Strong historical earthquakes in the northwestern Issyk Kul’ basin (northern Tien Shan)

The northern Tien Shan is the northern front of the Himalayan mountain belt, which resulted from the collision between the Indian and Eurasian Plates. This region encompasses the most active seismic zones of the orogen, which generated the strongest (M > 8) earthquakes. Since there are scarcely any written accounts, the only way to trace back strong earthquakes is the paleoseismologic method. Since 1984 we have been studying the northwestern Issyk Kul’ basin, where there are differently directed anticlines, which constitute the Kungei meganticline. Here, several active tectonic structures (faults, folds) are located, whose development was accompanied by strong earthquakes. Our field studies of 2008 in the Iiri-Taldybulak Valley, along the adyrs (foothills) of the Kungei-Ala-Too Range, revealed two unknown historical earthquakes. The first one, which occurred along the southern rupture in the late 7th century A.D., gave rise to a seismic scarp; the latter broke through the river floodplain and a tash-koro (ancient settlement). The second one, which occurred along the northern rupture in the late 9th century A.D., increased the height of the seismic scarp, existing on the Early Holocene and older terraces. Note that this region already records a strong seismic event around 500 A.D. Archeologic data have revealed one more strong earthquake, which took place in the 14th century A.D. Note that the above-mentioned strong seismic events are coeval with the decline of the nomadic cultures (Wusun, Turkic, Mogul) in the northern Tien Shan and Zhetysu (Semirech’e).     

Simulations of the 2004 lava flow at Etna volcano using the magflow cellular automata model

Since the mechanical properties of lava change over time, lava flows represent a challenge for physically based modeling. This change is ruled by a temperature field which needs to be modeled. MAGFLOW Cellular Automata (CA) model was developed for physically based simulations of lava flows in near real-time. We introduced an algorithm based on the Monte Carlo approach to solve the anisotropic problem. As transition rule of CA, a steady-state solution of Navier-Stokes equations was adopted in the case of isothermal laminar pressure-driven Bingham fluid. For the cooling mechanism, we consider only the radiative heat loss from the surface of the flow and the change of the temperature due to mixture of lavas between cells with different temperatures. The model was applied to reproduce a real lava flow that occurred during the 2004–2005 Etna eruption. The simulations were computed using three different empirical relationships between viscosity and temperature.     

Assessment of toxicological status of a SW Mediterranean segment population of striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba) using skin biopsy

Various studies have revealed high concentrations of contaminants such as organochlorines (OCs) and heavy metals in Mediterranean cetaceans. A geographical trend of contamination (PCBs and DDTs) has been found for striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba). In this study we used a non-lethal approach (skin biopsy) to investigate bioaccumulation of OCs, including polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs), DDTs, polychlorodibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorodibenzofurans (PCDFs), trace elements (Hg, Cd, Pb) and CYP1A activity (BPMO) in nine striped dolphins sampled in the Aeolian area (Sicily – Italy) in summer 2002. The arithmetic mean value of BPMO activity in this group was 43.46 AUF/g tissue/h. This value is approximately 3 times and 5 times lower, respectively, than the value found in the Ionian and in the Ligurian groups. Skin biopsies of striped dolphins emerged as a suitable material for assessing the toxicological status of the various Mediterranean groups.     

Strong Earthquakes on the Southern Slope of the Kungei Ala-Too Range,Northern Tien Shan,and Their Structural Position in the Earth’s Crust

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - The morphostructures and paleoseismicity of the southern slope of the Kungei Ala-Too Range (Northern Tien Shan) have been studied. It has been found...     

Archeoseismological investigation of the Kurmenty medieval settlement site,northeastern Issyk-Kul region,Kyrgyzstan

Archeoseismological studies of the Kurmenty settlement have proved the seismogenic origin of the deformation in the walls at this site. The radiocarbon age of the first seismic event damaged the walls of the settlement is 7th century AD. The second seismic event occurred a few centuries later, probably in the late Middle Ages. The strongest seismic events of North Tien Shan occurred in the late 19th–early 20th century as the Chilik (1889, M = 8.4) and Kebin (1911, M = 7.9) also damaged the walls of the Kurmenty settlement. The local shaking intensity during these seismic events was I ≥ VII on MSK-64 scale.     

Strong Paleoearthquakes along the Aksuu Border Fault according to the Results of Dating the Offset Terrace Complex of the Chon-Aksuu River,Northern Tien Shan

The study and radiocarbon dating of the low alluvial terraces of the Chon-Aksuu River, in the Northern Issyk-Kul region, which were broken by the Kebin (Kemin) earthquake of 1911 (Ms = 8.2, Io = 10 to 11), are carried out. The obtained radiocarbon dated ages refer to the second half of the Holocene. Since that time, at least eight strong earthquakes took place along this (Chon-Aksuu) segment of the Aksuu border fault. Three seismic events, including the earthquake of 1911 occurred in the second millennium A.D. This outburst of seismic energy was preceded by two millennia of seismic quiescence, which set in after another pulse of seismic activation. The latter lasted for 1.5 millennia and included five strong earthquakes. The recurrence period of seismic events during the activations is 300–600 years. Hence, the seismic regime along the Chon–Aksuu segment of the Aksuu border fault in the second half of the Holocene was a succession of two seismic activations, each with a duration of 1.0–1.5 ka, which were separated by a 2-ka interval of seismic quiescence. Therefore, the absolute datings of the river terraces of different ages which have been broken by a seismogenic rupture can serve as a reliable source of information about the age of the strong earthquakes that occurred along the seismogenic fault.     

