Proposal of a National Mitigation Strategy Against Earthquakes in Turkey

While laboratory and analytical studies can provide valuable information about earthquake hazard mitigation, the most effective educator is the impact of a full-scale earthquake on a full-scale city. The recent earthquakes in Turkey showed that the governmental as well as individual attitudes towards earthquakes did not represent proportionate responses to the risk levels concerned. Turkey had weaknesses in preparing, planning, mitigating and responding to disasters in spite of the known seismic vulnerability of the country. Many steps have been taken after 1999 earthquakes in Turkey, however, the preparations largely concentrate on the response and recovery phases and a fundamental step to reform the current disaster management system and steps to rehabilitate the vulnerable building stock has not been undertaken until today. This would involve changing the present laws and regulations and de-centralising the disaster management system. The aim of this paper is to propose a national mitigation strategy for Turkey for a time-frame of 10 years. The model proposed is a very comprehensive model for earthquake risk reduction in Turkey and within this context, the legislative and technical aspects of mitigation will be discussed in detail. Strategies for mitigating and retrofitting the existing building stock will also be proposed.     

Analysis of stochastic characteristics of the Benue River flow process

Stochastic characteristics of the Benue River streamflow process are examined under conditions of data austerity. The streamflow process is investigated for trend, non-stationarity and seasonality for a time period of 26 years. Results of trend analyses with Mann-Kendall test show that there is no trend in the annual mean discharges. Monthly flow series examined with seasonal Kendall test indicate the presence of positive change in the trend for some months, especially the months of August, January, and February. For the stationarity test, daily and monthly flow series appear to be stationary whereas at 1%, 5%, and 10% significant levels, the stationarity alternative hypothesis is rejected for the annual flow series. Though monthly flow appears to be stationary going by this test, because of high seasonality, it could be said to exhibit periodic stationarity based on the seasonality analysis. The following conclusions are drawn： （1） There is seasonality in both the mean and variance with unimodal distribution. （2） Days with high mean also have high variance. （3） Skewness coefficients for the months within the dry season period are greater than those of the wet season period, and seasonal autocorrelations for streamflow during dry season are generally larger than those of the wet season. Precisely, they are significantly different for most of the months. （4） The autocorrelation functions estimated ＂over time＂ are greater in the absolute value for data that have not been deseasonalised but were initially normalised by logarithmic transformation only, while autocorrelation functions for i = 1, 2 365 estimated ＂over realisations＂ have their coefficients significantly different from other coefficients.     

A Dual Delineation Approach to Untangle Interferences in Well Doublets Systems

Traditional numerical methods for the delineation of wellhead protection areas span deterministic and probabilistic approaches. They provide time-related capture zones. However, none of the existing approaches identifies the groundwater contribution areas related to each source or sink. In this work, the worthiness of the so-called double delineation approach was extended. This task was achieved by simple postprocessing of its dual outputs leading to a highly efficient screening tool. In the particular context of geothermal resources management through the well doublets of the Dogger aquifer in the Paris Basin (France), the approach was extended to forecast the compositional heat breakthrough at production wells. Hence, cold-water breakthrough and temperature decline in production wells are timely assessed in low-enthalpy geothermal reservoirs. The method quantifies how groundwater volumes are moving through space and time between any couple of source and sink. It provides unprecedented tools advancing the enhanced understanding of water resources systems functioning. It is highly recommended to implement the presented concepts in the current and future generations of community groundwater models.     

Modeling Seismic Attributes of Pn Waves using the Spectral-Element Method

To investigate the nature of Pn propagation, we have implemented the spectral-element method (SEM) for vertically and laterally varying media with and without attenuation. As a practical measure, essential features of the Pn waves are distilled into seismic attributes including arrival times, amplitudes and pulse frequencies. To validate the SEM simulations, we first compare the SEM results with reflectivity calculations of Braile and Smith (Geophys. J.R. Astr. Soc. 40, 145–176, 1975) and then to the asymptotic results of ?erveny and Ravindra (Theory of Seismic Headwaves, University of Toronto Press, pp. 235–250, 1971). Models with random, laterally varying Moho structures are then simulated, where the amplitude and pulse frequency characteristics are found to be stable to small Moho interface perturbations. SEM calculations for models with different upper-mantle velocity gradients are next performed where it is found that interference effects can strongly influence the Pn amplitudes and pulses frequencies. For larger-scale, laterally varying structures, SEM models similar to that found along the Hi-CLIMB array in Tibet are then performed. It is observed that large-scale structures, along with small-scale structures, upper-mantle velocity gradients and attenuation, can all significantly affect the Pn attributes. Ambiguities between upper-mantle velocity gradients and attenuation are also found when using Pn amplitudes and pulse frequency attributes. These ambiguities may be resolved, to some degree, by using the curvature of the travel times at longer regional distance, however, this would also be complicated by lateral variability.     

