Monitoring and prediction of land use/land cover changes using CA-Markov model: a case study of Ravansar County in Iran

Human‐induced land use/land cover (LULC) changes are among the most important processes that shape the dynamics of the earth’s surface. This phenomenon, which is occurring at an astonishing rate, and its consequential environmental impacts have become an important area of research for scientists.Therefore, a wide range of methods and models have been developed to detect and predict these alterations, among which cellular automata (CA) models such as the CA‐Markov model, due to their affinity to geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS), are appropriate for detailed resolution modelling and simulating dynamic spatial processes. In Iran, the district of Ravansar has undergone severe LULC changes recently, thus to take the necessary precautions, decision‐makers need to predict and determine the extent of these changes. In this study, using spatial analysis methods the LULC changes in Ravansar were investigated from 1992 to 2015. Subsequently, the CA‐Markov model was applied to simulate the spatial pattern changes of LULC until 2030. Our results indicated that from 1992 to 2015, this region has witnessed a noticeable increase in the areas of the built‐up and agricultural lands (both aquatic and non‐aquatic), resulting in the decrease of the gardens, range, and bare lands. The simulated LULC map showed that this trend will continue due to more urbanization and development of agricultural areas.     

Numerical ANFIS-Based Formulation for Prediction of the Ultimate Axial Load Bearing Capacity of Piles Through CPT Data

This study explores the potential of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) for prediction of the ultimate axial load bearing capacity of piles (P_u) using cone penetration test (CPT) data. In this regard, a reliable previously published database composed of 108 datasets was selected to develop ANFIS models. The collected database contains information regarding pile geometry, material, installation, full-scale static pile load test and CPT results for each sample. Reviewing the literature, several common and uncommon variables have been considered for direct or indirect estimation of P_u based on static pile load test, cone penetration test data or other in situ or laboratory testing methods. In present study, the pile shaft and tip area, the average cone tip resistance along the embedded length of the pile, the average cone tip resistance over influence zone and the average sleeve friction along the embedded length of the pile which are obtained from CPT data are considered as independent input variables where the output variable is P_u for the ANFIS model development. Besides, a notable criticism about ANFIS as a prediction tool is that it does not provide practical prediction equations. To tackle this issue, the obtained optimal ANFIS model is represented as a tractable equation which can be used via spread sheet software or hand calculations to provide precise predictions of P_u with the calculated correlation coefficient of 0.96 between predicted and experimental values for all of the data in this study. Considering several criteria, it is represented that the proposed model is able to estimate the output with a high degree of accuracy as compared to those results obtained by some direct CPT-based methods in the literature. Furthermore, in order to assess the capability of the proposed model from geotechnical engineering viewpoints, sensitivity and parametric analyses are done.     

SWAT‐simulated hydrological impact of land‐use change in the Zanjanrood basin,Northwest Iran

Understanding the impacts of land‐use changes on hydrology at the watershed scale can facilitate development of sustainable water resource strategies. This paper investigates the hydrological effects of land‐use change in Zanjanrood basin, Iran. The water balance was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (AVSWAT2000). Model calibration and uncertainty analysis were performed with sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI‐2). Simulation results from January 1998 to December 2002 were used for parameter calibration, and then the model was validated for the period of January 2003 to December 2004. The predicted monthly streamflow matched the observed values: during calibration the correlation coefficient was 0·86 and the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient 0·79, compared with 0·80 and 0·79, respectively, during validation. The model was used to simulate the main components of the hydrological cycle, in order to study the effects of land‐use changes in 1967, 1994 and 2007. The study reveals that during 1967 a 34·5% decrease of grassland with concurrent increases of shrubland (13·9%), rain‐fed agriculture (12·1%), bare ground (5·5%) irrigated agriculture (2·2%), and urban area (0·7%) led to a 33% increase in the amount of surface runoff and a 22% decrease in the groundwater recharge. Furthermore, the area of sub‐basins that was influenced by high runoff (14–28 mm) increased. The results indicate that the hydrological response to overgrazing and the replacing of rangelands (grassland and shrubland) with rain‐fed agriculture and bare ground (badlands) is nonlinear and exhibits a threshold effect. The runoff rises dramatically when more than 60% of the rangeland is removed. For groundwater this threshold lies at an 80% decrease in rangeland. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stiffness identification of a tall building during construction period using ambient tests

Ambient response measurements were made on an eighteen-storey building at three different stages of construction to detect any changes in the frequencies, mode shapes and stiffness with construction. The first nine frequencies and corresponding mode shapes for each stage of construction are found. A comparison is made among these mode shapes and frequencies and with the mode shapes and frequencies of an analytical model incorporating beams, columns, shear walls, panels and diagonal elements. The added effects, on frequencies and mode shapes, of non-structural elements such as stairs, elevators, claddings and partition walls are studied. Using Improved Statistical Structural Identification, an attempt is made to study the stiffening effect of non-structural elements by updating the stiffness matrix of the building.     

