Landslide susceptibility mapping for a landslide-prone area (Findikli,NE of Turkey) by likelihood-frequency ratio and weighted linear combination models

Landslides are very common natural problems in the Black Sea Region of Turkey due to the steep topography, improper use of land cover and adverse climatic conditions for landslides. In the western part of region, many studies have been carried out especially in the last decade for landslide susceptibility mapping using different evaluation methods such as deterministic approach, landslide distribution, qualitative, statistical and distribution-free analyses. The purpose of this study is to produce landslide susceptibility maps of a landslide-prone area (Findikli district, Rize) located at the eastern part of the Black Sea Region of Turkey by likelihood frequency ratio (LRM) model and weighted linear combination (WLC) model and to compare the results obtained. For this purpose, landslide inventory map of the area were prepared for the years of 1983 and 1995 by detailed field surveys and aerial-photography studies. Slope angle, slope aspect, lithology, distance from drainage lines, distance from roads and the land-cover of the study area are considered as the landslide-conditioning parameters. The differences between the susceptibility maps derived by the LRM and the WLC models are relatively minor when broad-based classifications are taken into account. However, the WLC map showed more details but the other map produced by LRM model produced weak results. The reason for this result is considered to be the fact that the majority of pixels in the LRM map have high values than the WLC-derived susceptibility map. In order to validate the two susceptibility maps, both of them were compared with the landslide inventory map. Although the landslides do not exist in the very high susceptibility class of the both maps, 79% of the landslides fall into the high and very high susceptibility zones of the WLC map while this is 49% for the LRM map. This shows that the WLC model exhibited higher performance than the LRM model.     

Petrogenesis of plio-quaternary intra-plate continental alkaline lavas from the İskenderun Gulf (Southern Turkey): Evidence for metasomatized lithospheric mantle

The Quaternary alkaline volcanic field of Southern Turkey is characterized by intra-continental plate-type magmatic products, exposed to the north of the ?skenderun Gulf along a NE-SW trending East Anatolian Fault, to the west of its intersection with the N–S trending Dead Sea Fault zone. The ?skenderun Gulf alkaline rocks are mostly silica-undersaturated with normative nepheline and olivine and are mostly classified as basanites and alkaline basalts with their low-silica contents ranging between 43 and 48?wt.% SiO₂. They display Ocean Island Basalt (OIB)–type trace element patterns characterized by enrichments in large-ion-lithophile elements (LILE) and light rare earth element (LREE), and have (La/Yb)_N?=?8.8–17.7 and (Hf/Sm)_N?=?0.9–1.6 similar to those of basaltic rocks found in intraplate suites. The basanitic rocks have limited variations Sr-Nd isotopic ratios (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr?=?0.70307–0.70324, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd?=?0.512918–0.521947), whereas the alkali basalts display more evolved Sr-Nd isotopic ratios (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr?=?0.70346-0.70365, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd?=?0.512887–0.521896). The ?skenderun Gulf alkaline rocks also display limited Pb isotopic variations with ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb?=?18.75–19.09 ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb?=?15.61–15.66 and²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb?=?38.65–39.02, indicating that they originated from an enriched lithospheric mantle source. Calculated fractionation vectors indicate that clinopyroxene and olivine are the main fractionating mineral phases. Similarly, based on Sr-Nd isotopic ratios, the assimilation and fractional crystallization (AFC) modeling shows that the alkali basalts were affected by AFC processes (r?=?0.2) and were slightly contaminated by the upper crustal material.The high TiO₂ contents, enrichments in Ba and Nb, and depletions in Rb can likely be explained by the existence of amphibole in the mantle source, which might, in turn, indicate that the source mantle has been affected by metasomatic processes. The modeling based on relative abundances of trace elements suggests involvement of amphibole-bearing peridotite as the source material. ?skenderun Gulf alkaline rocks can thus be interpreted as the products of variable extent of mixing between melts from both amphibole-bearing peridotite and dry peridotite.     

An approach for estimating the largest probable tsunami from far-field subduction zone earthquakes

Following the recent unexpected earthquake events of 2004 and 2011, it can be cautiously extrapolated that all major subduction zones bearing the capacity to produce mega-earthquake events will eventually do so given enough time, irrespective of the lack of such in the relatively short historical record. This notion has led to an effort of assigning maximum earthquake magnitudes to all major subduction zones, either based on geological constraints or based on size–frequency relations, or a combination of both. In this study, we utilize the proposed maximum magnitudes to assess tsunami hazard in Central California in the very long return periods. We also assessed tsunami hazard following an alternative methodology to calculate maximum magnitudes, which uses scaling relations for subduction zone earthquakes and maximum fault rupture scenarios found in literature. A sensitivity analysis is performed for Central California that is applicable to any coastal site in the Pacific Rim and can readily provide a strong indication for which subduction zones beam the most energy toward a study area. The maximum earthquake scenarios are then narrowed down to a few candidates, for which the initial conditions are examined in more detail. The chosen worst-case scenarios for Central California stem from the Alaska–Aleutian subduction zone that beams more energy and generates the biggest amplitude waves toward the study area. The largest tsunami scenario produces maximum free surface elevations of 15 m and run-up heights greater than 20 m.     

