Mid-infrared observations of methanol maser sites and ultracompact H ii regions: signposts of high-mass star formation

N -band (10.5 μm) and/or Q -band (20.0 μm) images taken with MANIAC on the ESO/MPI 2.2-m telescope are presented for 31 methanol maser sites and 19 ultracompact (UC) H  ii regions. Most of the maser sites and UC H  ii regions are coincident with mid-infrared (MIR) sources to within the positional uncertainties of ∼ 3 arcsec, consistent with the maser emission being powered by the MIR source. The IRAS source positions, however, do not always coincide with the MIR sources.
Based on an average infrared spectral energy distribution, we deduce that the MIR objects are luminous enough that they should also produce a strong ionizing radiation. Some sources are consistent with stars of later spectral type, but not all can be. A number of maser sites show no detectable radio continuum emission associated with MIR emission, despite a powering source luminous enough potentially to produce an UC H  ii region. Since no signs of an UC H  ii region are detected here, these maser sites might be produced during a very early stage of stellar evolution.
We present objects that show evidence of outflow activity stemming from a maser site, exhibiting CO and/or CS line profiles indicative of outflows coincident with the MIR source. These cases are promising examples of maser sites signposting the earliest stages of high-mass star formation.     

Tracing the exhumation of the Eclogite Zone (Tauern Window,Eastern Alps) by <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar/<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar dating of white mica in eclogites

New radiometric ages from the Subpenninic nappes (Eclogite Zone and Rote Wand – Modereck Nappe, Tauern Window) show that phengites formed under eclogite-facies metamorphic conditions retain their initial isotopic signature, even when associated lithologies were overprinted by greenschist- to amphibolite-facies metamorphism. Different stages of the eclogite-facies evolution can be dated provided ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating is combined with micro-structural analyses. An age of 39 Ma from the Rote Wand – Modereck Nappe is interpreted to be close to the burial age of this unit. Eclogite deformation within the Eclogite Zone started at the pressure peak along distinct shear zones, and prevailed along the exhumation path. An age of ca. 38 Ma is only observed for eclogites not affected by subsequent deformation and is interpreted as maximum age due to the possible influence of homogenously distributed excess argon. During exhumation deformation was localised along distinct mylonitic shear zones. This stage is mainly characterised by the formation of dynamically recrystallized omphacite2 and phengite. Deformation resulted in the resetting of the Ar isotopic system within the recrystallized white mica. Flat argon release spectra showing ages of 32 Ma within mylonites record the timing of cooling along the exhumation path, and the emplacement onto the Venediger Nappe. Ar-release patterns and ³⁶Ar/⁴⁰Ar vs.³⁹Ar/⁴⁰Ar isotope correlation analyses indicate no significant ⁴⁰Ar-loss after initial closure, and only a negligible incorporation of excess argon. From the pressure peak onwards, eclogitic conditions prevailed for almost 8–10 Ma.     

Modeling of the Guagua Pichincha volcano (Ecuador) lahars

Lahars, here defined as debris flows of volcanic origin, are rapid mass movements that pose a serious threat to cities located in the vicinity of many volcanoes. Quito, capital city of Ecuador and placed at the foot of the Pichincha volcano complex, is exposed to serious inundation hazard as part of the city is built on numerous deposits of large lahars that have occurred in the last 10,000 years.The objective of this paper is to model the potential lahars of the Pichincha volcano to predict inundation areas within the city of Quito. For this purpose two models that apply different approaches were utilized and their results were compared.The programs used were LAHARZ, a semi-empirical model conceived by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), and FLO-2D, a hydraulic model distributed by FLO Software Inc. LAHARZ is designed as a rapid, objective and reproducible automated method for mapping areas of potential lahar inundation (Proc. First Int. Conf. on Debris Flow Hazards Mitigation, San Francisco, USA, ASCE, 1998, p. 176). FLO-2D is a two-dimensional flood routing model for simulating overland flow on complex surfaces such as floodplains, alluvial fans or urbanized areas (FLO-2D Users manual, version 99.2). Both models run within geographical information systems (GIS).Fieldwork was focused on collecting all available information involved in lahar modeling. A total of 49 channel cross-sections were measured along the two main streams and stratigraphic investigations were carried out on the fans to estimate the volume of previous events. A global positioning system was utilized to determine the coordinates of each cross-section. Further data collection concerned topography, rainfall characteristics and ashfall thicknesses. All fieldwork was carried out in cooperation with the Instituto Geofisico of the Escuela Politecnica Nacional.Modeling in a GIS environment greatly aided the exportation of results for the creation of thematic maps and facilitated model comparison. Evaluation of the models was performed by comparing simulation results against each other and against the geometry of existing lahar deposits.     

