Geodynamics of the deep sedimentary basin of the Caspian Sea region: paragenetic correlation of seismicity and mud volcanism

In this paper we analyze seismic regime and earthquake depth distribution and correlation of seismicity and mud volcanism in the Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea region. For the present region we have calculated accurate source locations, seismic activity, earthquake repetition and released earthquake energy parameters. It is shown that the active tectonic processes in the region are concentrated within the thick sedimentary cover that we consider as a general source of contemporary stress and a main structural element responsible for the origin of regional earthquakes. The correlation of seismicity and mud volcanism is of paragenetic character.     

Evaluation of seismic ground motion induced by topographic irregularity

Results of an extensive numerical study on the 2D scattering of seismic waves by local topography are presented. The investigation has been conducted using the direct boundary element method. Several types of topography (slopes, canyons and ridges) are considered. The influences of some key parameters, such as exciting frequency and geometry of the irregular feature, on surface ground motion are studied in detail. It is found that local topographic conditions play an important role in the modification of seismic ground motion at the irregular feature itself and its neighbourhood. The present results can be considered to be useful from the viewpoint of earthquake engineering and seismology.     

Wave-induced stresses and pore pressures in sloping seabeds

By using the Mellin transform, a general solution is obtained for the total stresses and pore pressure distribution in an infinite wedge under fairly general conditions of loading. The results for the particular case in which each surface is subjected to static sinusoidal pressures are given in an explicit form. The infinite integrals can be evaluated by numerical integration methods. This analytical method is verified by different cases. The results of this study could be used to determine the total stresses and pore pressures induced by a wave on a sloping seabed.     

Numerical Simulation of Solute Transport in Saturated Porous Media with Bounded Domains

This work presents the first attempt to develop unconditionally stable, implicit finite difference solutions of one-sided spatial fractional advection-dispersion equation (s-FADE) by imposing the nonzero Dirichlet boundary condition (ND BC) or the nonzero fractional Robin boundary condition (NFR BC) at inlet boundary and the zero fractional Neumann boundary condition (ZFN BC) at outlet boundary. The results of the numerical studies performed using artificial solute transport parameters demonstrated that the numerical solution with the NFR BC as the inlet boundary produced much more realistic concentration values. The numerical solution with the NFR BC at the inlet boundary was capable of correctly describing the Fickian and non-Fickian behaviors of the solute transport at different α values, and it had the relatively same accuracy at different numbers of the spatial nodes. Also, the practical application of the numerical solution with the NFR BC as the inlet boundary was investigated by conducting tracer experiments in homogeneous and heterogeneous soil columns. According to the obtained results, this numerical solution described well solute transport in the homogenous and heterogeneous soils. The α values of the homogeneous and heterogeneous soils were obtained in the ranges of 1.849–1.999 and 1.248–1.570, respectively, which were in excellent agreement with the physical properties of the soils. In a nutshell, the numerical solution of the s-FADE with the NFR BC as the inlet boundary can be successfully applied to describe the solute transport in the homogeneous and heterogeneous soils with bounded spatial domains.     

Experimental vulnerability curves for the residential buildings of Iran

Iran is one of the most seismically active countries of the world located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt. More than 180,000 people were killed due to earthquakes in Iran during the last five decades. Considering the fact that most Iranians live in masonry and non-engineered houses, having a comprehensive program for decreasing the vulnerability of society holds considerable importance. For this reason, loss estimation should be done before an earthquake strikes to prepare proper information for designing and selection of emergency plans and the retrofitting strategies prior to occurrence of earthquake. The loss estimation process consists of two principal steps of hazard analysis and vulnerability assessment. After identifying the earthquake hazard, the first step is to evaluate the vulnerability of residential buildings and lifelines and also the social and economic impacts of the earthquake scenarios. Among these, residential buildings have specific importance, because their destruction will disturb the daily life and result in casualties. Consequently, the vulnerability assessment of the buildings in Iran is important to identify the weak points in the built environment structure. The aim of this research is to prepare vulnerability curves for the residential buildings of Iran to provide a proper base for estimating probable damage features by future earthquakes. The estimation may contribute fundamentally for better seismic performance of Iranian societies. After a brief review of the vulnerability assessment methods in Iran and other countries, through the use of the European Macroseismic method, a model for evaluating the vulnerability of the Iranian buildings is proposed. This method allows the vulnerability assessment for numerous sets of buildings by defining the vulnerability curves for each building type based on the damage observations of previous earthquakes. For defining the vulnerability curves, a building typology classification is presented in this article, which is representative of Iranian building characteristics. The hazard is described in terms of the macroseismic intensity and the EMS-98 damage grades have been considered for classifying the physical damage to the buildings. The calculated vulnerability indexes and vulnerability curves show that for engineered houses there is not any notable difference between the vulnerability of Iranian and Risk-UE building types. For the non-engineered houses, the vulnerability index of brick and steel structures is less than the corresponding values of the other unreinforced masonry buildings of Iran. The vulnerability index of unreinforced and masonry buildings of Iran are larger than the values of the similar types in Risk-UE and so the Iranian buildings are more vulnerable in this regard.     