Archaeoseismological studies and structural position of the medieval earthquakes in the South of the Issyk-Kul depression (Tien Shan)

We carried out archaeoseismological studies in the Southern Issyk-Kul region (Kyrgyz Tien Shan) and obtained radiocarbon datings of the collected samples. These data suggest that the sources of strong earthquakes have occurred in this territory in the 11th and (probably) 16th centuries. These earthquakes had magnitude M ≥ 7 and seismic intensity of at least I ≥ 9. The sources of these earthquakes were associated with the local adyr (piedmont) faults—components of the Pre-Terskei border fault. Our results demonstrate considerable underestimation of the seismic hazard for the South Issyk-Kul region in the latest Seismic Zoning Map of Kyrgyz Republic (2012), which should be taken into account in the construction of the new seismic zoning map for Kyrgyzstan.     

Strong Medieval Earthquake in the Northern Issyk-Kul Lake Region (Tien Shan): Results of Paleoseismological and Archeoseismological Studies

A number of archeological monuments in the northern Issyk-Kul Lake region (Tien Shan) in the basins of the Chet-Koysuu and Chon-Koysuu rivers are studied. All monuments have undergone significant seismogenic deformations and destructions. A cromlech (7th century BC to 8th centuries AD) was displaced along the sinistral strike-slip fault. A kurgan (7th–13th centuries AD) was deformed in a front of the reverse fault scarp. A fortress (14th–15th centuries AD) was submerged beneath the lake water during the catastrophic subsidence of the coastal zone. We identify a zone of the seismogenic rupture. It is located along the Kultor border fault, which separates the Issyk-Kul depression and its surrounding mountains (Kungey Ala-Too Range). During the earthquake, the seismogenic reverse fault scarp was formed. A total of 1.6 m was offset along the rupture, which corresponds to an earthquake with М _S ≥ 7 and seismic intensity of I ₀ ≥ IX. Judging by numerous radiocarbon datings of submerged wood, which was used in building the fortress (end of 14th to the beginning of 15th centuries AD), the earthquake occurred in the 16th century AD and could have caused the decline of the Mogul civilization in the northern Issyk-Kul Lake region.     

Lava flow simulations using discharge rates from thermal infrared satellite imagery during the 2006 Etna eruption

Techniques capable of measuring lava discharge rates during an eruption are important for hazard prediction, warning, and mitigation. To this end, we developed an automated system that uses thermal infrared satellite MODIS data to estimate time-averaged discharge rate. MODIS-derived time-varying discharge rates were used to drive lava flow simulations calculated using the MAGFLOW cellular automata model, allowing us to simulate the discharge rate-dependent spread of lava as a function of time. During the July 2006 eruption of Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy), discharge rates were estimated at regular intervals (i.e., up to 2 times/day) using the MODIS data. The eruption lasted 10 days and produced a ~3-km-long lava flow field. Time-averaged discharge rates extracted from 13 MODIS images were utilized to produce a detailed chronology of lava flow emplacement, demonstrating how infrared satellite data can be used to drive numerical simulations of lava flow paths during an ongoing eruptive event. The good agreement between simulated and mapped flow areas indicates that model-based inundation predictions, driven by time-varying discharge rate data, provide an excellent means for assessing the hazard posed by ongoing effusive eruptions.     

The sedimentary record of the Issyk Kul basin,Kyrgyzstan: climatic and tectonic inferences

A broad array of new provenance and stable isotope data are presented from two magnetostratigraphically dated sections in the south‐eastern Issyk Kul basin of the Central Kyrgyz Tien Shan. The results presented here are discussed and interpreted for two plausible magnetostratigraphic age models. A combination of zircon U‐Pb provenance, paleocurrent and conglomerate clast count analyses is used to determine sediment provenance. This analysis reveals that the first coarse‐grained, syn‐tectonic sediments (Dzhety Oguz formation) were sourced from the nearby Terskey Range, supporting previous thermochronology‐based estimates of a ca. 25–20 Ma onset of deformation in the range. Climate variations are inferred using carbonate stable isotope (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C) data from 53 samples collected in the two sections and are compared with the oxygen isotope compositions of modern water from 128 samples. Two key features are identified in the stable isotope data set derived from the sediments: (1) isotope values, in particular δ¹³C, decrease between ca. 26.0 and 23.6 or 25.6 and 21.0 Ma, and (2) the scatter of δ¹⁸O values increased significantly after ca. 22.6 or 16.9 Ma. The first feature is interpreted to reflect progressively wetter conditions. Because this feature slightly post‐dates the onset of deformation in the Terskey Range, we suggest that it has been caused by orographically enhanced precipitation, implying that surface uplift accompanied late Cenozoic deformation and rock uplift in the Terskey Range. The increased scatter could reflect variable moisture source or availability caused by global climate change following the onset of Miocene glaciations at ca. 22.6 Ma, or enhanced evaporation during the Mid‐Miocene climatic optimum at ca. 17–15 Ma.