SN 1994W: an interacting supernova or two interacting shells?

We present a multi-epoch quantitative spectroscopic analysis of the Type IIn supernova (Type IIn SN) 1994W, an event interpreted by Chugai et al. as stemming from the interaction between the ejecta of a SN and a  0.4 M_⊙  circumstellar shell ejected 1.5 yr before core collapse. During the brightening phase, our models suggest that the source of optical radiation is not unique, perhaps associated with an inner optically thick cold dense shell and outer optically thin shocked material. During the fading phase, our models support a single source of radiation, an hydrogen-rich optically thick layer with a near-constant temperature of ∼7000 K that recedes from a radius of  4.3 × 10¹⁵  at a peak to  2.3 × 10¹⁵ cm  40 d later. We reproduce the hybrid narrow-core broad-wing line profile shapes of SN 1994W at all times, invoking an optically thick photosphere exclusively (i.e. without any external optically thick shell). In SN 1994W, slow expansion makes scattering with thermal electrons a key escape mechanism for photons trapped in optically thick line cores, and allows the resulting broad incoherent electron-scattering wings to be seen around narrow-line cores. In SNe with larger expansion velocities, the thermal broadening due to incoherent scattering is masked by the broad profile and the dominant frequency redshift occasioned by bulk motions. Given the absence of broad lines at all times and the very low ⁵⁶Ni yields, we speculate whether SN 1994W could have resulted from an interaction between two ejected shells without core collapse. The high conversion efficiency of kinetic to thermal energy may not require a SN-like energy budget for SN1994W.     

Navigating the dilemmas of climate policy in Europe: evidence from policy evaluation studies

Climate change is widely recognised as a ‘wicked’ policy problem. Agreeing and implementing governance responses is proving extremely difficult. Policy makers in many jurisdictions now emphasise their ambition to govern using the best available evidence. One obvious source of such evidence is the evaluations of the performance of existing policies. But to what extent do these evaluations provide insights into the difficult dilemmas that governors typically encounter? We address this question by reviewing the content of 262 evaluation studies of European climate policies in the light of six kinds of dilemma found in the governance literature. We are interested in what these studies say about the performance of European climate policies and in their capacity to inform evidence-based policy-making. We find that the evaluations do arrive at common findings: that climate change is framed as a problem of market and/or state failure; that voluntary measures tend to be ineffective; that market-based instruments tend to be regressive; that EU-level policies have driven climate policies in the latecomer EU Member States; and that lack of monitoring and weak enforcement are major obstacles to effective policy implementation. However, we also conclude that the evidence base these studies represent is surprisingly weak for such a high profile area. There is too little systematic climate policy evaluation work in the EU to support systematic evidence-based policy making. This reduces the scope for sound policy making in the short run and is a constraint to policy learning in the longer term.     

Uncertainty of forest carbon stock changes – implications to the total uncertainty of GHG inventory of Finland

Uncertainty analysis facilitates identification of the most important categories affecting greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory uncertainty and helps in prioritisation of the efforts needed for development of the inventory. This paper presents an uncertainty analysis of GHG emissions of all Kyoto sectors and gases for Finland consolidated with estimates of emissions/removals from LULUCF categories. In Finland, net GHG emissions in 2003 were around 69 Tg (±15 Tg) CO₂ equivalents. The uncertainties in forest carbon sink estimates in 2003 were larger than in most other emission categories, but of the same order of magnitude as in carbon stock change estimates in other land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) categories, and in N₂O emissions from agricultural soils. Uncertainties in sink estimates of 1990 were lower, due to better availability of data. Results of this study indicate that inclusion of the forest carbon sink to GHG inventories reported to the UNFCCC increases uncertainties in net emissions notably. However, the decrease in precision is accompanied by an increase in the accuracy of the overall net GHG emissions due to improved completeness of the inventory. The results of this study can be utilised when planning future GHG mitigation protocols and emission trading schemes and when analysing environmental benefits of climate conventions.     

Seismic refraction traveltime inversion for static corrections in a glaciated shield rock environment: a case study

A traveltime inversion technique is applied to model the upper ∼40 m of the subsurface of a glaciated shield rock area in order to calculate static corrections for a multi-azimuth multi-depth walk-away vertical seismic profile and a surface seismic reflection profile. First break information from a seismic refraction survey is used in conjunction with a ray-tracing program and an iterative damped least-squares inversion algorithm to create a two-dimensional model of the subsurface. The layout of the seismic survey required crooked seismic lines and substantial gaps in the source and receiver coverage to be accounted for. Additionally, there is substantial topographical variation and a complex geology consisting of glaciofluvial sediment and glacial till overlying a crystalline bedrock. The resolution and reliability of the models is measured through a parameter perturbation technique, normalized χ² values, root means square traveltime residuals and comparison to known geology.