Centrifuge modelling of the influence of crustal fabrics on the development of transfer zones: insights into the mechanics of continental rifting architecture

Centrifuge analogue experiments are used to model the reactivation of pre-existing crustal fabrics during extension. The models reproduced a weakness zone in the lower crust whose geometry was varied in order to investigate its role in controlling the architecture of rift segments and related transfer zones. The typical rift system geometry was characterised by two offset rift segments connected by a major transfer zone in which boundary faults were oblique to the extension vector and displayed a significant transcurrent component of movement. The transfer zone was also characterised by cross-basin faults with both trend and strike-slip component of movement opposite to that displayed by the master faults. Typically, different structural patterns were obtained by changing the offset angle φ between the rift segments, supporting that the structural pattern at transfer zones is strongly influenced by the orientation of pre-existing discontinuities with respect to the stretching vector. In the models, the aspect ratio (ratio of length vs. width) of the transfer zone shows a positive correlation with the offset angle (i.e., the more the inherited fabric is parallel to the extension direction, the longer and narrower the transfer zones). In case of staircase offset of the rift segments (φ=90°), the structural pattern was characterised by two isolated rift depressions linked by a narrow transfer zone in which border faults with alternating polarity overlapped. Prominent rise of the ductile lower crust was also observed at the transfer zone. Many of these geometrical features display striking similarities with natural rift systems. The results of the current experiments provide useful insights into the mechanics of continental rift architecture, supporting that rift propagation, width and along-axis segmentation may be strongly controlled by the reactivation of pre-existing pervasive crustal fabrics.     

Snow model sensitivity analysis to understand spatial and temporal snow dynamics in a high‐elevation catchment

In this paper, we addressed a sensitivity analysis of the snow module of the GEOtop2.0 model at point and catchment scale in a small high‐elevation catchment in the Eastern Italian Alps (catchment size: 61 km²). Simulated snow depth and snow water equivalent at the point scale were compared with measured data at four locations from 2009 to 2013. At the catchment scale, simulated snow‐covered area (SCA) was compared with binary snow cover maps derived from moderate‐resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat satellite imagery. Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the effect of different model parameterizations on model performance at both scales and the effect of different thresholds of simulated snow depth on the agreement with MODIS data. Our results at point scale indicated that modifying only the “snow correction factor” resulted in substantial improvements of the snow model and effectively compensated inaccurate winter precipitation by enhancing snow accumulation. SCA inaccuracies at catchment scale during accumulation and melt period were affected little by different snow depth thresholds when using calibrated winter precipitation from point scale. However, inaccuracies were strongly controlled by topographic characteristics and model parameterizations driving snow albedo (“snow ageing coefficient” and “extinction of snow albedo”) during accumulation and melt period. Although highest accuracies (overall accuracy = 1 in 86% of the catchment area) were observed during winter, lower accuracies (overall accuracy < 0.7) occurred during the early accumulation and melt period (in 29% and 23%, respectively), mostly present in areas with grassland and forest, slopes of 20–40°, areas exposed NW or areas with a topographic roughness index of ?0.25 to 0 m. These findings may give recommendations for defining more effective model parameterization strategies and guide future work, in which simulated and MODIS SCA may be combined to generate improved products for SCA monitoring in Alpine catchments.     