Behaviour of brick infill walls strengthened with expanded steel plates

The present study was dedicated to investigate an effective, economical and convenient method for strengthening brick infill walls, i.e. the use of externally-bonded expanded steel plates. A total of 30 plastered wall assemblies were tested under monotonic diagonal loading to investigate the contribution of these plates to the load capacities, ductilities and rigidities of brick walls. The plate thickness, bolt spacing and location of the plates in the wall were the parameters of the test program. The experiments indicated that application of the plates on the outermost fine plaster layer significantly improves the diagonal load–deflection behaviour of infill walls and reducing the bolt spacing provides the strengthened walls with higher load capacity values. An analytical expression was developed for estimating the diagonal load capacities of plated brick walls. The analytical load estimates were found to be in close agreement with the experimental values.     

Competitive Sorption of Antimony with Zinc,Nickel, and Aluminum in a Seaweed Based Fixed‐bed Sorption Column

The removal of heavy metals such as Ni(II), Zn(II), Al(III), and Sb(III) from aqueous metal solutions was investigated using novel, cost effective, seaweed derived sorbents. Studies with a laboratory scale fixed‐bed sorption column, using a seaweed waste material (referred to as waste Ascophyllum product (WAP)) from the processing of Ascophyllum nodosum as biosorbent, demonstrated high removal efficiencies (RE) for a variety of heavy metals including Ni(II), Zn(II) and Al(III), with 90, 90 and 74% RE achieved from initial 10 mg/L metal solutions, respectively. The presence of Sb(III) in multi component metal solutions suppressed the removal of Ni(II), Zn(II) and Al(III), reducing the RE to 28, 17 and 24%, respectively. The use of Polysiphonia lanosa as a biosorbent showed a 67% RE for Sb(III), both alone and in combination with other metals. Potentiometric and conductometric titrations, X‐ray photoelectron and mid‐infrared spectroscopic analysis demonstrated that carboxyl, alcohol, sulfonate and ether groups were heavily involved in Sb(III) binding by P. lanosa. Only carboxyl and sulfonate groups were involved in Sb(III) binding by WAP. Furthermore, a greater amount of weak acidic groups (mainly carboxylic functions) were involved in Sb(III) binding by P. lanosa, compared to WAP which involved a greater concentration of strong acidic groups (mainly sulfonates).     

Electron spin resonance of Mn2+ in sodalite

Electron spin resonance of allowed (Δm=0) and forbidden (Δm=±1) hyperfine transitions of Mn²⁺ in sodalite, Na₈(Al₆Si₆O₂₄)Cl₂, is reported. No fine structure other than the central M=∣+1/2>?∣?1/2> transition is observed. From intensity ratios of forbidden to allowed transitions and doubling of allowed lines in powder spectra the crystal field parameter |D| was estimated as equal to (8±5) 10^?3 cm^?1. The g-value for the spectrum was obtained as equal to 2.0033±0.0005. The hyperfine structure constant |A| was 83±1 gauss, equal to (77±1) 10^?4 cm^?1.     

Climate negotiations beyond Kyoto: developing countries concerns and interests

Five years down the road from Kyoto, the Protocol that bears that city’s name still awaits enough qualifying ratifications to come into force. While attention has been understandably focussed on the ratification process, it is time to begin thinking about the next steps for the global climate regime, particularly in terms of a deeper inclusion of developing countries’ concerns and interests. This paper begins doing so from the perspective of the developing countries. The principal argument is that we need to return to the basic principles outlined in the Framework Convention on Climate Change in searching for a north-south bargain on climate change. Such a bargain may be achievable if we can realign the policy architecture of the climate regime to its original stated goals of sustainable development.