 0.5–4 Hz, while the cepstra suggest that the signals are composed by a two-sine kind function. This suggestion is confirmed by the two-dimensional projections of the reconstructed phase space. The correlation dimension of the attractor is very close to 3 for both the volcanoes confirming the existence of a toroidal structure in the phase space. This implies that we can suggest as a model for the low frequency events source a physical mechanism very similar to a Duffing oscillator or any other quasiperiodic one. In particular in the cases of the analysed volcanoes we recognise two independent oscillations.     

Upwards migration of seismic focii: A forerunner of the 1989 eruption of Mt Etna (Italy)

Data from a portable array of three-component digital stations, run at Mt Etna from 1988 to early 1990, highlight the seismic behaviour of the volcano before the 1989 eruption, one of the most significant in terms of energy of the last two decades. After a two-year period of weak and discotinuous seismicity, the depth of the seismically active volumes was observed to become shallower a few months before the volcanic event. The overall migration of the events, inferred by hypocentral locations and decreases of S-P time differences at two stations, agrees with other geophysical forerunners and allows further insights into the changes in the stress field leading to the eruption.