Science-based approach for credible accounting of mitigation in managed forests

Background

The credibility and effectiveness of country climate targets under the Paris Agreement requires that, in all greenhouse gas (GHG) sectors, the accounted mitigation outcomes reflect genuine deviations from the type and magnitude of activities generating emissions in the base year or baseline. This is challenging for the forestry sector, as the future net emissions can change irrespective of actual management activities, because of age-related stand dynamics resulting from past management and natural disturbances. The solution implemented under the Kyoto Protocol (2013–2020) was accounting mitigation as deviation from a projected (forward-looking) “forest reference level”, which considered the age-related dynamics but also allowed including the assumed future implementation of approved policies. This caused controversies, as unverifiable counterfactual scenarios with inflated future harvest could lead to credits where no change in management has actually occurred, or conversely, failing to reflect in the accounts a policy-driven increase in net emissions. Instead, here we describe an approach to set reference levels based on the projected continuation of documented historical forest management practice, i.e. reflecting age-related dynamics but not the future impact of policies. We illustrate a possible method to implement this approach at the level of the European Union (EU) using the Carbon Budget Model.

Results

Using EU country data, we show that forest sinks between 2013 and 2016 were greater than that assumed in the 2013–2020 EU reference level under the Kyoto Protocol, which would lead to credits of 110–120 Mt CO₂/year (capped at 70–80 Mt CO₂/year, equivalent to 1.3% of 1990 EU total emissions). By modelling the continuation of management practice documented historically (2000–2009), we show that these credits are mostly due to the inclusion in the reference levels of policy-assumed harvest increases that never materialized. With our proposed approach, harvest is expected to increase (12% in 2030 at EU-level, relative to 2000–2009), but more slowly than in current forest reference levels, and only because of age-related dynamics, i.e. increased growing stocks in maturing forests.

Conclusions

Our science-based approach, compatible with the EU post-2020 climate legislation, helps to ensure that only genuine deviations from the continuation of historically documented forest management practices are accounted toward climate targets, therefore enhancing the consistency and comparability across GHG sectors. It provides flexibility for countries to increase harvest in future reference levels when justified by age-related dynamics. It offers a policy-neutral solution to the polarized debate on forest accounting (especially on bioenergy) and supports the credibility of forest sector mitigation under the Paris Agreement.

     

Backward automatic calibration for three-dimensional landslide models

Back-analysis is broadly used for approaching geotechnical problems when monitoring data are available and information about the soils properties is of poor quality.For landslide stability assessment back-analysis calibration is usually carried out by time consuming trial-and-error procedure.This paper presents a new automatic Decision Support System that supports the selection of the soil parameters for three-dimensional models of landslides based on monitoring data.The method considering a pool of possible solutions,generated through permutation of soil parameters,selects the best ten configurations that are more congruent with the measured displacements.This reduces the operator biases while on the other hand allows the operator to control each step of the computation.The final selection of the preferred solution among the ten best-fitting solutions is carried out by an operator.The operator control is necessary as he may include in the final decision process all the qualitative elements that cannot be included in a qualitative analysis but nevertheless characterize a landslide dynamic as a whole epistemological subject,for example on the base of geomorphological evidence.A landslide located in Northeast Italy has been selected as example for showing the system potentiality.The proposed method is straightforward,scalable and robust and could be useful for researchers and practitioners.     

Magma chambers and localization of deformation during thrusting

Terra Nova, 22, 390–395, 2010 Abstract We present the results of coupled analogue and numerical models that provide new insights into the relationships between volcanoes and thrusts. The effects of both upper‐crustal magma chambers and the load of volcanoes on the geometry of thrust systems were investigated. Analogue modelling points to a strong influence exerted by a magma chamber on thrust geometry, which, as suggested by the numerical models used to rationalize these results, is related to the stress redistribution around the weak heterogeneity. The low‐viscosity body below a volcanic edifice localizes compressional deformation and causes a curvature of the thrusts towards the magma chamber, opposite to the direction of tectonic transport. In these conditions, the volcanic load has a negligible effect on the structural geometry. These results are in contrast with those of previous studies, where intrusions or the load of major volcanoes generated a curvature of the thrusts away from volcanic edifices in the direction of tectonic transport.