Effect of Aftershocks on Earthquake Hazard Estimation: An Example from the North Anatolian Fault Zone

In order to investigate the effect of aftershocks on earthquake hazard estimation, earthquake hazard parameters (_m, b and M_max) have been estimated by the maximum likelihood method from the main shocks catalogue and the raw earthquakes catalogue for the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). The main shocks catalogue has been compiled from the raw earthquake catalogue by eliminating the aftershocks using the window method. The raw earthquake catalogue consisted of instrumentally detected earthquakes between 1900 and 1992, and historical earthquakes that occurred between 1000–1900. For the events of the mainshock catalogue the Poisson process is valid and for the raw earthquake catalogue it does not fit. The paper demonstrates differences in the hazard outputs if on one hand the main catalogues and on the other hand the raw catalogue is used. The maximum likelihood method which allows the use of the mixed earthquake catalogue containing incomplete (historical) and complete (instrumental) earthquake data is used to determine the earthquake hazard parameters. The maximum regional magnitude (M_max, the seismic activity rate (_m), the mean return period (R) and the b value of the magnitude-frequency relation have been estimated for the 24°–31° E, 31°–41° E, 41°–45° E sections of the North Anatolian Fault Zone from the raw earthquake catalogue and the main shocks catalogue. Our results indicate that inclusion of aftershocks changes the b value and the seismic activity rate _m depending on the proportion of aftershocks in a region while it does not significantly effect the value of the maximum regional magnitude since it is related to the maximum observed magnitude. These changes in the earthquake hazard parameters caused the return periods to be over- and underestimated for smaller and larger events, respectively.     

Geochemical and petrological aspects of dike intrusions in the Lycian ophiolites (SW Turkey): a case study for the dike emplacement along the Tauride Belt Ophiolites

Lycian ophiolites located in the Western Taurides, are cut at all structural levels by dolerite and gabbro dikes. The dolerite dikes from this area are both pristine and metamorphosed. The non-metamorphosed dikes are observed both in the peridotites and in the metamorphic sole rocks. Accordingly, the non-metamorphosed dikes cutting the metamorphic sole were generated after cooling of the metamorphic sole rocks. The metamorphosed dolerite dikes are only observed in the peridotites. The physical conditions and timing of the metamorphism for the metamorphosed dolerite dikes are similar to those of the metamorphic sole rocks of the Lycian ophiolites suggesting that the metamorphosed dolerite dikes were metamorphosed together with the metamorphic sole rocks. Therefore, the dike injections in the western part of the Tauride Belt Ophiolites occurred before and after the generation of the metamorphic sole rocks. All metamorphosed and non-metamorphosed dikes are considered to have the same origin and all of them are subduction-related as inferred from whole-rock geochemistry and lead isotopes. Lead isotope compositions of whole rocks of both dike groups cluster in a narrow field in conventional Pb isotope diagrams (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 18.40–18.64; ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.56–15.58; ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 38.23–38.56) indicating a derivation from an isotopically homogeneous source. On the ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb versus ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb diagram, isotope compositions of the dikes plot slightly below the orogen curve suggesting contributions from mantle reservoir enriched by subducted oceanic lithosphere. Such a signature is typical of island arc magmatic rocks and supports the formation of the investigated rocks in a subduction-related environment.     