A comparison of landslide susceptibility maps produced by logistic regression, multi-criteria decision, and likelihood ratio methods: a case study at ?zmir, Turkey

The main purpose of this study is to compare the use of logistic regression, multi-criteria decision analysis, and a likelihood ratio model to map landslide susceptibility in and around the city of İzmir in western Turkey. Parameters, such as lithology, slope gradient, slope aspect, faults, drainage lines, and roads, were considered. Landslide susceptibility maps were produced using each of the three methods and then compared and validated. Before the modeling and validation, the observed landslides were separated into two groups. The first group was for training, and the other group was for validation steps. The accuracy of models was measured by fitting them to a validation set of observed landslides. For validation process, the area under curvature (AUC) approach was applied. According to the AUC values of 0.810, 0.764, and 0.710 for logistic regression, likelihood ratio, and multi-criteria decision analysis, respectively, logistic regression was determined to be the most accurate method among the other used landslide susceptibility mapping methods. Based on these results, logistic regression and likelihood ratio models can be used to mitigate hazards related to landslides and to aid in land-use planning.     

Hydrographic data modeling methods for determining precise seafloor topography

Acoustic and light detection and ranging are the recent methods used in hydrographical surveying. Depth values depending on X and Y horizontal coordinates are measured in both methods. While processing the hydrographical data, all data with different density are interpolated and modeled for determining the seafloor model using different interpolation techniques. In this study, effects of different surface modeling methods are investigated. Data obtained from single-beam echo sounder (SBES) are modeled using inverse distance, kriging, local polynomial, minimum curvature, moving average, nearest-neighbor, and Delaunay interpolation methods. Interpolation results are compared with the multibeam echo sounder data which were collected on the same area for determining the accuracy of modeling methods. Depending on the maximum total vertical uncertainty values in hydrographic survey standards, the best results were determined by using the kriging method. The Delaunay, minimum curvature, and inverse distance methods can be used for modeling the SBES data in shallow waters.     

Landslide susceptibility mapping by frequency ratio and logistic regression methods: an example from Niksar–Resadiye (Tokat,Turkey)

Turkey confronts loss of life and large economic losses due to natural disasters caused by its morphologic structure, geographical placement, and climate characteristics. The Kuzulu (Koyulhisar) landslide, which caused loss of life and property on 17th March 2005, occurred in an area near the country’s most important active fault, the North Anatolian Fault Zone. To mitigate and prevent landslide damages, prediction of landslide susceptibility areas based on probabilistic methods has a great importance. The purpose of this study was to produce a landslide susceptibility map by the logistic regression and frequency ratio methodologies for a 733-km² area near the North Anatolian Fault Zone from the southeast of Niksar to Resadiye in Tokat province. Conditioning parameters, such as elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, distance to streams, roads, and faults, drainage density, and fault density, were used in the analysis. Before susceptibility analysis, the landslides observed in the area were separated into two groups for use in analysis and verification, respectively. The susceptibility maps produced had five different susceptibility classes such as very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. To test the performance of the susceptibility maps, area under curve (AUC) approach was used. For the logistic regression method, the AUC value was 0.708; while for the frequency rate method, this value was 0.744. According to these AUC values, it could be concluded that the two landslide susceptibility maps obtained were successful.     

Application of frequency ratio,statistical index,and weights-of-evidence models and their comparison in landslide susceptibility mapping in Central Nepal Himalaya

The Mugling–Narayanghat road section falls within the Lesser Himalaya and Siwalik zones of Central Nepal Himalaya and is highly deformed by the presence of numerous faults and folds. Over the years, this road section and its surrounding area have experienced repeated landslide activities. For that reason, landslide susceptibility zonation is essential for roadside slope disaster management and for planning further development activities. The main goal of this study was to investigate the application of the frequency ratio (FR), statistical index (SI), and weights-of-evidence (WoE) approaches for landslide susceptibility mapping of this road section and its surrounding area. For this purpose, the input layers of the landslide conditioning factors were prepared in the first stage. A landslide inventory map was prepared using earlier reports, aerial photographs interpretation, and multiple field surveys. A total of 438 landslide locations were detected. Out these, 295 (67 %) landslides were randomly selected as training data for the modeling using FR, SI, and WoE models and the remaining 143 (33 %) were used for the validation purposes. The landslide conditioning factors considered for the study area are slope gradient, slope aspect, plan curvature, altitude, stream power index, topographic wetness index, lithology, land use, distance from faults, distance from rivers, and distance from highway. The results were validated using area under the curve (AUC) analysis. From the analysis, it is seen that the FR model with a success rate of 76.8 % and predictive accuracy of 75.4 % performs better than WoE (success rate, 75.6 %; predictive accuracy, 74.9 %) and SI (success rate, 75.5 %; predictive accuracy, 74.6 %) models. Overall, all the models showed almost similar results. The resultant susceptibility maps can be useful for general land use planning.     