Boundary integral formulation and two-dimensional fundamental solutions for dynamic behavior analysis of unsaturated soils

In this paper the coupled equations governing the dynamic behavior of unsaturated soils are derived based on the poromechanics theory within the framework of the suction-based mathematical model presented by Gatmiri (1997) [Gatmiri B. Analysis of fully coupled behavior of unsaturated porous medium under stress, suction and temperature gradient. Final report of CERMES-EDF, 1997] and Gatmiri et al. (1998) [Gatmiri B, Delage P, Cerrolaza M, UDAM: a powerful finite element software for the analysis of unsaturated porous media. Adv Eng Software 1998; 29(1): 29–43]. In this formulation, the solid skeleton displacements, water pressure and air pressure are presumed to be independent variables. The Boundary Integral formulations as well as fundamental solutions for such a dynamic u–p_w–p_a theory are presented in this paper for the first time. The boundary integral equations are derived via the use of the weighted residuals method in a way that permits an easy discretization and implementation in a Boundary Element code. Also, the associated two dimensional (2D) fundamental solutions for such deformable porous medium with linear elastic behavior are derived in Laplace transform domain using the method of Hörmander. Finally, some numerical results are presented to show the accuracy of the proposed solutions. The derived results are verified analytically by comparison with the previously introduced corresponding fundamental solutions in elastodynamic limiting case.     

Predicting river water temperatures using stochastic models: case study of the Moisie River (Québec,Canada)

Successful applications of stochastic models for simulating and predicting daily stream temperature have been reported in the literature. These stochastic models have been generally tested on small rivers and have used only air temperature as an exogenous variable. This study investigates the stochastic modelling of daily mean stream water temperatures on the Moisie River, a relatively large unregulated river located in Québec, Canada. The objective of the study is to compare different stochastic approaches previously used on small streams to relate mean daily water temperatures to air temperatures and streamflow indices. Various stochastic approaches are used to model the water temperature residuals, representing short‐term variations, which were obtained by subtracting the seasonal components from water temperature time‐series. The first three models, a multiple regression, a second‐order autoregressive model, and a Box and Jenkins model, used only lagged air temperature residuals as exogenous variables. The root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) for these models varied between 0·53 and 1·70 °C and the second‐order autoregressive model provided the best results. A statistical methodology using best subsets regression is proposed to model the combined effect of discharge and air temperature on stream temperatures. Various streamflow indices were considered as additional independent variables, and models with different number of variables were tested. The results indicated that the best model included relative change in flow as the most important streamflow index. The RMSE for this model was of the order of 0·51 °C, which shows a small improvement over the first three models that did not include streamflow indices. The ridge regression was applied to this model to alleviate the potential statistical inadequacies associated with multicollinearity. The amplitude and sign of the ridge regression coefficients seem to be more in agreement with prior expectations (e.g. positive correlation between water temperature residuals of different lags) and make more physical sense. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic response of slopes subjected to incident SV wave by an improved boundary element approach

In this paper, an improved boundary element approach for 2D elastodynamics in time‐domain is presented. This approach consists in the truncation of time integrations, based on the rapid decrease of the fundamental solutions with time. It is shown that an important reduction of the computation time as well as the storage requirement can be achieved. Moreover, for half‐plane problems, the size of boundary element (BE) meshes and the computation time can be significantly reduced. The proposed approach is used to study the seismic response of slopes subjected to incident SV waves. It is found that large amplifications take place on the upper surface close to the slope, while attenuations are produced on the lower surface. The results also show that surface motions become very complex when the incident wavelength is comparable with the size of the slope or when the slope is steep. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Three‐dimensional transient thermo‐hydro‐mechanical fundamental solutions of unsaturated soils

The governing differential equations of unsaturated soils considering the thermo‐poro‐mechanical behaviour consist of equilibrium, moisture air and heat transfer equations. In this paper at first, following some necessary simplifications, the thermal three‐dimensional fundamental solution for an unsaturated deformable porous medium with linear elastic behaviour in Laplace transform domain is presented. Subsequently, the closed‐form time domain fundamental solutions are derived by analytical inversion of the Laplace transform domain solutions. Then a set of numerical results are presented, which demonstrate the accuracies and some salient features of the derived analytical transient fundamental solutions. Finally, the closed‐form time domain fundamental solution will be verified mathematically by comparison with the previously introduced corresponding fundamental solution. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

In situ cone penetration tests at the active Dashgil mud volcano,Azerbaijan: Evidence for excess fluid pressure,updoming, and possible future violent eruption

Active mud volcanism is a global phenomenon that represents a natural hazard by self-igniting eruptions and the continuous emission of methane gas in both marine and continental settings. Mud domes are often found in compressional tectonic settings such as the Caucasus orogenic wedge. Dashgil mud volcano, the most prominent of >200 features in Azerbaijan, has erupted vigorously in historic times. For several years, we have observed variations in the activity of Dashgil dome, including transients in methane flux, build-up of extrusive mud cones on the main feature, and flexural polygonal cracks adjacent to the main crater lake and new mud cones. In spring 2007, we carried out in situ CPTU (Cone Penetration Testing with Pore Pressure measurement) experiments in the crestal area of Dashgil. Our data suggest that the central portion of the crater lake, which hosts the conduit for gas (and possible mud) ascent, shows both low sediment shear strength (<5–20 kPa) and excess pore fluid pressures between 15 and 30 kPa supra-hydrostatic at 1 m sub-bottom depth. In situ cone resistance as a measure for undrained shear strength is as low as 150 kPa in the conduit, whereas the mud is found rather stiff in all other testing locations (300–700 kPa, probably a result of deeply buried shales of the Maikop formation parts of which now liquefy and ascend). Pore pressure is low in the centre of the conduit, probably because of rapidly migrating gas. It increases to 30 kPa at the lake bottom and deep flank, then decreases upslope on the lake flank, and reaches hydrostatic values at the crater rim. From the overpressured region beneath the fluid-filled crest of Dashgil dome, combined with the other observations, we suspect to currently witness an ongoing period of updoming. The presence of sintered mudstones from explosive eruptions in 1908 and 1928 (and most likely before) suggests that a similar violent activity may occur in the near future.