Simulation of a long-lived meso-β scale convective system over the mediterranean coast of Spain. Part II: Sensitivity to external forcings

Summary The numerical simulation of a long-lived, stationary mesoscale convective system (MCS) already described in a previous paper (Fernández et al., 1995) is analyzed in greater detail. The influence of various external forcings, such as sea surface temperature, local orography or terrain roughness, upon the characteristics of the system is studied. This analysis makes it possible not only to identify the most important factors, but also to deduce the importance of some other internal forcings and to propose explanations for some dynamic features of the system that were difficult to understand. Hence, the sensitivity test methodology applied seems to be a useful tool to clarify the complex dynamics of some moist convective events. In the modelled MCS, sea surface temperature and orography are identified as key factors. The results also indicate that the upstream triggering of convection provoked by an orographic blocking effect is the main cause of the development of the system, while upslope triggering plays a secondary role.With 18 Figures     

Oil dispersal modelling: reanalysis of the Rena oil spill using open-source modelling tools

ABSTRACT

Oil spill forecast modelling is typically used immediately after a spill to predict oil dispersal and promote mobilisation of more effective response operations. The aim of this work was to map oil dispersal after the grounding of the MV Rena on Astrolabe Reef and to verify the results against observations. Model predictions were broadly consistent with observed distribution of oil contamination. However, some hot spots of oil accumulation, likely due to surf-zone and rip current circulation, were not well represented. Additionally, the model was run with 81 differing wind conditions to show that the events occurring during the grounding represented the typical likely behaviour of an oil spill on Astrolabe Reef. Oil dispersal was highly dependent on prevailing wind patterns; more accurate prediction would require better observations of local wind patterns. However, comparison of predictions with observations indicated that the GNOME model was an effective low-cost approach.     

Internal variability of regional climate models

 Two regional climate models have been applied to the task of generating an ensemble of realizations of the year 1982 with observed boundary conditions in areas covering parts of the Mediterranean countries. These realizations were generated by applying boundary conditions from the ECMWF ERA reanalysis project consecutively, carrying over the soil variables from the regional models from one iteration to the next. Monthly mean fields for six iterations of each model have been used as statistical ensembles in order to investigate the internal variability of the regional model dynamics. This internal variability is a necessary consequence of the non-linear physical feedback mechanisms of the RCM being active. A small value of internal variability will give better statistics for climate sensitivity signals, but will make these results less credible. The internal variability is important for the quantitative assessment of a climate sensitivity signal. With the present choice of models and integration domains the internal variabilities of surface fields and precipitation do reach levels that are less than, but in summer of comparable order of magnitude to, corresponding atmospheric variabilities of an atmospheric general circulation model. Received: 26 October 1999 / Accepted: 18 December 2000     

Über Gebirgszusammenhänge in den mitteleuropäischen Varistischen ketten (Geosynklinale und Lineament)

Zusammenfassung Die Wirksamkeit der beiden großen NNW- und NNE-streichenden Lineamente im mitteleuropäischen Bereich tritt in der Weiterentwicklung der varistischen Geosynklinale zurück. Im Unterkarbon — für die nördlichen Teile im Oberkarbon — sind sie weitgehend ausgelöscht. Mit dem Aufdringen der Granite treten sie wieder in Erscheinung, um im Perm die epirogene und orogene Entwicklung erneut zu beherrschen.     

In vitro screening for endocrine disruptive activity in selected South African harbours and river mouths

Various waterborne anthropogenic contaminants disrupt the endocrine systems of wildlife and humans, targeting reproductive pathways, among others. Very little is known, however, regarding the occurrence of endocrine disruptive activity in South African freshwater ecosystems, and coastal ecosystems have not been studied in this regard. In a first attempt to investigate endocrine disruptive activity in South African coastal waters, surface water samples collected from harbours, river mouths and estuaries in three metropolitan municipalities, eThekwini (which includes Durban), Nelson Mandela (specifically Port Elizabeth Harbour) and City of Cape Town, were screened for (anti) oestrogenicity and (anti)androgenicity using recombinant yeast bioassays. Moreover, levels of the female hormone 17β-(o)estradiol (E2) were determined in all samples, as well as a selection of hydrocarbons in the eThekwini samples. A high proportion of samples collected from eThekwini were oestrogenic, whereas none from Port Elizabeth Harbour and only a single river mouth sampled in the City of Cape Town were oestrogenic. E2 was detected in all the samples tested, but at higher concentrations at the eThekwini and City of Cape Town localities than Port Elizabeth Harbour. In addition, the recombinant yeast assays revealed that anti-androgenicity was widespread, being detected in the majority of samples screened apart from those representing Port Elizabeth Harbour. Conversely, no anti-oestrogenic or androgenic activity was detected. Anti-androgenicity did not associate with hydrocarbon loads, providing evidence that other anti-androgens were responsible for the observed activity. The present data suggest potential reproductive disruption in marine and estuarine fauna inhabiting the eThekwini and City of Cape Town regions.     