Modelling scour and deposition in harbours due to complex tsunami-induced currents

In this paper, a set of models responsible for hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and morphological evolution are introduced with their theoretical backgrounds, and it is explained how they are fully connected through a two-way coupling to yield an integrated sediment transport model applicable to tsunami cases. In particular, a fully nonlinear Boussinesq model with bottom shear-induced rotational terms is chosen for the hydrodynamic model in order to provide a better physical approximation of tsunami-related, near-bed hydrodynamics in the nearshore. A finite-volume scheme, stable and suitable for phase-resolving model runs longer than 10 simulated hours, is adopted in the numerical discretization. The accuracy and applicability of the developed model are investigated through numerical tests on various sediment problems in the shallow region. Calculated results agree well with existing experimental records. Finally, an ocean-wide, field-scale simulation of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami is attempted, with a focus on the localized effects of tsunami-induced morphological changes at Crescent City Harbor and Santa Cruz Harbor (USA). Consistent with the reported observations, strong and vortical velocity fields are generated through the model and result in significant changes in morphological configurations. Depth variations and areas of scouring and deposition are compared between modelled and observed records, and the results are discussed. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Study of ground subsidence in northwest Harris county using GPS,LiDAR, and InSAR techniques

Subsidence has been affecting many cities around the world, such as Nagoya (Japan), Venice (Italy), San Joaquin Valley and Long Beach (California), and Houston (Texas). This phenomenon can be caused by natural processes and/or human activities, including but not limited to carbonate dissolution, extraction of material from mines, soil compaction, and fluid withdrawal. Surface deformation has been an ongoing problem in the Houston Metropolitan area because of the city’s location in a passive margin where faulting and subsidence are common. Most of the previous studies attributed the causes of the surface deformation to four major mechanisms: faulting, soil compaction, salt tectonics, and fluid withdrawal (groundwater withdrawal and hydrocarbon extraction). This work assessed the surface deformation in the greater Houston area and their possible relationship with fluid withdrawal. To achieve this goal, data from three complimentary remote sensing techniques Global Positioning System (GPS), Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar were used. GPS rates for the last 17 years show a change in surface deformation patterns. High rates of subsidence in the northwestern areas (up to ~4 cm/year) and signs of uplift in the southeast are observed (up to 2 mm\year). High rates of subsidence appear to be decreasing. Contrary to previous studies in which the location of subsidence appeared to be expanding toward the northwest, current results show that the area of subsidence is shrinking and migrating toward the northeast. Digital elevation model generated from airborne LiDAR, revealed changes between salt domes and their surrounding areas. The persistent scatterer interferometry was performed using twenty-five (25) European remote sensing-1/2 scenes. Rates of change in groundwater level and hydrocarbon production were calculated using data from 261 observation wells and 658 hydrocarbon wells. A water level decline of 4 m/year was found in area of highest subsidence, this area also show ~70 million m³/year of hydrocarbon extraction. This study found strong correlation between fluid withdrawals and subsidence. Therefore, both groundwater and hydrocarbon withdrawal in northwest Harris County are considered to be the major drivers of the surface deformation.     

Landslide susceptibility assessment in the İzmir (West Anatolia,Turkey) city center and its near vicinity by the logistic regression method

A landslide susceptibility assessment for İzmir city (Western Turkey), which is the third biggest city of Turkey, was performed by a logistic regression method. A database of landslide characteristics was prepared using detailed field surveys. The major landslides in the study area are generally observed in the field, dominated by weathered volcanics, and 39.63% of the total landslide area is in this unit. The parameters of lithology, slope gradient, slope aspect, distance to drainage, distance to roads and distance to fault lines were used as variables in the logistic regression analysis. The effect of each parameter on landslide occurrence was assessed from the corresponding coefficients that appear in the logistic regression function. On the basis of the obtained coefficients, lithology plays the most important role in determining landslide occurrence and distribution. Slope gradient has a more significant effect than the other geomorphological parameters, such as slope aspect and distance to drainage. Using a predicted map of probability, the study area was classified into five categories of landslide susceptibility: very low, low, moderate, high and very high. Whereas 49.65% of the total study area has very low susceptibility, very high susceptibility zones make up 11.69% of the area.