Estimation of site effects using strong motion data of BYTNet array in Turkey

Simultaneous estimation of effects of source, propagation path, and local site amplification was carried out using observed strong motion records in a frequency range from 0.8 to 20 Hz for the purpose of empirical evaluation of the local site effects in different geological conditions in the northwestern part of Turkey. The analyzed data are S-wave portions of 162 accelerograms from 39 shallow events observed at 14 sites of BYTNet array. A spectral separation method was applied to the observed S-wave spectra. The solutions for source spectra, inelasticity factor of propagation path for S-waves (Q _s-value), and factor of site amplification at each site were obtained in a least squares sense. In the analysis, we assumed that the factor of the site amplification at a reference site is the same as that of theoretical amplification of S-waves to the soil model whose bottom layer has an S-wave velocity around 2.15 km/s. The estimated Q _s-value of the propagation path is modeled as Q _s(f)?=?87.4f^0.78. The estimated site amplifications are characterized into three groups. The sites in the first group belong to rock site with no dominant peaks at a frequency range of 2 to 10 Hz. The second group of hard soil sites is characterized with moderately dominant peaks at a frequency of 5 Hz. The last group for soft soil sites has common peaks at a frequency of 4 Hz with larger amplitudes than those in the hard soil group. We, then, compare the amplifications with average S-wave velocity in top 30 m of the shallow S-wave profiles and proposed linear empirical formula between them at each frequency. We, furthermore, inverted the observed amplification factors into S-wave velocity and Q _s-value profiles of the deep soil over the basement.     

In situ and laboratory treatment tests for lowering of excess manganese and iron in drinking water sourced from river–groundwater interaction

Manganese and iron are essential nutrients at low doses. However, long-term exposure in high doses may be harmful. Human activities and natural sources are responsible for manganese and iron contamination in water. This study aimed to investigate the source of high manganese and iron contents in shallow groundwater, where the groundwater is used for drinking purpose, and to decrease the excess manganese and iron from shallow groundwater. Based on the on-site analytical results taken from the wells in the study area, iron contents in water samples varied between 30 and 200 μg/L, which were under the allowable limits of Turkish Drinking Water Standards (TDWS) (Water intended for human consumption, http://rega.basbakanlik.gov.tr/eskiler/2005/02/20050217-3.htm, 2005). However, manganese levels varied from 30 to 248 μg/L, which some of them are higher than the allowable limits of TDWS (Water intended for human consumption, http://rega.basbakanlik.gov.tr/eskiler/2005/02/20050217-3.htm, 2005) (50 μg/L), and EPA (http://water.epa.gov/drink/contaminants/index.cfm, 2006) (50 μg/L). The source of excess manganese is originated mainly from geogenic source besides Porsuk River interaction in shallow aquifer in the specific section of the study area. To decrease high manganese content from the well water and reservoir water, laboratory and in situ treatment tests were applied. Among these tests, chlorination, associated with filtration (by fine sand, active carbon and zeolite) and the use of different filtration procedures by cation exchange resin were determined as the most effective methods, which was not previously applied on-site as a combinative approaches to reduce the excess manganese in water.     

Seismic behaviour of the North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of Marmara (NW Turkey): implications for earthquake recurrence times and future seismic hazard

Possible long-term seismic behaviour of the Northern strand of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, between western extreme of the 1999 İzmit rupture and the Aegean Sea, after 400 AD is studied by examining the historical seismicity, the submarine fault mapping and the paleoseismological studies of the recent scientific efforts. The long-term seismic behaviour is discussed through two possible seismicity models devised from M _S ≥ 7.0 historical earthquakes. The estimated return period of years of the fault segments for M1 and M2 seismic models along with their standard deviations are as follows: F4 segment 255 ± 60 and 258 ± 12; F5 segment 258 ± 60 and 258 ± 53; F6 segment 258 ± 60 and 258 ± 53; F7 segment 286 ± 103 and 286 ± 90; F8 segment 286 ± 90 and 286 ± 36. As the latest ruptures on the submarine segments have been reported to be during the 1754–1766 earthquake sequence, and the 1912 mainshock rupture has been evidenced to extend almost all over the western part of the Sea of Marmara, our results imply imminent seismic hazard and, considering the mean recurrence time, a large earthquake to strike the eastern part of the Sea of Marmara in the next two decades.     