Evaluation of the “fishing down marine food web” process in the north-west of Persian Gulf(Khuzestan Province) during the period of 2002–2011

The worldwide increase in commercial fisheries and its impact on ecosystems as well as inefficient fishery management have led to overfishing and frequent breakdown of traditional fish stocks.In this context,an analysis of Khuzestan inshore fisheries data covering the years 2002–2011,was conducted in reliance on testing for occurrence of the fishing down marine food webs(FDMFW) phenomenon in the North of Persian Gulf Large Marine Ecosystem(LME).In this study,the mean trophic level(m TL) and the fishing-in-balance(FIB)-index of Khuzestan landings during this period of time were estimated using the trophic level of 47 fishery resources.Increase in total landings(Y) was observed,which explained the high fishing yield in major fishery resources(especially demersal).Moreover,the moderates decreasing trend in m TL per decade,and the increasing trend in FIB-index were observed.The status of fishery resources in Khuzestan inshore waters(under exploited but not overexploited),the rise in Y,FIB and slightly drop in m TL can be considered as indirect indicators of the fishing impacts on the trophic structure of marine communities.Based on this result,probability occurrence of FDMFW process in Khuzestan inshore waters is low to some extent.However,we suggest that the goal of management programs in Khuzestan inshore waters should prevent the continuance of this trend in the long-term using an ecosystem-based approach.     

Evaluation,characterization and analytical application of a new composite material for removing metal ions from wastewater

A new organic/inorganic composite based on polyacrylonitrile and stannic molybdophosphate (PAN–SMP) as an adsorbent was synthesized under various conditions. The physicochemical properties of this material were specified by elemental analysis, scanning electron microscopy, infrared spectroscopy and thermogravimetry studies. The synthesized material was found to be stable in demineralized water, in dilute acids, under gamma radiation up to the total radiated of 100 kGy doses and in high temperature up to 500 °C. Ion exchange capacity of the synthesized composite and its distribution coefficient (K _d) for several metal ions were determined. The results showed that PAN–SMP has a great affinity toward some metal ions such as T^l+, Sr²⁺, Ba²⁺, UO₂ ²⁺ and La⁴⁺. Based on the determined K _d values, two binary quantitative separations of metal ions (Cr⁶⁺ from Cu²⁺ and Pb²⁺ from Cu²⁺) have been achieved on columns of this ion exchanger. The ability of PAN–SMP to decontaminate low-level liquid waste was also investigated.     

Evaluation of Air Pollution Trend Using GIS and RS Applications in South West of Iran

In this paper, remote sensing and GIS have been used to assess the status of NO₂ at the south west of Iran. 221 data about concentration of NO₂ was extracted from Ozone Monitoring Instrument. Ordinary kriging and inverse distance weighting interpolation methods was used to interpolate data. Results showed that ordinary kriging method using cross-validation have had less error. North east of the study area has the highest concentration of NO₂ (329 molecule/cm²) and the concentration of NO₂ decreases from north east to South west of the study area. On the other hand, data trend results showed that the data seems to exhibit a fairly strong trend in the east west direction and a weaker one in the north–south direction.     

印度河扇水道堤岸外侧更新世沉积物波发育特征与形成过程分析*

印度河扇更新世发育的沉积物波结构复杂、形态多样,其形成过程的认识程度低。本次研究通过高分辨率地震数据和地震解释技术,研究了印度河扇沉积物波的波长、形态、波峰变化等形态特征;阐述了沉积物波与沉积物变形特征的差异、识别了两者的区分标志;总结了水道堤岸斜坡和区域斜坡上沉积物波的分布规律;在此基础上,讨论了沉积物波的形成机理和控制因素,分析了沉积物波的形成过程,并建立了印度河扇沉积物波的形成模式。研究表明: (1)研究区沉积物波波长平均为486.84 m,最大1473 m;波高在10~60 m之间,平均30 m。(2)沉积物波的形态有对称型和非对称型,其迁移方式有上坡迁移型、加积型和下坡迁移型;沉积物波主要发育在水道堤岸的斜坡上,在区域斜坡上也发育少量的沉积物波,这2种沉积物波波脊的走向差异很大,水道堤岸斜坡上的沉积物波主要分布于水道凹岸堤岸的外侧,距离水道越远其规模(波长、波高)越小,波脊走向近于NE-SW方向,与水道的走向平行或斜交;区域斜坡上的沉积物波波脊的走向多为NW-SE向,平行于区域斜坡的走向,离源区越远规模越大。(3)水道堤岸斜坡上的沉积物波是由水道型浊流在离心力的作用下,溢出水道的凹岸,在堤岸外侧的斜坡上沉积形成的,堤岸斜坡的角度对沉积物波的发育规模影响不大,浊流的强度和输沙量对其规模影响大;区域斜坡上发育的沉积物波是由顺坡而下的非水道化的浊流沉积形成;滑塌变形造成的起伏地貌以及早期沉积物波的存在,也都影响了后期沉积物波的发育。     

Unconfined Compression Strength of Polymer Stabilized Forest Soil Clay

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - Due to undesired mechanical characteristics, some forest soils cause problems in road construction. Several methods have been proposed for stabilizing...