Effect of Poissonos ratio on stress state in the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake fault

The Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake occurred on the Longmenshan fault which inclines at a dip angle exceeding 60 degrees. Since most thrust earthquakes occur on faults with dip angles of about 30 degrees, it is enigmatic why the Wenchuan earthquake occurred on such a steep fault. In this study we use a simple finite element model to investigate how the stress state in the fault changes with the variation of Poisson's ratio. The results show that, with the Poisson's ratio in the fault increasing, the magnitudes of the principal stresses increase and the maximum shear stress decrease, and, especially, the angle between the maximum principal stress and the fault plane decreases, which will enhance the driving force to overcome the frictional resistance on the fault. The increase of Poisson's ratio in the fault may be an important factor to affect the occurrence of the fault earthquakes with large angles between maximum principal stress and fault plane.

     

Preliminary analysis of earthquake probability based on the synthetic seismic catalog

The analysis of seismic hazards relies on the statistical analysis of historical seismic data and the instrumental seismic catalog to obtain the regional earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake probability. The accuracy of analysis thus depends strongly on the completeness of the seismic data used. However, available seismic catalogs are too short or incomplete for the reliable analysis of the statistical characteristics of earthquakes. If a long-term synthetic seismic catalog can be generated using a physics-based numerical simulation, and the simulation results match the crustal deformation, seismicity, and other observations,then such a synthetic catalog helps us to further understand the characteristics of seismic activity and analyze the regional seismic hazard. In this paper, taking the northeastern Tibetan Plateau as a case study, we establish a three-dimensional visco-elastoplastic finite-element model to simulate earthquake cycles and the spatiotemporal evolution of earthquakes on the model fault system and obtain a seismic catalog on a time scale of tens of thousands of years. On the basis that the model satisfies the regional geodynamics of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, we analyze seismicity on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau using the simulated synthetic earthquake catalog. The characteristics of earthquake recurrence at different locations and different magnitudes, and the long-term average probability of earthquake occurrence within the fault system on the northeastern Tibetan plateau are studied. The results are a reference for regional seismic hazard assessment and provide a basis for the physics-based numerical prediction of earthquakes.     

BD-2在轨卫星钟性能分析

选取3颗不同轨道的BD-2在轨卫星，以其星载主钟某些时段测量的星地无线电双向时间比对钟差数据为基础，计算频率准确度、稳定度和漂移率。结果表明，BD-2在轨卫星钟的频率准确度优于10-11量级，频率稳定度优于10-13量级，频率漂移率优于10-14量级。其中，GEO-1卫星即将到达系统的设计运行寿命，但其卫星钟的各项性能指标计算结果均符合设计要求，未影响北斗二号系统的服务质量。     

山东省寿光市土壤中有机氯农药残留分布及来源解析

寿光市土壤中六六六(HCHs)和滴滴涕(DDTs)均有残留。六六六(HCHs)检出率为27.64%,主要残留物为γ-HCH和δ-HCH,平均残留率分别为0.65×10~(-9)和0.50×10~(-9);滴滴涕(DDTs)检出率为59.35%,主要残留物为p,p′-DDE和p,p′-DDT,平均残留率分别为5.21×10~(-9),5.20×10~(-9)。残留量较国内多数其他地区低,仅DDTs稍高于香港土壤和黄淮海地区农田。按土壤环境质量评价标准,HCHs属于一类土壤,DDTs一类土壤占比90.41%,二类土壤占比9.56%。通过对HCHs和DDTs各组分残留量进行比较,寿光市HCHs和DDTs使用时间较久远,多数已降解,但仍有部分地区可能使用过林丹,部分地区有新外源DDTs污染输入。     

潍坊城市地质环境质量综合评价

该文在充分收集以往资料的基础上,结合潍坊城市地质调查项目获得的原始数据,进行了工程建设适宜性、区域地壳稳定性、地下水质量、地下水富水性等单地质环境要素评价,采用层次分析法和综合指数法,对潍坊市城市地质环境质量进行了综合评价研究。潍坊市城市地质环境质量分为好区、较好区、较差区和差区等4个等级,好区面积350.39km~2,主要分布于城区北部一带;较好区面积562.68km~2,主要分布于质量好区外围;较差区面积1 004.70km~2,主要分布于央子街办外围及峡山水库一带;差区面积687.23km~2,主要分布于北部沿海区域及萧家营、老坊子区一带。     

聊城市人工影响天气业务体系建设探讨

针对聊城市自开展人工影响天气工作13年来发展过程中存在的问题和今后聊城市人工影响天气业务体系建设进行探讨。提出聊城市人工影响天气基地建设的基本思路和现代化作业水平提高的主要途径。以业务技术系统、效果检验系统和作业点监测系统为依托,强化人才培养,加强规范化作业,取得较高的社会和经济效益。     

非均匀应力场下的铲状正断层带位移场和应力场特征

本文利用新的有限元方法研究了铲状正断层带在非均匀应力场下错动引起的位移场和应力场。研究发现：① 铲状正断层错动引起的断层面上的最大错距不是发生在地表,而是发生地表下面断层的中部;② 地表面最大水平位移和垂直位移都不是发生在地表断层上,而是发生在偏离断层一定距离的地方;③ 铲状正断层错动会在地表附近产生两个破裂区,一个在地表断层附近,一个在远离断层的上盘地表附近,这两个区与野外观测到的次生正断层区一致;④ 断层错动的应力降在断层内不是均匀的,最大值也是位于断层中部。     

2008年汶川大地震孕震、同震及震后变形和应力演化全过程的数值模拟

2008年M_S 8.0级汶川大地震发生在具有复杂的地质构造背景、强烈的地表起伏、不均匀的弹性和黏性结构的龙门山断裂带上。由于震前地震活动性不够强烈且地表构造变形较小,龙门山断裂带的地震危险性在汶川地震之前被低估。从数值模拟的角度,建立黏弹性有限元模型,考虑了初始地形、重力、构造加载、黏弹性松弛等因素对2008年汶川大地震的孕震、同震及震后150年变形全过程的影响,定量研究了映秀-北川断裂带的同震及震后变形,分析了弹性层、黏弹性层的应力积累、释放、调整的特点,模拟得到地表同震和震后位移与大地测量资料较为吻合,对汶川大地震的余震分布进行了力学上的解释,模拟得到震前、同震及震后的应力变化有助于深入分析大地震的动力学成因及其对周围区域的地震危险性影响。