Assessment of the ecological quality status of soft-bottoms in Reunion Island (tropical Southwest Indian Ocean) using AZTI marine biotic indices

The ability of the two synthetic marine biotic indices, AMBI and M-AMBI, to account for changes in the ecological quality of coastal soft bottoms of Reunion Island according to disturbances was assessed from macrobenthic samples collected in five sectors between 1994 and 2004. Samples were collected under non-perturbed conditions and at two sites subjected to heavy organic enrichment. Both indices are based on a classification of macrofauna into ecological groups (EG), and their transfer to tropical waters required some adaptations. These indices proved efficient in detecting a degradation of habitat quality. Their use resulted in the classification of all sites sampled between 1996 and 1998 as "good" or "high". M-AMBI nevertheless tended to result in the attribution of a slightly worse ecological quality status than AMBI. Together with an update of the EG species list for the Indian Ocean area, our results support the extension of both indices for the assessment of tropical soft bottoms.     

Simulation of a long-lived meso-β scale convective system over the mediterranean coast of spain. Part I: Numerical predictability

Summary An unusually long-lived (33 hours), devastating (local maximum rainfall rate over 800 mm/24 hr) meso--scale (diameter smaller than 200 km) convective system that occurred over the Mediterranean coast of Spain has been simulated reasonably well by means of a regional numerical model. Several runs of the model including parameterized convection and boundary conditions of varying degrees of complexity have been performed. In most of these experiments, the main characteristics of the event, namely its, stationarity and duration, are captured. The direct relationship between the Lagrangian lifetime of a meteorological system and its degree of deturministic predictability seems to be corroborated by the results: It appears that the meso--scale forcing that preceded and favoured the MCS was especially well predictable, and once initiated, the simulated MCS seems to have several feedback mechanisms helping to extend its life. Results are encouraging, because they reveal that it might be possible to predict very severe episodes of small MCSs such as the one shown here sufficiently in advance.With 15 Figures     

Post-injection trapping of mobile CO<Subscript><Emphasis Type="Bold">2</Emphasis></Subscript> in deep aquifers: Assessing the importance of model and parameter uncertainties

Predicting the fate of the injected CO₂ is crucial for the safety of carbon storage operations in deep saline aquifers: especially the evolution of the position, the spreading and the quantity of the mobile CO₂ plume during and after the injection has to be understood to prevent any loss of containment. Fluid flow modelling is challenging not only given the uncertainties on subsurface formation intrinsic properties (parameter uncertainty) but also on the modelling choices/assumptions for representing and numerically implementing the processes occurring when CO₂ displaces the native brine (model uncertainty). Sensitivity analysis is needed to identify the group of factors which contributes the most to the uncertainties in the predictions. In this paper, we present an approach for assessing the importance of model and parameter uncertainties regarding post-injection trapping of mobile CO₂. This approach includes the representation of input parameters, the choice of relevant simulation outputs, the assessment of the mobile plume evolution with a flow simulator and the importance ranking for input parameters. A variance-based sensitivity analysis is proposed, associated with the ACOSSO-like meta-modelling technique to tackle the issues linked with the computational burden posed by the use of long-running simulations and with the different types of uncertainties to be accounted for (model and parameter). The approach is tested on a potential site for CO₂ storage in the Paris basin (France) representative of a project in preliminary stage of development. The approach provides physically sound outcomes despite the challenging context of the case study. In addition, these outcomes appear very helpful for prioritizing the future characterisation efforts and monitoring requirements, and for simplifying the modelling exercise.