Evaluation of the effect of oxygen on electro-Fenton treatment performance for real textile wastewater using the Taguchi approach

This investigation demonstrates the performance difference of EF reactions conducted in the oxygenated and oxygen-free conditions due to the contribution of hydroxyl radicals in the solution. Additionally, the effects of different operating variables (e.g., current, initial wastewater concentration, and air flow rate) on the decolorization, mineralization, and turbidity removal performance were investigated, and the variables were optimized using the Taguchi method. Under the optimum operation conditions in the EF process, 100% color, 70.4% total organic carbon (TOC), and 98.8% turbidity removals were achieved in the oxygenated solution. However, a decrease was observed in the results of oxygen-free EF reactions, and 91.2, 63.2, and 89.1% removal percentages were obtained for decolorization, mineralization, and turbidity, respectively.     

Intrinsic and Scattering Seismic Attenuation in Southwestern Anatolia

The intrinsic dissipation and scattering attenuation in southwestern (SW) Anatolia, which is a tectonically active region, is studied using the coda waves. First the coda quality factor (Q_c) assuming single scattering is estimated from the slope of the coda-wave amplitude decay. Then the Multiple Lapse Time Window (MLTW) analysis is performed with a uniform earth model. Three non-overlapping temporal data windows are used to calculate the scattered seismic energy densities against the source-receiver distances, which, in turn, are used to calculate separate estimates of the intrinsic and scattering factors. In order to explore the frequency dependency, the observed seismograms are band pass-filtered at the center frequencies of 0.75, 1.5, 3.0, 6.0 and 12.0. The scattering attenuation (Q_s⁻¹) is found lower than the intrinsic attenuation (Q_i⁻¹) at all frequencies except at 0.75 Hz where the opposite is observed. Overall the intrinsic attenuation dominates over the scattering attenuation in the SW Anatolia region. The integrated energy curves obtained for the first energy window (i.e., 0–15 s) are somewhat irregular with distance while the second (i.e., 15–30 s) and third (i.e., 30–45 s) data windows exhibit more regular change with distance at most frequencies. The seismic albedo B₀ is determined as 0.61 at 0.75 Hz and 0.34 at 12.0 Hz while the total attenuation factor denoted by L_e⁻¹ changes in the range 0.034–0.017. For the source-station range 20–180 km considered the scattering attenuation is found strongly frequency dependent given by the power law Q_s⁻¹ = 0.010*f^−1.508. The same relations for Q_i⁻¹, Q_t⁻¹ (total), Q_c⁻¹ and (expected) hold as Q_i⁻¹ = 0.0090*f^−1.17, Q_t⁻¹ = 0.019*f^−1.31, Q_c⁻¹ = 0.008*f^−0.84 and respectively. Compared to the other attenuation factors Q_c⁻¹ and are less dependent on the frequency.     

A detailed source study of the Orta (Çankırı) earthquake of June 6, 2000 (MS = 6.1): An intraplate earthquake in central Anatolia

The devastating zmit and Düzce earthquakes were followed by theOrta intra-plate earthquake (M_S = 6.1) occurred in the central Anatolianblock on June 6, 2000. The focal mechanism, aftershock distribution andthe field studies (Emre et al., 2000) suggest a movement on a 21-km longDodurga fault striking nearly N-S where the sense of motion is left-lateralstrike-slip with considerable amount of normal component. We applied theconstrained linear finite-fault inversion method of Hartzell and Heaton(1983) to the teleseismic P and SH waveforms to derive a coseismic slipdistribution model for the earthquake. Time windows approach is appliedallowing variable rise times and rupture velocities. The source-rise timefunction is discretized into consecutive time intervals that stand for slipcontribution of individual subfaults. Although no clear surface ruptureswere associated with the earthquake, the resulting slip model suggestscoseismic slip in the order of several tens of centimetres. Our coseismicslip distribution model identifies two slip patches with the followingmaximum slip values: (1) the larger one (42 cm) is located to the southof the hypocenter at depth range of 4–8 km and (2) the smaller one(31 cm) is located just above and north of the hypocenter. Theslip-model yield a seismic moment of 1.0 × 10¹⁸ Nm, most of whichis released from the rupture over the depth of 8 km.